Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[Summer Sun]

Latest animation of the storm more rain for the areas which don't need any more

 

 

 

Edited January 24, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Updated warnings 30mm to 60mm in the warning area with 100mm to 150mm for the most exposed parts of north and south wales

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1453766400&regionName=uk

[Liam J]

This would be pretty nasty to say the least for the northern half of the UK, blizzards over Scotland... The GFS does like to show the day after tomorrow scenarios, maybe one day it'll come off!! 

Hurricane force winds.

Gusts over 100mph.

Blizzards.

Edited January 24, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[weather09]

Does look a strong jet coming out of NA from mid-next week, so possible, though relatively small changes in 500 trough/ridge pattern and jet profile means wild swings at the surface.  00z/06z GFS.  Flat jet, no low; amplified jet, deep low.  

 

 

[BA Baracus]

The storm in USA is called Jonas. Will this be renamed in UK and Ireland when it hits next week?

[January Snowstorm]

33 minutes ago, BA Baracus said:

The storm in USA is called Jonas. Will this be renamed in UK and Ireland when it hits next week?

Interesting question.

It would be a bit stupid if they did.

Going by the rules they set themselves they might have to rename it

Edited January 24, 2016 by January Snowstorm

[The PIT]

29 minutes ago, BA Baracus said:

The storm in USA is called Jonas. Will this be renamed in UK and Ireland when it hits next week?

All depends on strong it is when it gets here.

On another note it's interesting that they've got the wind direction wrong in the warnings for Tuesday  saying southerly instead of south westerly.

[weather09]

16 minutes ago, The PIT said:

On another note it's interesting that they've got the wind direction wrong in the warnings for Tuesday  saying southerly instead of south westerly.

Strongest winds look near enough southerly to me on current outputs.  Actual surface winds tend to be more backed in relation to isobars on NWP, and also ahead of fronts. Does veer SSW-SW'erly with passage of cold front, though.  But highest winds, nevertheless, coming in from the south. 

[The PIT]

Looks very south west to me

 

[The PIT]

Anyways looking like we're heading into another period of very windy weather and wet as well for Tuesday at least

[Zenarcher]

18z GFS has 86 mph mean wind speed for Fair Isle on Friday.

Still changes at this point from the models with not all agreeing yet but the ECM and GFS have been hinting on some stormy weather towards the end of the week.

One of GFS 18z Ensembles is showing this.

[The PIT]

A slight downgrade for Tuesday for us slight upgrade for Ireland. Wednesday looking stronger. Friday looking the daddy of them so far time for downgrades yet (normal procedure) even upgrade (extremely rare)

[radiohead]

20 hours ago, BA Baracus said:

The storm in USA is called Jonas. Will this be renamed in UK and Ireland when it hits next week?

That's not an official name. In the US, winter storms are named by the Weather Channel, but this is not recognized by the National Weather Service unlike the official storm naming system here. The only time a storm would retain an existing name here would be if it was an ex-tropical system which had been named by the NHC already.

[cowdog]

8 hours ago, Zenarcher said:

18z GFS has 86 mph mean wind speed for Fair Isle on Friday.

Still changes at this point from the models with not all agreeing yet but the ECM and GFS have been hinting on some stormy weather towards the end of the week.

One of GFS 18z Ensembles is showing this.

Big issue with Friday as well as the wind is the rain. Its delivering significant rainfall amounts, last run had the worst over western Scotland and then England but it could be anywhere given this far out. Worrying factor for that is that Western Scotland looks to be badly hit from Tuesday onwards, really could do with Friday and Saturdays storms moving north or south as there will be flooding in Scotland if it plays out as shown at the moment - which thankfully it probably won't, but still really do not want it to play out as is shown.

Edited January 25, 2016 by cowdog

[Summer Sun]

I wonder if we'll see Storm Gertrude at some point this week

[cowdog]

Weather warning is now out for Friday's storm, along with a further downgrade of the rainfall totals the Met expects for Tuesdays.

Fridays text -

 

Quote

Another area of low pressure is expected to move quickly east across the Atlantic later in the week, bringing a spell of very windy weather to all parts of the UK, whilst rain will be persistent and heavy over west facing hills. Rainfall totals of 20-40 mm are expected fairly widely within the yellow area with as much as 80 mm possible over some high ground exposed to the southwest in western Scotland, northern England and Wales. This Alert will updated over the coming days.

 

[The PIT]

Little or no change wind wise for tomorrow. Friday a downgrade for us but still nasty for Scotland while Saturday could be nasty for South Yorkshire. Still too far away yet to be firm on the details.

[cowdog]

13 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Little or no change wind wise for tomorrow. Friday a downgrade for us but still nasty for Scotland while Saturday could be nasty for South Yorkshire. Still too far away yet to be firm on the details.

Keeps switching on the detail as you say for tomorrow, never mind Friday's. Worryingly while the wind for tomorrow keeps going lower the rainfall isn't e.g. 12z Euro4 run has about 100mm falling in Cumbria in 24 hours. The area and worst affected keeps switching along with the totals and that storm starts in 12 hours! Can imagine the Met are scratching their heads with the one tomorrow as it could be relatively nothing or it could also lead to flooding somewhere.

[The PIT]

Interesting the warnings are mainly for rain and not for wind. I'd have thought both would got their own warning.

[Weather26]

It looks like a question of when rather then if as to when Gertrude gets named.

[Mapantz]

Poor buggers!

[William Grimsley]

17 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Poor buggers!

I'm quite concerend about Dartmoor actually. 100 mm + could cause hurrendous flooding.

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

Poor buggers!

Its  examples like this  that also show how relatively dry the eastern part of england is   comparable to the west of the uk     truely remarkable

[Mapantz]

18Z totals ..

[The PIT]

Fridays storm downgraded to simply breezy for us but still nasty for Scotland.