Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[Daniel*]

Not strictly model related but in Ian's absence hopefully temporarily I believe it is justified. 

Very encouraging, indeed. 

The best day yet this winter, for solid indications in a break of norm -  and potentially real proper winter weather for British Isles. We've been waiting a long time...

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Judging by what the models are showing, there's little need for despondency: the MJO is looking like progressing through phases 6,7 and 8; the NAO/AO both look like going negative (I don't know to what extent) and GP's view of February and March, form a teleconnection perspective, look quite positive...

From my recollection of 1975, February, March, April, May - and even early June - can deliver the goods...Today is 03/01/16!!!!

To be honest come may,June the last thing i want is snow and cold weather but besides that it is all to play for Jan-March in my eyes.

Edited January 3, 2016 by booferking

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

To be honest come may,June the last thing i want is snow and cold weather but besides that it is all to play for Jan-March in my eyes.

Absolutely, boofer - May 1975 was horrendous!

[Nick F]

I'm late to the ECM party, so don't really have a great deal to add, suffice to say the 12 GFS has similar build of arctic high from WAA over Alaska, but it really needs to work on the WAA/amplification north across the NW Atlantic, the 8-10 day 12z GFS op v EC det 500mb below shows less amplification from GFS over NW Atlantic:

Always wary that EC can amplify the flow too much on occasions, the northerly day 10 reaches the Canary Islands! But it's quite clear the Arctic high will have an influence over the Greenland area over coming days, it's whether the strong jet over the Atlantic can weaken and buckle enough to take advantage of rising heights up here to build a N Atlantic omega block.

Anyway, the CPC analog chart made today is a good look ...

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Nick F

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Not strictly model related but in Ian's absence hopefully temporarily I believe it is justified. 

Very encouraging, indeed. 

The best day yet this winter, for solid indications in a break of norm -  and potentially real proper winter weather for British Isles. We've been waiting a long time...

Aye, and there is nowt preventing Ian from posting, apart from Ian himself.

[bluearmy]

ECM parallel is out and is similar in that it builds an Atlantic ridge days 8/10. The difference in the Arctic is the profile of the Alaskan ridge which does throw up an impressive block into the polar area but it doesn't link up to the mid Atlantic ridge through greeny. It's a bit further north to begin with. It looks as if it might do a few days later but then would the mid Atlantic ridge survive a few more days? The parallel does look more correct in respect of the expected trough over n America than the op did so perhaps we need to be a bit cautious about counting a proper greeny high just yet.  At day 10 it is cold over nw Europe in general with a better carved out upper trough than the op showed. 

[booferking]

The pub run is looking good @144 think we might see some nice blocking on this run.

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly at T360 does show some height increases Greenland/ Iceland and and some WAA over Greenland but there is a disconnect with the Azores HP and no interruption the SW/W flow emanating from the SE of the US into the UK and the trough to the east. So this would indicate a quieter spell of weather with temps around average or even a little above.

[chionomaniac]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Thats presumably the 00z you are looking at ed!  There is a depression in the west Atlantic which does look like it will break through the Azores /greeny link but at day 10, best to ignore detail. I agree that the overall trend from that run looks good in tandem with the new 12z op. 

Now can I say it, now that it has updated to the 12Z parallel?! Stronger Atlantic/Greenland block at day 10 than the previous run and current det. Nothing is getting through that block! (#strongpolarflow)

[Mucka]

Liking the way the 18z is going

[Ali1977]

This looks like a big improvement on the pub run, much better set up in the Arctic...similar to the ECM....

[radiohead]

I'm surprised at the lack of comments on the nasty looking storm approaching...could be quite bad if the GFS is close to being right.

 

[Methuselah]

An 'improvement on the Pub Run'? It is the pub Run...

[Allseasons-Si]

The Alaskan ridge is heading for greenland on this run at 174 hrs,this is better

the 12z at 180 hrs had it heading for Russia

so a improvement there.

a link up cometh,nice WAA off Newfoundland and further west than the 12z

 

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Now can I say it, now that it has updated to the 12Z parallel?! Stronger Atlantic/Greenland block at day 10 than the previous run and current det. Nothing is getting through that block! (#strongpolarflow)

The Atlantic looks a better block but the link through Greenland to the Arctic high isn't there by day 10.  I think the trend for a northerly flow is pretty well set in the 8/12 day timeframe. It's whether we can get a background upper pattern to sustain a cold outlook for nw Europe which is now the question. 

[Nick F]

When the EPS mean -anomaly for 500mb heights and 850mb temps look like this at day 10, you know that the EC det has reasonable support.

Colder Arctic air displaced across Northern Europe and N America as shown by the colder anomalies, warm anomalies Arctic and Greenland.

Anyway, 18z GFS looking more amplified around day 8 than 12z GFS ...

Edited January 3, 2016 by Nick F

[Mucka]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The Atlantic looks a better block but the link through Greenland to the Arctic high isn't there by day 10.  I think the trend for a northerly flow is pretty well set in the 8/12 day timeframe. It's whether we can get a background upper pattern to sustain a cold outlook for nw Europe which is now the question. 

Yes 18z better but not quite there. Let's hope ECM has a repeat performance tomorrow. 

[Polar Maritime]

The Jet is further South on tonight's GFS run, With heights a little stronger into Greenland/Arctic. Detail aside, Tonight's model runs are showing excellent trends to something much colder mid-month with the ECMWF  now on board.  

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes 18z better but not quite there. Let's hope ECM has a repeat performance tomorrow. 

I was co paring the ECM para to the ECM op mucka !

[ukpaul]

We could well be in red warning territory if that comes off across a heavily populated area -

Gusting to -

Mean -

Edited January 3, 2016 by ukpaul

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

I was co paring the ECM para to the ECM op mucka !

Oh right LOL

Hard to keep up sometimes. 

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, radiohead said:

I'm surprised at the lack of comments on the nasty looking storm approaching...could be quite bad if the GFS is close to being right.

 

T+183 too far off to worry about yet ... Models haven't nailed this Thursday's secondary low or wave moving NE judging by different tracks, a low that was a lot deeper on previous runs.

Wrt to Atlantic ridge, alas 18z GFS quickly flattens any amplification ... Let's hope 00z ECM in the morning continues where the 12z left us.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I was co paring the ECM para to the ECM op mucka !

Never 'co pare' BA, it can be dangerous!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Team

Aam, Glaam, MJO, GWO, QBO, ENSO, Solar , Lunar....we didn't start the fire...there's a song somewhere .....but focusing on this potential northerly...I think we need to keep aware of this period 10th onwards for a serious impactual storm......Its rained hard here all day  and the surface water is incredible, more continuous heavy rain will cause problems.  This has bee showing consistently

 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20160103/18/186/h850t850eu.png 

 

BFTP

 

 

[stewfox]

6 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

We're could well be in red warning territory if that comes off across a heavily populated area -

Gusting to -

Mean -

More of a worry at T24 rather then T192 regarding the specfics