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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Northern hemisphericaly.

And its different gravy!

The link to the split....

Onwards and upwards from that perspective! 

ECH1-216-1.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Two gfs runs prior to the next ecm. Sure would be nice to see it move towards the ecm. In times of change we get some erratic runs so climb aboard.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Now THIS would bring winter to the UK. 

ECH1-240.GIF?03-0

This is no outlier IMO - this chart has been coming for a couple of days. Arctic Heights meandering towards a weak Greenland ridge = BINGO for a snowy, arctic blast over the UK. 

Can it be replicated in the next day or so? 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM is the best run of the winter & has a large enough amplitude of the wave in the western Atlantic to reach into the pole & beyond ( this is how 2010 started with the vertical advection )

lets keep the feet on the ground as cross polar highs are notoriously hard to forecast -

linking the Atlantic high to a cross polar high needs perfect timing & phasing

never the less - great to look at!

image.thumb.png.70e60615c973cc95ab367266

Vertical advection?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Now that I've got that ramp out of my system if I'm being a bit picky the pattern could be a bit further se and as Steve has mentioned that cross polar high is difficult to achieve.

Earlier the ECM sinks the jet and if that can be edged further south in future outputs then this also brings the chance of some snow south with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
On 02/01/2016 at 3:34 PM, Catacol said:

 

Now come on Knocker :) You know everyone on here had given up on any snow chances from these current synoptics days ago, even the chosen one lol. You know where people's attentions are turning to on this latest run :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Yup feet on ground for now, one run with no cross model support, here is JMA.

JN192-21.GIF?03-12

Let's hope for positive developments tomorrow. ECM ensembles should be worth a look too.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well given the garbage synoptics of December I lost myself then! lol

Ignore the twitterati and the MJO derision from some quarters. Those synoptics would have zero chance of appearing without the MJO.

Here here nick!

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

Let's see what the ecm ensembles bring :) Can't help feeling the ecm op has over amplified again! Hope I am so wrong. The snow starved deserve some snow sustinence more than ever right now.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, TSNWK said:

Here here nick!

There are still a lot of hurdles to jump and UK horses have a habit of falling at the last hurdle!

If this was the Grand National we'd only be on the first circuit! You won't hear another ramp from me until such time as we're sure the horse is on the run in.

Its at least nice to see some interesting synoptics and with the MJO progress at least this gives some background support. The odds have shortened for something colder but its whether its a snap or spell we'll have to wait and see.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Wow the Ecm 12z turns into a beautiful run for coldies with an increasing chance of snow, ice and widespread frosts from the north. We coldies deserve something like this to verify following the very mild tropical conditions which have dominated this abysmally sorry excuse of a winter so far...please Ecm for once come true..There is longevity in that cold spell well beyond T+240 hours too...BANK!!:cold::D

168_mslp850uk.png?cb=127.png

192_thickuk.png?cb=127.png

192_mslp850uk.png?cb=127.png

216_thickuk.png?cb=127.png

216_mslp850uk.png?cb=127.png

240_thickuk.png?cb=127.png

240_mslp850uk.png?cb=127.png

240_mslp850.png?cb=127.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Let's see what the ecm ensembles bring :) Can't help feeling the ecm op has over amplified again! Hope I am so wrong. The snow starved deserve some snow sustinence more than ever right now.

Nooooooo Blizzard don't say that. At least the runs from this morning have been bettered and the ecm is a gem toward the end. So let's hope this trend continues...

Edited by Minus 10
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Ice days and deep snow in the bleak mid winter.... If only!! 

ecmt5.thumb.png.aa23de3d327460a4677d2f5becms12.thumb.png.42f64a00c63f93de74fb656

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Yes we need model support/ideally cross model coverage support of cross polar functions. 

However if one model got its claws into such' evolution it would be the Ecm for myself. ..

Then onward pick up from other output. 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Fantastic ECM run enhanced by the large cold pool in waiting to our North East. Alas, I suspect it will have less support than Accrington Stanley in the first round of the Johnstone's paint trophy amongst the ENS.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

i call it that ( & For most its easy to understand )

to get a Greenland high ( a decent sustainable one ) we need WAA up the western side of Greenland with a large amplitude wave -

when you see WAA that appears to be near vertical ( even though it isnt ) on the 2D meteociel charts you know your in business-

the ECM picked this up in 2010 before the GFS & this was the chart

 

 

image.jpg

If you look at the ECM 240 for the same area of Greenland its a very similar story -

image.thumb.jpg.f0eebbe153f2c67d646acab0

s

 

I assumed that's is what you meant but I just wondered whether it might not be confusing to newbies because as read it means vertical horizontal transport as you know. Anyway yes all caused by the Nor'easter dragging some warm air upand as such I would be wary of reading too much into that last frame of the run at this stage. Just my opinion of course.

ecm_t850_anom_natl_11.thumb.png.2bf3b240

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Fantastic ECM run enhanced by the large cold pool in waiting to our North East. Alas, I suspect it will have less support than Accrington Stanley in the first round of the Johnstone's paint trophy amongst the ENS.

Probably a mild outlier! lol  I'd rather the pattern was edged further se to give a bit more margin for error.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Hopefully something is indeed stirring in knocker's woodshed at last, this is the best run of the winter so far from the Ecm in my opinion, lovely stuff!!:D

240_mslp850uk.png?cb=127.png

240_thickuk.png?cb=951.png

240_mslp850.png?cb=127.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs has been picking up this signal for a few days now,this is the 240 hrs chart from the 06z this morning

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.95c26a0c8bf6bbb6f6

the ecm for the same time frame bar six hrs,so the ecm a bit bullish at getting that cross polar flow

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.df139ecd4facd5c38

it's not until past 300 hrs on the 06z gfs that we get that cross polar flow

gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.6c9259355b214cc68d

the 12z gfs wasn't there this time but lets see if the gfs(p) will pick this up and the 18z too.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs

What time the ENS out pls?

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

With the tendency of ECM to blow up heights in the D8-10 range and even get ensemble support we have to wait for this setup to get within the T168 range before we can get interested. Not that this is wild fantasy output, as the EPO block was likely a trigger for some changes around D8 wherever it migrated to. The arctic has been trending as the favourite in the latest runs. 

I would be shocked if this had much ensemble support at this range but hopefully a good starting point of 20% would keep possibilities alive, so it could build on that tomorrow (or not). It does appear like another op run in the cold cluster as we saw with that recent non easterly, but ECM is due to get one correct after so many fails in the last few winters.

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