Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[snow freak]

god this winter is sooo boring

[Bristawl Si]

It's certainly fast turning into the Downgrade Winter.

Still some of the cold stalwarts bigging up a forthcoming limp-wristed cold rain affair (imby).

I really hope that we see a Warm dry 'early' Spring now. Not much chance i guess considering other global weather patterns but one can live in hope.

[cobbett]

55 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

eh? are you seriously suggesting theres NO 'i know better then you' attitude in winter?

fantasy chasing is pointless, i see no merit at all in getting all wound up about some fantasy chart because it nearly always leads to disappointment. its childish imho.

numbers on here in winter make it more intollerable, its ten times worse then in summer.

Well i'm sure you'd like to be responsible for filtering out model related discussion which didn't fit in to your narrow model remit but luckily...

Anyway enough of this nonsense

[mushymanrob]

42 minutes ago, cobbett said:

Well i'm sure you'd like to be responsible for filtering out model related discussion which didn't fit in to your narrow model remit but luckily...

Anyway enough of this nonsense

my narrow minded remit?.... what would that be then? a liking for all* weather types all year around ( *to a greater or lesser degree) ? or to be informed/discuss of what realistically we are going to get?. id suggest that if anyones got a narrow mind, its those who focus on only 1 weather type.

[mushymanrob]

52 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

It's certainly fast turning into the Downgrade Winter.

Still some of the cold stalwarts bigging up a forthcoming limp-wristed cold rain affair (imby).

I really hope that we see a Warm dry 'early' Spring now. Not much chance i guess considering other global weather patterns but one can live in hope.

im far from convinced itll be cold rain, monday to me looks like snow showers will effect areas prone to north/northeasterlies off the north sea. theres expected to be some very cold uppers and a stiff breeze. id have thought eastern counties might see some white stuff and a covering in places too...

but i dont care if we dont get it.

[snowangel32]

This Winter has three things in common, the FI tease, the express gets wind of a potential snowflake and turns it into Narnia, then the third is the inevitable downgrade as the models start to move into the reliable and the snow charts turn into rain charts.  

Tease, hype, downgrade.  Winter 2015/2016 in a nutshell. 

[cobbett]

37 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

my narrow minded remit?.... what would that be then? a liking for all* weather types all year around ( *to a greater or lesser degree) ? or to be informed/discuss of what realistically we are going to get?. id suggest that if anyones got a narrow mind, its those who focus on only 1 weather type.

as in whats deemed appropriate to be posted - so the poor folks on here dont get wound up, led up garden path and anything which you consider 'childish'

[Essex snowman]

People getting carried away with the word downgrades so stop taking a single run as gospel

if it snows then me like most on here will be over joyed but still got in theory 7 weeks to have some snow if u want to throw the towel that's your choice but stop putting up posts saying winters over and downgrades u sound like a child without a toy 

[mountain shadow]

Models remain poor for snow in my opinion. 

Looks like the briefest of cool Easterlies followed by a return of the Atlantic. 

[snowangel32]

4 minutes ago, Essex snowman said:

People getting carried away with the word downgrades so stop taking a single run as gospel

if it snows then me like most on here will be over joyed but still got in theory 7 weeks to have some snow if u want to throw the towel that's your choice but stop putting up posts saying winters over and downgrades u sound like a child without a toy 

There's no getting away from the fact that it has downgraded, even though strangely enough in the last hour the met have me down for snow all day Sat. But people are just commenting on what they are seeing which they are more than entitled to. Especially this Winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

my narrow minded remit?.... what would that be then? a liking for all* weather types all year around ( *to a greater or lesser degree) ? or to be informed/discuss of what realistically we are going to get?. id suggest that if anyones got a narrow mind, its those who focus on only 1 weather type.

Its ok to have that view but as long as that applies to people who only like dry warm and sunny weather which is 80% of the population.

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its ok to have that view but as long as that applies to people who only like dry warm and sunny weather which is 80% of the population.

yep.....

but 80% of the population arent here chasing phantom cold, and the % in summer who do is very low.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

yep.....

but 80% of the population arent here chasing phantom cold, and the % in summer who do is very low.

No they're just moaning while chatting on buses about how cold our climate is.

[mushymanrob]

46 minutes ago, cobbett said:

as in whats deemed appropriate to be posted - so the poor folks on here dont get wound up, led up garden path and anything which you consider 'childish'

fair play, if im narrow minded because i regard phantom cold chasing as childish - so be it. i do not care!

but as my love of our climate encompasses all weather types, in that respect im broad minded and a damn sight more broad minded then most on here!

[mushymanrob]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No they're just moaning while chatting on buses about how cold our climate is.

but so  what? they arent here clogging up reasoned discussion with nonsense!

(note theres a difference between reasoned discussion at any level, and full blown cold chasing).

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, mushymanrob said:

but so  what? they arent here clogging up reasoned discussion with nonsense!

(note theres a difference between reasoned discussion at any level, and full blown cold chasing).

But this is a weather forum, for people who like weather, I agree there's no point being delusional about a cold spell but there's no problem with debating how or when the next one may come about, I say to you then, lets have a model thread for cold chasing and one for your type of post and how many would be on each??

[mushymanrob]

anyway - this rubbish should be put aside or deleted, .

the noaa charts which predicted this cooler northwesterly flow has been proven accurate yet again, despite some previous op runs suggesting bartletts. the bad news for all is that they are stuck, suggesting no major pattern change in the next 2 weeks. so although we should get a 48 hour cold snap, the overall picture remains largely unsettled , breezy and cool/cold.

[mushymanrob]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

But this is a weather forum, for people who like weather, I agree there's no point being delusional about a cold spell but there's no problem with debating how or when the next one may come about, I say to you then, lets have a model thread for cold chasing and one for your type of post and how many would be on each??

oh i agree it probably wouldnt work, theres an 'in depth' one now and its rarely used.

think we have reached agreement now

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

anyway - this rubbish should be put aside or deleted, .

the noaa charts which predicted this cooler northwesterly flow has been proven accurate yet again, despite some previous op runs suggesting bartletts. the bad news for all is that they are stuck, suggesting no major pattern change in the next 2 weeks. so although we should get a 48 hour cold snap, the overall picture remains largely unsettled , breezy and cool/cold.

So its a cold spell then (a cold spell is surely a spell of below average temperatures), its not bitterly cold but its cold, so how can you say its phantom.

[mushymanrob]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

So its a cold spell then (a cold spell is surely a spell of below average temperatures), its not bitterly cold but its cold, so how can you say its phantom.

im not saying the current spell is a phantom. id regard 'phantom' as ramping up what realistically the charts show and overstating the cold prospects. for some bizarre reason that style of posting is popular, even when time after time the poster/s is proven to be wrong.

nowt wrong with being wrong, we all have been and all will be. but to court popularity by deliberately feeding the less discerning with 'brave' posts that have little chance of verifying is nonsensical and makes some here question the motives. 

can we move on now? reckon paul or pm will be hitting the delete button soon!

[The Enforcer]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

im not saying the current spell is a phantom. id regard 'phantom' as ramping up what realistically the charts show and overstating the cold prospects. for some bizarre reason that style of posting is popular, even when time after time the poster/s is proven to be wrong.

nowt wrong with being wrong, we all have been and all will be. but to court popularity by deliberately feeding the less discerning with 'brave' posts that have little chance of verifying is nonsensical and makes some here question the motives.

Those detailed posts that occasionally emerge about teleconnections always seem to suggest that significant cold is likely in the latter half of winter (periodically shuffling it back as it fails to emerge when originally predicted) so they are the most guilty of unduly raising expectations. In one sense they aren't wrong in that the polar influence on the UK climate has increased as winter has progressed. However, it would be much more realistic if these posts concluded that the chance of anything wintry was very low (less than 10% for example), but if it was going to happen, it would be most likely to do so in such and such period of the winter.

[knocker]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But this is a weather forum, for people who like weather, I agree there's no point being delusional about a cold spell but there's no problem with debating how or when the next one may come about, I say to you then, lets have a model thread for cold chasing and one for your type of post and how many would be on each??

Two points. First we already have a thread for cold chasing that is incorrectly named as 'model discussion' and secondly since when did attempting a semblance of objectivity become 'your type of post''? And I know from experience if you don't follow the party line and attempt the latter you are treated with contempt

I also have a problem with the use of the word 'debating' in this context.

Edited February 10, 2016 by knocker

[weather09]

I think getting rid of the reputation system would change posting styles within the MOD thread drastically, and for the better.  Generally, the monthly praising and gold star distributions has to cease if we're to get any sort of objectivity and reasoning when discussing NWP outputs.  Quite an unpleasant celebrity culture at the moment.  Quite a few who are regarded as knowledgeable, but are in fact not quite that knowledgeable. 

[Nick L]

Alright guys let's end this now please. Any more posts on the matter will be binned.

[mushymanrob]

..... beautiful day today, out of the breeze, in the sun, feels positively warm . chilly though in the shade though.