Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[knocker]

I'm a bit surprised by the above comments as the ecm run is similar to yesterdays 12z. The ridging into Greenland does appear to be quite transient.

[Radiating Dendrite]

The signal is still clearly there as far as I am concerned on the ECM.

Given how far out it is the idea will be played around with - you are not going to get every run looking identical. 

[Man With Beard]

27 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM has dropped the idea from last night unfortunately, still not bad at day 9 but the PV looks like it's getting organised over in Canada again. 

I wouldn't say "dropped", just not as dramatic. There's still a separation of the PV between Canada and the area east of Greenland. Still cold enough for wintry potential at this time of year. No chance, though, that two runs will be identical at T216/T240, of course. 

The run this morning's ECM has produced is probably more in line with the mean, but nothing to suggest yesterday's ECM is off the table either.

One thing that is consistent, though, is the GFS winding up a storm in the T144-T216 range. Surely one of their predicted lows will be close to the mark?

[bluearmy]

This mornings ECM op is more akin to yesterday's parallel run with the Arctic high not making connection through greeny with the Atlantic ridge. Still a decent nw European  cold trough results. 

given that we need amplification in the Atlantic to deliver a northerly of some kind, it's a bit of a worry that the gfs and GFSP are not playing ball at the moment with any kind of regularity. We know that ECM is prone to a bit of over amplification mid Atlantic so would like to see some x model agreement on this. at least GEM is on the right page overnight.  the fact that we have the GFSP and ecmp at the moment is good as it gives us an extra high res output to correlate with.

[Nick F]

The 00z ECMWF det not all that bad, has less amplitude with the ridge entering the NW Atlantic compared to last night's 12z, but we still get a northerly by day 10, mostly because the downstream trough digs deep enough into Europe.

 

00z GEM has a better look over the NW Atlantic/Greenland:

 

 

 

Edited January 4, 2016 by Nick F

[winterof79]

Main sail being hoist

What great charts these are,with what we've endured.

Winter is awakening.

[Paul_1978]

At present all I'm seeing is a temporary northern toppler, but will bow to those with better knowledge!

[Day 10]

16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Main sail being hoist

What great charts these are,with what we've endured.

Winter is awakening.

Yes the charts will no doubt play around with different scenarios before things are settled, another interesting period of model watching coming up, let's hope snow fans finally hit the jackpot!!!

[bluearmy]

8 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

At present all I'm seeing is a temporary northern toppler, but will bow to those with better knowledge!

Not too far from the truth Paul.  The extended ECM ens show this may be a more prolonged period of cold than two days but we are currently a fair way from a sustained cold pattern for nw Europe re the output.

[swilliam]

ECM mean looking pretty good at 240

850s at -6 in the North and -4 in Midlands

[Geordiesnow]

Not an awful lot of change in the outputs at the moment, pretty much a continuation on what we had in December really except without the Euro heights, it just mean the Atlantic based weather is more average in terms of temperatures and thats it, still no real cold showing on the models. 

Possibility of a ridge into Greenland is there but I seen this many of a time where the models overplay the ridge and as we get closer to the time and the ridge does not make it and we end up with a half hearted attempt of a Northerly. Unfortunately its a bit of a waiting game in the outputs at the moment 

Edited January 4, 2016 by ajpoolshark
removing personal comment to avoid misinterpretation

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON MONDAY JAN 4TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A deep depression is moving slowly East and SE while filling slowly across Southern Britain with a showery flow across the South. North and East Britain will be affected by slow moving occluded troughs in a strong SE to East flow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 2000ft just to the NE of Scotland to above 5000ft over SW England. Snowfall can be expected across the hills of Scotland today and tomorrow especially the mountains of NE Scotland

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times. Perhaps drier and colder for many later next week

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream incessantly crossing quickly East across the Atlantic and Southern England and France. Low pressure remains close by over the UK with the flow moving slightly further North in the second week but maintaining a strong and undulating profile across the Atlantic and the British Isles still even at Day 14.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows 14 days of unsettled and often windy conditions with gales and severe gales at times. In the first week rainfall will be very variable under slow moving Low pressure with colder air across the North giving rise to some snowfall over the hills. Then in the second week a severe storm is shown with severe gales for the South early next week which is the forerunner of a more undulating pattern between wet and windy spells and brighter colder weather with more scattered showers is shown but with only short drier spells in largely average temperatures still present late in the run.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning with the wet and very windy spell continuing over the next 10 days or so with a build of pressure across the UK late in the two week period bringing a change to fine and dry conditions for many with temperatures close to average with some night frosts and perhaps occasional rain again in the NW later as a SW flow there is renewed.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows a continuation of very wet and windy weather at times through the rest of this week and the weekend as Low pressure remains deep and centred across both the UK and the Atlantic Ocean with cyclonic winds across the UK throughout bringing rain and strong winds at times with some snow on northern hills and temperatures near to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving early in the week across the NE of the UK with broadly windy and showery SW winds elsewhere.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also shows an unsettled and often windy 10 days of weather to come across the UK with temperatures near average for most of the time. Winds will exceed gale or severe gale at times especially near coasts of the South and West. Later in the period winds are shown to turn to a colder NW or North flow and with continued unsettled weather across the UK rain will turn to snow at times and frost at night will become more widespread as pressure becomes High to the West and Low to the East. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM like UKMO shows continued Low pressure dominance just to the West and over the UK for the entire week long run with maintained unsettled weather with wind and rain at times mixed with brighter and showery spells in temperatures generally close to average.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows little respite in the wet and windy theme again this morning gradually drying out later next week as the whole Low pressure belt shifts east from the Atlantic over the UK to Northern Europe later with a pressure rise to the west allowing winds to turn more Northerly for a time early next week bringing wintry showers South to many areas and frosts at night at least for a time. unfortunately the mouth watering chart for coldies for day 10 has not been replicated this morning.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart looks similar to last nights with low pressure likely to lie to the NE in 10 days with Low pressure in the Western Atlantic too. In between and angled just to the West of the UK is a void where higher pressure is likely sufficient to at least offer an opportunity of drier and somewhat colder weather  for a time at least across the UK.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output longer term today shows no significant let up in the basically wet and windy conditions though a growing trend for High pressure to build temporarily at least to the West of the UK is hinted at still from 10 days.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  at 96.5 pts and GFS at 99.4 pts.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.3 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.5 pts to UKMO at 87.6 pts then GFS at 86.5 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 64.5 pts over GFS's 60.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 46.2 pts to 45.7 pts. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   All eyes will be drawn towards the ECM model this morning which did throw out a mouthwatering change in the weather next week resulting from High pressure development to the West and NW. Unfortunately but perhaps not surprisingly this has been watered down this morning but the general message is still present. S how does this fit in with the rest of the output this morning. Well in the interim period the general message for the next week or so remains very unsettled with Low pressure well South of normal positions across the UK or just to the West. While rainfall amounts will be very variable due to a lot of days of showery weather some longer spells of rain are still likely for all as troughs cross NE in the flow still getting hung up across NE Britain where some of the wettest weather will be experienced. Some of the showers will be heavy and squally too with hail and thunder possible across the South and West at times. Temperatures over the next week look like maintaining largely average values, cold enough at times for some snow across the hills of the North and NE. Then we come to next week when there remains plenty of evidence for limited change with rain and wind at times continuing in an Atlantic flow to other output which shows a drier interlude developing as the earlier mentioned rise of pressure to the West takes place. This would switch winds to a more northerly direction across the UK at least for a time with colder air moving South with some wintry showers at times near exposed coasts and hills and some frosts at night. My thoughts this morning remain as last night and I still think that despite a dampening down of the colder message within the models this morning I feel that colder weather will arrive from the North next week. It more importantly will mean drier weather for many with far less wind and rain and with lower temperatures overall frosts at night could develop, something quite rare this Winter so far. As for snowfall we need more runs and clarification nearer the time the exact synoptics later next week but if the Northerly flow does develop for a time then the usual areas exposed to the North could see some snow in the form of showers  

Next Update on Tuesday January 5th 2016 at 09:00 approx 

[karlos1983]

Overall I'm still happy with the outlook, we don't quite get the Artic High link up with the Atlantic High, but so very close on the GFS(P).

Pretty happy with the ECM Ensemble at 216, 

GFS op gets there as well really, but seems a bit to much energy coming out of N America pushing it east very quickly, which is not a massive surprise, it is the GFS, which does tend to favour a more mobile pattern historically.

 

I still remain very positive about mid month onwards.

Just a few weeks ago we were here

Karl

 

Edited January 4, 2016 by Osbourne One-Nil

[Steve_Alltami]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Overall I'm still happy with the outlook, we don't quite get the Artic High link up with the Atlantic High, but so very close on the GFS(P).

Pretty happy with the ECM Ensemble at 216, 

GFS op gets there as well really, but seems a bit to much energy coming out of N America pushing it east very quickly, which is not a massive surprise, it is the GFS, which does tend to favour a more mobile pattern historically.

 

I still remain very positive about mid month onwards.

Karl

 

I agree - things are looking so much more positive for later this month.

To be honest I didn't really expect much out of December and early January, but the whole NH pattern does seem to be evolving into something more favourable for our shores. 

[knocker]

The ext ecm is showing some signs of trying to join the party with a little more amplification in the eastern Atlantic with Azores HP ridging over the UK and the trough just east of Scandinavia down into eastern Europe. The consensus from the woodshed is that the trough is a little far east and that at this stage, with the ridging not extensive, that the surface analysis would favour more a settled anticyclonic influence over the UK  This would leave temps around average or maybe even a little above.

[That ECM]

Looks like the gfs is moving towards the ecm. T180 gfs is not far off the ecm mean. The ridge to the NE may make it less transient.

 

 

Edited January 4, 2016 by That ECM

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z GFS continues to show some cool -4/-5 850's being pulled in on Thursday with a snow risk for the spine of the UK and Scotland. Further into the run and high pressure is still shown to push up over the Arctic bringing a Northerly type flow. So the 'theme' continues for the jet to drop South by Mid-Month, And so will the variations on in-trim model runs..

Edited January 4, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

The GFSP finds both the correct Arctic and atlantic amplification in fi for us though the run still manages to pluck defeat from the jaws of victory. 

Good sign though

para ecm awaited 

[Polar Maritime]

A very disrupted PV by the end of the run with the Arctic/Greenland hight linking up drawing a nice N/Ely, Not to be taken literally of course..

Edited January 4, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[karlos1983]

This chart is a thing of beauty!! Almost complete perfection 

 

Very  uhhmm... what's the word...... oh yes, BLOCKY!!

 

oh WOW

Edited January 4, 2016 by karlos1983

[northwestsnow]

GFS6Z produces the goods in FI

Wasn't awake to see the earlier runs but still all to play for, certainly the flow becoming more PM than TM as times goes on.

At least we are now 'in the game' as far as colder weather is concerned.

[Polar Maritime]

Bitter cold N/Ely flow with snow for a good part of the UK. Winter proper at last showing! 

Edited January 4, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

Looks like the GFS has imploded with some big differences between runs. Upstream unfortunately chaos seems to have descended in the modelling. The state forecasts are now not sure whether the cold will dig along way south into the southern plains or be pulled eastwards.

The digging south option we'd prefer because this would suggest a more amplified pattern in the eastern USA and therefore the PV held further west.

This mornings ECM whilst not as exciting as last nights output is still okay and given where we were in December I'd like to look at the positives.

Edited January 4, 2016 by nick sussex

[bobbydog]

GFS goes the long way round but gets there in the end. positive signs...

 

[SLEETY]

well will the meto mention any sigms of this in next update i hope ,of colder weather 2nd half of jan