Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

can we now please put this march snow malarkey behind us now...

i made a statement, ive supplied the stats that support what i actually said - and they clearly do.  there really is nothing to say, you either accept the stats or you dont.

I am sorry Rob you did not provide evidance that backed up your cliam.... you posted stats that shows snowfall in winter months vs your cliam of mild winters.

 

I even reproduced your original statement.

[mushymanrob]

Just now, frosty ground said:

I am sorry Rob you did not provide evidance that backed up your cliam.... you posted stats that shows snowfall in winter months vs your cliam of mild winters.

 

I even reproduced your original statement.

i provided the evidence that 'notable' snowfall is highly unlikely after march 1st when there has been no notable snowfall in the preceding months - 'mild' by default, im not going to argue what constitutes 'mild' its clear that i was refering to a snowless winter as 'mild' , and not the cet.

[jethro]

14 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

can we now please put this march snow malarkey behind us now...

i made a statement, ive supplied the stats that support what i actually said - and they clearly do.  there really is nothing to say, you either accept the stats or you dont.

But you simply cannot prove your point with stats.

Late season snow is rare. No one's arguing with that, it's a fact. But....what isn't a fact is that it's rarer if there has been little, or no cold and snow preceding late falls. Show me the scientific evidence for causation and I'll accept it, until then it's correlation and there's a HUGE difference between the two.

https://searchenginewatch.com/sew/opinion/2291402/correlation-causation-coincidence-in-seo

 

I'm not a desperate snow lover refusing to give up hope, like you I earn my living working outside, late season snow is a pain. As for point scoring.....really? Is there any need to start getting snippy just because others disagree with you?

Edited February 3, 2016 by jethro

[Methuselah]

But, deep snow in April is rare - it happened in 1981, after a mediocre winter...but, so what?

[Weather-history]

25 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

there are only 2 winters, 1884-5, 1991-2, where that chart says there were 'notable' snowfalls after march 1st when there was no notable snowfall in the preceding months.  ive always been on about 'notable' or 'decent' snowfalls that lasted longer then 48 hours.

That's bizarre, look at 1884-85 and in that list it is down as "average". That can't be right? I'll have a look at Bonacina's original list to see what he actually put.

[jethro]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But, deep snow in April is rare - it happened in 1981, after a mediocre winter...but, so what?

And in 2000 on the 4th, it was a bleeding nightmare, I was moving house up on the Mendips with removal vans getting stuck in a foot of drifting snow.

[cobbett]

22 minutes ago, AWD said:

Lets hope you're right as the last couple of winter's (this one included) have been nothing like that.

Nothing like that ? Ok well reverse the above forecast and that's more accurate is it ? Laughable 

[frosty ground]

10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

i provided the evidence that 'notable' snowfall is highly unlikely after march 1st when there has been no notable snowfall in the preceding months - 'mild' by default, im not going to argue what constitutes 'mild' its clear that i was refering to a snowless winter as 'mild' , and not the cet.

I quoted your own words back to you moving the goal post has been noted 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That's bizarre, look at 1884-85 and in that list it is down as "average". That can't be right? I'll have a look at Bonacina's original list to see what he actually put.

also think 2010-2011 should be very snowy, and 2012-2013 just average? I would say very snowy

[Weather-history]

17 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That's bizarre, look at 1884-85 and in that list it is down as "average". That can't be right? I'll have a look at Bonacina's original list to see what he actually put.

Bonacina has got it down as average.

1884-85  March <------naming of the month is the snowiest month or biggest falls of that season

A little snow in the early winter and heavy falls around March 21st, chiefly in England. In Scotland and Ireland any depth of snow was chiefly confined to the hills.

I have questioned Bonacina's analysis in the past. It's not easy, some areas even in snowy winters do less well, as members from the parts of the NW Midlands will tell us ala 2009-10

Edited February 3, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[mushymanrob]

35 minutes ago, jethro said:

But you simply cannot prove your point with stats.

Late season snow is rare. No one's arguing with that, it's a fact. But....what isn't a fact is that it's rarer if there has been little, or no cold and snow preceding late falls. Show me the scientific evidence for causation and I'll accept it, until then it's correlation and there's a HUGE difference between the two.

https://searchenginewatch.com/sew/opinion/2291402/correlation-causation-coincidence-in-seo

 

I'm not a desperate snow lover refusing to give up hope, like you I earn my living working outside, late season snow is a pain. As for point scoring.....really? Is there any need to start getting snippy just because others disagree with you?

hi... i did provide the evidence that clearly demonstrates that late snow is rarer, much rarer, after a winter with no preceding snow. , i cannot show you the causation , i have no clue how it works. all i can demonstrate is what the stats are telling us. i assume a cold pattern through winter often lingers into spring making a late snowfall more likely - and conversely a mild winters pattern often lingers into spring making a late snowfall less likely.

thats not unreasonable is it?

i wasnt actually thinking about you regarding 'desperate snow lover' or 'point scoring' . i dont get 'snippy' with people disagreeing with me, i get frustrated when people seem deliberately obtuse, and/or either by accident or design misrepresent the point being made - especially in the face of evidence asked for, provided, then ignored.

now you either accept that or not,

Edited February 3, 2016 by mushymanrob

[AWD]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

Nothing like that ? Ok well reverse the above forecast and that's more accurate is it ? Laughable 

This winter has been significantly above average, possibly record breaking above average temps with significantly well above average rainfall for large parts of the UK with no occasional cold spell for a good portion of England & Wales to date.

Last winter was again well above average temps with significantly above average rainfall for large areas of the UK with little in the way of cold.

There have been many "above average" winter's but the last two winter's are in a different league, nothing like them IMO.

[jethro]

44 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

hi... i did provide the evidence that clearly demonstrates that late snow is rarer, much rarer, after a winter with no preceding snow. , i cannot show you the causation , i have no clue how it works. all i can demonstrate is what the stats are telling us. i assume a cold pattern through winter often lingers into spring making a late snowfall more likely - and conversely a mild winters pattern often lingers into spring making a late snowfall less likely.

thats not unreasonable is it?

i wasnt actually thinking about you regarding 'desperate snow lover' or 'point scoring' . i dont get 'snippy' with people disagreeing with me, i get frustrated when people seem deliberately obtuse, and/or either by accident or design misrepresent the point being made - especially in the face of evidence asked for, provided, then ignored.

now you either accept that or not,

Fair enough.

 I still think it's correlation/coincidence, not causation but I'm happy to agree to disagree.

I am however very curious as to what needs to come together late or very late in the season in order for snow to happen here. Especially after mediocre winters. What needs to click into place and why does it happen, especially if it hasn't happened earlier in the season?

[cobbett]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

This winter has been significantly above average, possibly record breaking above average temps with significantly well above average rainfall for large parts of the UK with no occasional cold spell for a good portion of England & Wales to date.

Last winter was again well above average temps with significantly above average rainfall for large areas of the UK with little in the way of cold.

There have been many "above average" winter's but the last two winter's are in a different league, nothing like them IMO.

the point is that you will never get a winter forecast that mentions 'well above' or 'record breaking' - it's just not possible to predict that.  The only flaw in my forecast was replace slightly above to well above but generally it would be correct.

Anyway we have had a few occasional coldish spells but suppose that depends on your definition of cold

[Evening thunder]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

there are only 2 winters, 1884-5, 1991-2, where that chart says there were 'notable' snowfalls after march 1st when there was no notable snowfall in the preceding months.  ive always been on about 'notable' or 'decent' snowfalls that lasted longer then 48 hours.

even at 19 'months' , out of 140 years (280 months if your counting months 140 years x 2 months- march april) it still makes the notion that 'notable snowfall in march/april is UNLIKELY , a very fair statement.

To add to that, 1987-8 in April.

and, it isn't out of 140 years, because I only counted years classed as 'little', there will be many others if I counted them all!

It looks like there are 55 winters classed as 'little' and as 28 of those mention March or April for 'Months with noteable falls, it seems like virtually half of those actually did have notable falls in March.  19 referred to the 'some outstanding features' section. I don't think that page states whether they lasted longer than 48 hours or not so none of us can use it to measure such..

I don't want to seem overly argumentative, but I must be missing something (sorry if I am). Is it not more to do with the fact that it's rare for there to be no notable snowfall before spring? I can only find 4 years in total where no notable snow is listed in the months before March. So actually, 3/4 did provide snow (2 in March, 1 in April)?

So, if I have added up correctly.. That page says there are only 4 years where no 'notable' snow is listed before March (1881-2, 1884-5, 1987-8 and 1991-2) Of those, 3 then gave snow in either March or April (1881-2 the exception).

There are however, 6 other years with nothing notable in the winter months (But something in Oct or Nov),

These are 1895-6, 1898-9, 1904-5, 1910-11, 1974-5, and 1988-9.

Only 1895-6 did not then have snow listed in the spring months. 5/6 did.
Therefore 8/10 winters with no snow in the winter months gave snow in Spring.

This sample size is too low to properly determine this, but ignoring that, I can use the same page to argue the opposite, and say it is common for there to be snow in spring following a winter with very little snow.

But anyway, from my experience of our climate, it is not unusual to have notable falls of snow in Spring in places. So we may have to agree to disagree 

[knocker]

Seems about right

[cobbett]

Agree with Ian f on the mod thread but as he says it's all about about a probalistic forecast which tbh is not exactly difficult for the UK.and so technically the Metoffice can claim success but until we have a below average winter and its forecast correctly then it's all rather pointless 

[knocker]

The jet swinging around the mid Atlantic HP acting as a good channel to swing depressions SE over the UK.

[Buzzard]

'Swing depressions over the U.K.'  The weather does this for us anyway! More wind on the way. Christ I'm sick of this crap. 

 

[Lake District Blizzards]

1 minute ago, Buzzard said:

 Christ I'm sick of this crap. 

 

Up here we were saying this in late November.....

[Buzzard]

Can well imagine, must be an absolute non stop nightmare. I'm just whining because I'm a runner and been battling it for months now!

[snowray]

On 2 February 2016 at 5:18 PM, JOPRO said:

 

 

 

So depressing the weather thats coming up, no sign of a let up to the Wind and Rain! Even the cold air that was due is slowly but surely being downgraded.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Throw the damn towel.

Stick a fork in this wretched season.

[knocker]

The GFS run this morning is the usual mixture of wet and windy periods interspersed with drier interludes. Although there will be interjections of Pm air accompanied by quite wintry weather milder Tm air tends to dominate and overall temps will be slightly above average  Hopefully precipitation amounts wont be too high. Just a couple of charts to illustrate the active jet

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Ian Pennell's Spring forecast, what a depressing start to the day, this guy accurate too, mind you we all virtually know a cold Spring is on the way, I reckon with little to no snow in the south