Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[A.J]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Yes we need model support/ideally cross model coverage support of cross polar functions. 

However if one model got its claws into such' evolution it would be the Ecm for myself. ..

Then onward pick up from other output. 

actually, we don't need cross model support/coverage......we need it to actually happen in real life and not in the virtual world....just saying 

[Winter Cold]

Lovely end to ECM tonight! Isnt it just lovely for coldies to actualy see some eye candy for once. We really need this!

Having said that, I feel a little frustrated at this up-coming week. Quite a lot of sub-zero 850s midlands northwards and yet forecasts are for rain.

Taking Sheffield as an example (which doesnt do too badly usually) then we can see for Wednesday there are -4s and -5s about and Thursday there are -3 to -4s, and yet met office website for example going for temps around 5c and rain. Excruciatingly close to a lot of snow lol, its agonising. You'd think -5s in early January might have delivered!

    

I really hope that tonights ECM can gain support over the coming week, and remains with this theme, but as we know with ECM FI charts it still sensible to keep our feet on the ground....for now!

Ill post the 850s from the T240 chart though as its a beauty and us coldies need something to smile at

[mountain shadow]

The 0z ECM mean had a decent Greenie block at day 10 so tonight's run is know doubt one of the jackpot runs.

[Cloud 10]

Look at the difference over the pole and east of Greenland on tonights ECM 96 hrs compared to its prediction from a couple of days ago.

 

tonight.....2 days ago..

 

Looks as though the -AO has been underestimated,and there could well be more short term upgrades in the next couple of days.

[chris55]

Oh! ECM is rather a nice run!  Out at days 8-9-10 yes, but to newbies its a good thing to look out for!

If there is yellow associated with high pressure at 500hpa it means its stable and "real" lol. And as far as positioning goes this is rather good for cold prospects to the UK, strong Arctic high linking with North Atlantic high and a trough to the east! Lovely ha.

[Shuga ice]

Ecm looking ok near the end of the run but for a nationwide event an easterly component is required.  Northerlies are only good for exposed coastal areas and hills, leaving much of the country dry & bright.  There are a few exceptions of course but these are few and far between.  Looking for upgrades from the east on future runs.

[Coopsy]

3 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Ecm looking ok near the end of the run but for a nationwide event an easterly component is required.  Northerlies are only good for exposed coastal areas and hills, leaving much of the country dry & bright.  There are a few exceptions of course but these are few and far between.  Looking for upgrades from the east on future runs.

Not always - often we've had northerlies and cold air embedded with lows coming through the channel affecting a lot of the southern half of the country with snow. Right now any cold will do me so a northerly will be much better than the last 5/6 weeks

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Ecm looking ok near the end of the run but for a nationwide event an easterly component is required.  Northerlies are only good for exposed coastal areas and hills, leaving much of the country dry & bright.  There are a few exceptions of course but these are few and far between.  Looking for upgrades from the east on future runs.

Hi Shuga

taking this ecm run for a example,that would produce an easterly further down the line if the right conditions would prevail,plus there would be disturbances running down from the north

[TSNWK]

6 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Ecm looking ok near the end of the run but for a nationwide event an easterly component is required.  Northerlies are only good for exposed coastal areas and hills, leaving much of the country dry & bright.  There are a few exceptions of course but these are few and far between.  Looking for upgrades from the east on future runs.

December 2010 was a very similar set-up to what ECM has chosen to offer us this evening.. And believe you me, it was cracking for snow down her in north west Kent..

[Shuga ice]

1 minute ago, Nemesis said:

Not always - often we've had northerlies and cold air embedded with lows coming through the channel affecting a lot of the southern half of the country with snow. Right now any cold will do me so a northerly will be much better than the last 5/6 weeks

Like I said, there are a few exceptions, the winter of January 2010 had a low move down from the north which ended up in the channel giving the south a good dumping, but even then there was a continental feed.  This is what I will be looking for on future runs.

[Shuga ice]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi Shuga

taking this ecm run for a example,that would produce an easterly further down the line if the right conditions would prevail,plus there would be disturbances running down from the north

I agree with your thoughts and I believe many on here will be looking for a flow from the east on future runs.

[Coopsy]

4 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Like I said, there are a few exceptions, the winter of January 2010 had a low move down from the north which ended up in the channel giving the south a good dumping, but even then there was a continental feed.  This is what I will be looking for on future runs.

Fair point - don't get me wrong living in Kent and having experience the holy grail on Jan 1987 my heart skips a beat when I see that Scandi High and those easterlies form. I just hope we just get relief from the rain, a cold spell wherever it comes from then a real beast from the east to finish....not too much to ask is it? lol

Latest runs do look good though so fingers crossed 

[tight isobar]

25 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

actua fly, we don't need cross model support/coverage......we need it to actually happen in real life and not in the virtual world....just saying 

Id "Personaly" have at least cross model/IF not some output support.

Rather Than the oracale, of one model and ITs ens noting Only to be another false dawn!which Atm....IS that due to far reaching time parameters

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All, The Ecm at day ten shows a Classic wintry spell for the Uk, The North Pole Warms while Britain starts to shiver,,,,,

[Rocheydub]

19 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Ecm looking ok near the end of the run but for a nationwide event an easterly component is required.  Northerlies are only good for exposed coastal areas and hills, leaving much of the country dry & bright.  There are a few exceptions of course but these are few and far between.  Looking for upgrades from the east on future runs.

Oh good God! It's 8 days away from even starting. There will be great variances on every run at that distance, as you well know. Let's get the long wave pattern in place and heights over Greeny and then we can discuss how cold it will be and where it will snow!

[Liam J]

31 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

Ecm looking ok near the end of the run but for a nationwide event an easterly component is required.  Northerlies are only good for exposed coastal areas and hills, leaving much of the country dry & bright.  There are a few exceptions of course but these are few and far between.  Looking for upgrades from the east on future runs.

Incorrect, easterlies very rarely deliver nationwide snow either as many western areas are usually cold but mainly dry, but as with northerlies there are some exceptions. Get a few disturbances/troughs tracking south or even a polar low (rare) in a bitter Arctic northerly then many places could potentially get a good dumping. ECM throws out probably the best run of the winter and you're complaining! Lol....Currently nothing really to suggest anything coming at us from the east so you may be waiting a while for it to appear... I just hope the ECM is onto something

Edited January 3, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Ali1977]

Let's see what the Ens say, it would be nice for some support, but I'd be surprised. Let's see if the METO outlook changes tonight if there is. 

Either way, busiest spell on this forum this year I reckon....that's good to see.

[bluearmy]

Will be interesting to see if this suite takes the ECM ens mean AO as negative as the GEFS and gem have been. So far, it's been around -2 whilst the others have been predicting -3.

[chionomaniac]

Good strong west based -NAO anomaly on EPS out to T+204 so far

[Allseasons-Si]

Eyes down for the 12z gfs(P)

20:30 start,i think.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[nick sussex]

Given this is at day ten this is a very promising mean ensemble for the ECM:

 

[Captain Shortwave]

I must say, this isn't bad for a anomaly at day 10 and the respective surface analysis

                        

 

Certainly a good starting point to be honest. One of the key things to look out for is for as big an area of weak heights as possible forming over Greenland around day 5/6. This will prevent too much cold air transferring from the Siberian lobe to the Canadian sector. By keeping the Canadian lobe weak this should allow a sharper trough to develop upstream which will help build a ridge in the Atlantic. 

Can we build on this then

Edited January 3, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[terrier]

Let's see if we get cross model support before we all get giddy over one ecm output. As we all know it's lead us up the garden path on more than one occasion.  As I still remember that famous ecm.

[Rocheydub]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Given this is at day ten this is a very promising mean ensemble for the ECM:

 

Now that is impressive. This is the most impressive 10 day mean yet this winter. Fairly strong support so!

[Man With Beard]

This ECM mean T240 chart is not a million miles away from the op.

GFS T240 mean would have potential to go the same way

Not forgetting the GFS op isn't far off the Arctic / Greenland HP link-up too (rather more active Atlantic than ECM op, though)

The chase is on!