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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
8 minutes ago, MPG said:

And where's knocker? Need those westerly anomolies to keep our feet on the ground! :)

Busy but the anomalies aren't of much use with the immediate evolutionn which is down to the det, outputs. The ecm does though give a good overview and it can be seen how knife edgy the position is. Depressions running NE into the UK before swinging SE which of course is where the snow potential lies. Actually my main concern is how much rain will this progresion dump on the north.

ecm_eps_z500a_natl_9.thumb.png.aa64d2576

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
1 minute ago, knocker said:

Busy but the anomalies aren't of much use with the immediate evolutionn which is down to the det, outputs. The ecm does though give a good overview and it can be seen how knife edgy the position is. Depressions running NE into the UK before swinging SE which of course is where the snow potential lies. Actually my main concern is how much rain will this progresion dump on the north.

ecm_eps_z500a_natl_9.thumb.png.aa64d2576

Thanks knocker. Your first post for 4 hours, the same time period as the 12z and the discussion regarding them! Is that chart showing rain for the north?

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
13 minutes ago, MPG said:

Thanks knocker. Your first post for 4 hours, the same time period as the 12z and the discussion regarding them! Is that chart showing rain for the north?

As you know these charts do not indicate rainfall but if you wind on the ops run to T228 you will find a low 964mb centred on N.Ireland with associated fronts running SE through England so some very wet and windy conditions

To be honest I didn't see much discussion during those four hours................more a succession of soundbites. Then perhaps I wasn't paying attention.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Please remember there is a banter thread open, Lets stick to what the model's are showing as things are moving pretty fast now. Thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
38 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Of course everyone needs to remember the other golden rule in situations like this - don't tell your families. Kiss of death that. 

This is golden rule number one. 

Tell Dad and up pops a shortwave, everytime. 

Edited by Spah1
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35191216?ns_mchannel=social&ns_campaign=bbc_weather&ns_source=twitter&ns_linkname=news_central
Just want to say I think the bbc just forecast that they think its going to be wet for the first few weeks. But now they've show on there latest forecast that it could with low confidence be getting colder weather from the east ! , maybe the change is really most certainly on the foot.

They also talked about a possible established high in scandi !!!!

Edited by SnappyClap
Missed out info
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Again can we please stick to discussion around what the models are showing please, There are banter threads/Winter threads/BBC weather threads already open. 

Many Thanks, PM.

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
9 minutes ago, knocker said:

As you know these charts do not indicate rainfall but if you wind on the ops run to T228 you will find a low 964mb centred on N.Ireland with associated fronts running SE through England so some very wet and windy conditions

To be honest I didn't see much discussion during those four hours................more a succession of soundbites. Then perhaps I wasn't paying attention.

Knocker your a gem :) especially your last paragraph!

228 is FI? How about the colder solutions within the reasonable reliable time frame.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Only just caught up with the ECM. Not bad but still only scores a 6/10. The UKMO looks the best of tonights outputs with the low likely to disrupt more favourably.

Both the ECM and UKMO develop more amplitude upstream at T144hrs which helps to pull some of the PV further west, the GFS flat bias coming into play so hopefully that backtracks to the Euros.

I think the key given that the Scandi block morphs into the Scrussian one is that a lobe of high pressure holds on to the north/nw of the UK at T144hrs, the more we see this ridging nw to Iceland the better forcing on the low.

At this range the boundary between snow and rain is likely to vary so the ECM whilst okay is finely balanced, any westwards corrections would increase the margin for error.

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Posted
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
  • Location: Fettercain/Edzell
1 hour ago, Neiller22 said:

One post says cold and snow.  Another says cold and rain! How will we ever learn on here with such contrasting views! At least it's all heading in right direction. 

I would really appreciate if the wise and experienced contributors to the forum would "simplify" the possible model outcomes - for "baby" learners  -  ie those with only basic understanding of meteorology.

Previous occasional explanatory posts have been very helpful.

At the moment many posters seem to be commenting in riddles.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

What is interesting is that there is a right royal battle ahead.   There is a massive block developing/developed to our E/NE and this is getting buffeted by some stormy Atlantic weather which I think will be on the more stormy side of runs shown around New Year.  Now its the interaction which will decide where we go as IMO this blocking will be within vicinity for some considerable time.  So chances are afoot....either way.  My thoughts remain unfavourable, but it won't take much for pretty wintry conditions to take over.

 

BFTP 

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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
5 minutes ago, ciel said:

I would really appreciate if the wise and experienced contributors to the forum would "simplify" the possible model outcomes - for "baby" learners  -  ie those with only basic understanding of meteorology.

Previous occasional explanatory posts have been very helpful.

At the moment many posters seem to be commenting in riddles.

Just read and learn mate!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Only just caught up with the ECM. Not bad but still only scores a 6/10. The UKMO looks the best of tonights outputs with the low likely to disrupt more favourably.

Both the ECM and UKMO develop more amplitude upstream at T144hrs which helps to pull some of the PV further west, the GFS flat bias coming into play so hopefully that backtracks to the Euros.

I think the key given that the Scandi block morphs into the Scrussian one is that a lobe of high pressure holds on to the north/nw of the UK at T144hrs, the more we see this ridging nw to Iceland the better forcing on the low.

At this range the boundary between snow and rain is likely to vary so the ECM whilst okay is finely balanced, any westwards corrections would increase the margin for error.

Indeed Nick, I must admit I looked at the ecm and thought "meh, not bad, but not great", good for some, but not a widespread snow event, just plain rain in areas south of the Midlands, really want more of a shift west and the low to be  more elongated running to France not Benelux, then you can look at uk wide cold potential. But still a welcomed change nonetheless. Good steps forward. I look forward to the 00z....... I think...

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext ecm in the later stages is going for the vortex N. Canada with a trough down the eastern seaboard and positive heights pushing up to the SW of the UK. This would portend drier conditions.

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Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset

Evening gang ,just popped in for a gander and our forum is well and truly lively ,just like the weather at the moment .

looking at todays runs including tonights not boring by any means with plenty of heavy rain strong winds and now colder 850 s getting pulled in ,my gut feeling is our block to our east or north east could turn up trumps but we could sit on the boundary of any meaningfull cold ,so Iff its out there we will get hints from met office outlook [slight hints today regards colder dryer in the east ] keep an eye on that important 144 hr chart from ECM  also keep a beedy eye on atlantic lows we need them further south ,of course i would love a good nationwide snow event but i am willing to wait perhaps with a dry slot first for our flooded folk on this island ,but all in all some very newsworthy weather Again on the way ,STellas all round gang ,going out for a walk with the hound  cheers .:drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Cohen has updated his blog for those interested: 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 minute ago, shaky said:

Gfs 18z pretty much same as 12z!!!not moved towards the ecm and ukmo yet!!

Huge differences as early at 96 shaky, GFS much deeper and further east with the atlantic.

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Huge differences as early at 96 shaky, GFS much deeper and further east with the atlantic.

Gfs not much change not going with the Euros.gfs-0-144.png?18?18

Edited by snowice
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