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South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
in Regional

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted (edited)

Chill peeps, I know this winter has been bad, we are a family in here a team not enemies! Here is a detailed look at tomorrow morning

We will use 6-10am as the time zone

First off PPN... Most important right?

Net weather model.. yes                             NNM... Yes                                              Arpege NO                                         EURO4 yes and no bit hit and miss..                                     

56b0d3a19fd7d_net1.thumb.png.74dc540d44e   56b0d3e405a96_nnm1.thumb.png.2c3d36dfe0f56b0d447f2069_arp1.thumb.png.847427464cb56b0d47060913_euro4.thumb.gif.10549e965d

 

GFS Yes but this is not a high res

 56b0d4a03c6d7_GFS1.thumb.gif.69a8d80421d

 

TEMP 

NNM is cold but only till around 5am after it;s too warm this is a similar story with the net weather high res 

56b0d5046c9d3_temp1nnm.thumb.png.5e3919f                                  56b0d64bc6f7f_net2.thumb.png.cc31efd702d

 

Based on the above do I think someone will see a flake? Yes but if your around 125m + Will it settle? No way...   

 

 

 

Temps and dew points

 

Edited by Surrey
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Flash Elvis Explorer

Flash Elvis

Posted
  • Location: South East Essex
  • Location: South East Essex
Posted
8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

See the above if you have eyes :wink::D 

@Surrey well I don't really care, it would just be nice to see in this rather void winter.

proof is in the pudding Elvis.. Could end up a bust for all I know. However the parameters are there for snow to fall to low levels especially London/North Kent northwards.

As illustrated by that WBFL chart snowray provided.

I have eyes............. but some seriously un-trained eyes so if you wouldn't mind awfully explaining what I am actually meant to be looking at it would be a great help to me!!!

 

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Flash Elvis Explorer

Flash Elvis

Posted
  • Location: South East Essex
  • Location: South East Essex
Posted
7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Chill peeps, I know this winter has been bad, we are a family in here a team not enemies! Here is a detailed look at tomorrow morning

We will use 6-10am as the time zone

First off PPN... Most important right?

Net weather model.. yes                             NNM... Yes                                              Arpege NO                                         EURO4 yes and no bit hit and miss..                                     

56b0d3a19fd7d_net1.thumb.png.74dc540d44e   56b0d3e405a96_nnm1.thumb.png.2c3d36dfe0f56b0d447f2069_arp1.thumb.png.847427464cb56b0d47060913_euro4.thumb.gif.10549e965d

 

GFS Yes but this is not a high res

 56b0d4a03c6d7_GFS1.thumb.gif.69a8d80421d

 

TEMP 

NNM is cold but only till around 5am after it;s too warm this is a similar story with the net weather high res 

56b0d5046c9d3_temp1nnm.thumb.png.5e3919f                                  56b0d64bc6f7f_net2.thumb.png.cc31efd702d

 

Based on the above do I think someone will see a flake? Yes but if your around 125m + Will it settle? No way...   

 

 

 

Temps and dew points

 

Thank you!! :D

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well I am not into conspiracies particularly, but sometimes this Winter in particular it has looked as though someone has pushed a switch somewhere! I was watching this Northerly develop on the FAX charts in recent days and noticed the way it got shifted violently East in less than 24hrs seemed just a bit far fetched, it seemed to me that this should have been more of a toppler, but hey, what do I know...:fool:

Well now, that's a question, innit? :D Given the extreme marginality inherent in the present situation, my best guess would be not a lot...If that is the case - welcome to the club!:D

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well now, that's a question, innit? :D Given the extreme marginality inherent in the present situation, my best guess would be not a lot...If that is the case - welcome to the club!:D

:DWell even the experts can get caught out of course..

I can always make camp up one of the local hills tomorrow morning, take a flask of strong tea with me, Shooters Hill & Biggin Hill are both pretty local. But at least my little ramp today has given Elvis some hope of seeing a flake or two.:D

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Flash Elvis Explorer

Flash Elvis

Posted
  • Location: South East Essex
  • Location: South East Essex
Posted
5 minutes ago, snowray said:

:DWell even the experts can get caught out of course..

I can always make camp up one of the local hills tomorrow morning, take a flask of strong tea with me, Shooters Hill & Biggin Hill are both pretty local. But at least my little ramp today has given Elvis some hope of seeing a flake or two.:D

:drunk-emoji:

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
8 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

I have eyes............. but some seriously un-trained eyes so if you wouldn't mind awfully explaining what I am actually meant to be looking at it would be a great help to me!!!

 

Apologies I get frustrated. 

To quote from @fergieweather: Yes, it's been consistently modelled: this occlusion engages colder (<400 m WBFL) air as it trundles south tonight; some snow thus expected down to about 200 m as it runs across uplands of N England and beyond to N Wales/N Midlands.  From 200-300m, perhaps a couple of cm of snow in places; but several cm likely up above 400 m modelled by UKV, such as across the Peak District.

It is strange he has not commented on London, SE & EA where actually it is not as marginal...I suppose it is whether the precip survives the trundle S and the time of day.

Well the precip looks to make its way towards our region ideally before 9am as higher WBFL move in from the west, WBFL- the height above sea level where the temperature is at freezing point modelled by GFS is <100m WBFL at 6am for your part of SE Essex.... you would have no trouble seeing snow with that. 

I definitely think the hills might get a light covering the downs ect.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Flash Elvis said:

We got many 50 year olds in here then :rofl:

Even some of us that own up to it!:rofl:

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Flash Elvis Explorer

Flash Elvis

Posted
  • Location: South East Essex
  • Location: South East Essex
Posted
6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Apologies I get frustrated. 

To quote from @fergieweather: Yes, it's been consistently modelled: this occlusion engages colder (<400 m WBFL) air as it trundles south tonight; some snow thus expected down to about 200 m as it runs across uplands of N England and beyond to N Wales/N Midlands.  From 200-300m, perhaps a couple of cm of snow in places; but several cm likely up above 400 m modelled by UKV, such as across the Peak District.

It is strange he has not commented on London, SE & EA where actually it is not as marginal...I suppose it is whether the precip survives the trundle S and the time of day.

Well the precip looks to make its way towards our region ideally before 9am as higher WBFL move in from the west, WBFL- the height above sea level where the temperature is at freezing point modelled by GFS is <100m WBFL at 6am for your part of SE Essex.... you would have no trouble seeing snow with that. 

I definitely think the hills might get a light covering the downs ect.

If you get frustrated take it out on your Mrs please ...not me :rofl:

But thank you very much for an explanation...... although I will have a look at where is Essex we have any place above 100m!! 

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Plough King Rookie

Plough King

Posted
  • Location: Teddington (26ft asl)
  • Location: Teddington (26ft asl)
Posted

Hey gang missing the snow? This just popped up in my Facebook timeline. 7 years ago today, the last proper snowfall around these parts! Ah the memories! :)

image.jpeg

image.jpeg

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Time for a new thread methinks.

 

New thread here

 

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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