Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

Phew

Sidney relaxing outside the woodshed

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, jethro said:

Fair enough.

 I still think it's correlation/coincidence, not causation but I'm happy to agree to disagree.

I am however very curious as to what needs to come together late or very late in the season in order for snow to happen here. Especially after mediocre winters. What needs to click into place and why does it happen, especially if it hasn't happened earlier in the season?

hi
but i didnt present my statement as one that was suggesting causation, i cannot scientifically prove a link, but i cannot prove the sun is warmer in summer then in winter either other then its higher in the sky! lol. in my 43 years of working outdoors (like yourself) being 'snowed off' after february has ended is a rare event although we often do see snow. the evidence does suggest a notable snow event after february is more unlikely after a mild/snowless winter - but thats not a 'law' . i do think though that a cold pattern in jan/feb often lingers into march as the synoptic pattern needed is already in place?..

[cobbett]

At last it looks like some 'interesting' weather for the south next week and about time too - never known a more boring winter than this one

[knocker]

Not perfect but an interesting comparison between the analog and the ecm day ten. The 10-15 is not much different so the outlook for the next 14 days remains no significant change. So an eye will have to kept on the day by day outputs for the daily fix

[Carl46Wrexham]

49 minutes ago, cobbett said:

At last it looks like some 'interesting' weather for the south next week and about time too - never known a more boring winter than this one

youre more than welcome to it.....

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, Evening thunder said:

To add to that, 1987-8 in April.

and, it isn't out of 140 years, because I only counted years classed as 'little', there will be many others if I counted them all!

It looks like there are 55 winters classed as 'little' and as 28 of those mention March or April for 'Months with noteable falls, it seems like virtually half of those actually did have notable falls in March.  19 referred to the 'some outstanding features' section. I don't think that page states whether they lasted longer than 48 hours or not so none of us can use it to measure such..

I don't want to seem overly argumentative, but I must be missing something (sorry if I am). Is it not more to do with the fact that it's rare for there to be no notable snowfall before spring? I can only find 4 years in total where no notable snow is listed in the months before March. So actually, 3/4 did provide snow (2 in March, 1 in April)?

So, if I have added up correctly.. That page says there are only 4 years where no 'notable' snow is listed before March (1881-2, 1884-5, 1987-8 and 1991-2) Of those, 3 then gave snow in either March or April (1881-2 the exception).

There are however, 6 other years with nothing notable in the winter months (But something in Oct or Nov),

These are 1895-6, 1898-9, 1904-5, 1910-11, 1974-5, and 1988-9.

Only 1895-6 did not then have snow listed in the spring months. 5/6 did.
Therefore 8/10 winters with no snow in the winter months gave snow in Spring.

This sample size is too low to properly determine this, but ignoring that, I can use the same page to argue the opposite, and say it is common for there to be snow in spring following a winter with very little snow.

But anyway, from my experience of our climate, it is not unusual to have notable falls of snow in Spring in places. So we may have to agree to disagree 

yes i missed 87-8 in april, thats 3.

ok, i see what you are saying about late snow after a relatively mild winter with little snow and there being a notable snowfall in spring - thats a fair point however id suggest that ratio is similar to winters where there has been greater snow events. 

hmm... i do take you point on this though, but as you say theres no idea of how long these late snow events lasted, and i was always referring to a 'decent spell ' of 72 hours or more, as in a winters spell. im possibly guilty of lazy posting and not clarifying fully what im on about.  thats why i referred to 2013 earlier - that was a decent wintry spell after an unremarkable winter. it was a widespread spell that lasted, which im sure we will all agree is a rare event!

 

[Spikey M]

Beginning to think they should rename the model thread the '10 days time club'. 

[Froze were the Days]

The current synoptics look nothing like a 'typical' February when supposedly the Atlantic slowly runs out of steam and parts of the UK should experience one of the driest months of the year. It's just a procession of depressions one after the other, it's just ridiculous. Even though there are current signs of the jetstream somewhat further south it amounts to nothing as troughing is occurring to the north of these systems and no cold air in place to tap into, couple this with now the ever present azore high which goes no where and it equates to winter running out fast.

Diabolical winter - what do we need this month to be CET wise to beat the record warmth of winter?

Edited February 4, 2016 by Froze were the Days

[Gord]

I really don't want to give up on this winter yet because we are still only in the first week of February. But with the outlook so grim yet again this morning it really is hard keeping my interest going.

I'm almost done with this winter now but will just keep an eye in here...just in case.

I fear the enthusiasm and interest entering winter 2016/17 could be very muted on here when November comes around.

Looking further in 2016, if I am going to write off this winter..and I am very very close to doing so, I really hope for some decent weather during Spring and Summer. The Atlantic had better give up at some point.

It's been a terrible 3 winters for cold and snow lovers like myself. There will be a snowy winter again. 2009 surprised us all after a run of bad winters...1991 did as well on the back of 3 bad ones. 2017 might not be the one but good times will return eventually.

For now though, I'll keep a little eye on what the rest of this winter might bring but on the whole, I think it might be in vain.

 

Edited February 4, 2016 by Gord

[Carl46Wrexham]

1 hour ago, Spikey M said:

Beginning to think they should rename the model thread the '10 days time club'. 

Are you throwing in the damn towel? If so...welcome to the club.

[Spikey M]

1 hour ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Are you throwing in the damn towel? If so...welcome to the club.

The towel is down and I am being sponged down in the corner. I await a Scandi high the moment we enter May.

[knocker]

Whoops -15C in Glasgow

[Fozfoster]

Its 9 days  away knocker. lol there safe. 

[78/79]

Got to be honest I've just about done with this useless  apology for  winter, I m fully aware that we have  maritime climate ,and that it is further modified by the gulf stream, but even  taking all that into account, this has been particularly dire.

We have struggled to even get a few half decent frosts let alone snow.  I don't even particularly crave snow , just a couple of cold ,sunny settled weeks would do me, but even that's  just about impossible to achieve. We really do constantly get the sh...t end of the stick summer and winter. Whatever reasons people  are clamoring to migrate here ,it can't be for the  weather. 

[Carl46Wrexham]

53 minutes ago, knocker said:

Whoops -15C in Glasgow

Whoops..9 days away = won't happen.

[Carl46Wrexham]

This rotten excuse for a winter wouldn't know how to be a winter, even if it was given a 100 page instruction book titled "how to be winter..for dummies"...not even if it painted itself purple and danced naked on a harpsichord singing "wintertime is here again"

Rubbish..kick it til it dies.

[jethro]

Came across this yesterday when looking up info for the snow on 4th April 2000. The Bonacina site lists winter 1999/00 as having little snow with only 8 inches in the Brecon Beacons and 5 inches on Salisbury Plain registered on 18th December. I'm beginning to question the veracity of those records as an awful lot more snow than that fell, all in the period which would be classified as late winter - spring. Is this another incident of quite a lot of snow after a largely snowless winter? Hard to say, I'll let you decide, but it was certainly snowy at a time when most would have given up on seeing any snow at all.

http://www.drrichardwild.co.uk/pdf/ukNews/UK%20Heavy%20Snowfall%20News%202000.pdf

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Whoops -15C in Glasgow

That has to be the most bizarre colour scale I've ever seen on a temperature chart. All over the place!

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, jethro said:

Came across this yesterday when looking up info for the snow on 4th April 2000. The Bonacina site lists winter 1999/00 as having little snow with only 8 inches in the Brecon Beacons and 5 inches on Salisbury Plain registered on 18th December. I'm beginning to question the veracity of those records as an awful lot more snow than that fell, all in the period which would be classified as late winter - spring. Is this another incident of quite a lot of snow after a largely snowless winter? Hard to say, I'll let you decide, but it was certainly snowy at a time when most would have given up on seeing any snow at all.

http://www.drrichardwild.co.uk/pdf/ukNews/UK%20Heavy%20Snowfall%20News%202000.pdf

oddly enough, i was working on tuesday 4/4/00 , mowing at a school (checking work records)... maybe your snow event was localised?

Edited February 4, 2016 by mushymanrob
missed a bit

[cornish snow]

43 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

oddly enough, i was working on tuesday 4/4/00 , mowing at a school (checking work records)... maybe your snow event was localised?

Lol,that's some good book keeping.Or your accountant's an a-se

 

Edited February 4, 2016 by cornish snow

[wishingforsnow]

I suppose the only comfort is that sooner or later the Atlantic will tire out and it is getting closer to that point, I think with Spring progressing we are bound to see longer spells of drier weather as opposed to Winter. For what its worth I would rather be experiencing a locked in pattern of Atlantic lows and wet weather from November to March rather than in April - September like in 2007/2012. 

[knocker]

Torpedo incoming Sergei

[lukemc]

What odds do we have of this winter being the mildest winter on record at the moment?

I also need to make a point that since I have been on this forum in the winter sometimes I feel indoctrinated by the coldie club in the winter it is like I am brainwashed to like cold and snow in the winter and nothing else - I am sure that other people on this forum have a similar experience.  If I take a break from the forums, I am not as bothered to whether it is cold or snows.  Yes reading the MOD thread can be exciting at times, but it can also be depressing like it is at present - does anyone actually find the process of reading the model thread depressing? - e.g. look at the moment very little posts I could say boring too.  But on a better note I would like to have a reasonable shot at snow soon - what are the chances of us getting improvents in the charts in the near future as it is depressing going into the MOD thread day after day and reading things like "poor output for coldies again".   I notice a pattern in the model thread sometimes, there are some posters that only seem to post when poor output for coldies appears but there are some excellent posters in the thread too, my favorites are the like of Nick Sussex, Bluearmy, Tamara etc. - who at least when the output does not go in the cold lovers favour, they do a great job of explaining why.

Luke

[Bradowl]

Still no sign of any real wintry weather, just the same of what we've had most of winter, row after row of fronts coming in from west with temps either just above average or just below which only brings any white stuff to hills in north.

 

With most of Europe also under mostly wet and mild conditions I can't see any really cold weather coming this way from east, my guess is we might see something more wintry next month coming from North but as we all know sun is much higher in sky which soon clears any snow that's settled. 

 

Oh well not long to the warmth of spring and sitting in garden with a cold beer in hand. 

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, jethro said:

Came across this yesterday when looking up info for the snow on 4th April 2000. The Bonacina site lists winter 1999/00 as having little snow with only 8 inches in the Brecon Beacons and 5 inches on Salisbury Plain registered on 18th December. I'm beginning to question the veracity of those records as an awful lot more snow than that fell, all in the period which would be classified as late winter - spring. Is this another incident of quite a lot of snow after a largely snowless winter? Hard to say, I'll let you decide, but it was certainly snowy at a time when most would have given up on seeing any snow at all.

http://www.drrichardwild.co.uk/pdf/ukNews/UK%20Heavy%20Snowfall%20News%202000.pdf