Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[cornish snow]

17 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

..... but i didnt read gibbys post as 'one sided', far from it, he said that all weather types should be discussed and not just the hunt for cold.

Agreed,trouble is,not many people want to talk about wind,makes for a quick conversation.

 

Personally,high winds dont float my boat,sink it more like. Just a pain in the bum if you ask me.

[JOPRO]

Good News, Looks like an early spring is due for the US could this help us get some cold weather in to the uk? However not certain how accurate this model is.......???

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3427649/Pennsylvania-groundhog-set-predict-winter-ends.html

 

 

 

Edited February 2, 2016 by JOPRO

[David Morse]

5 minutes ago, JOPRO said:

Good News, Looks like an early spring is due for the US could this help us get some cold weather in to the uk? However not certain how accurate this model is.......???

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3427649/Pennsylvania-groundhog-set-predict-winter-ends.html

 

 

 

LOL I was asking the same thing and apparently Punxsutawney Phil is worse than flipping a coin, he has only a 47% accuracy on predicting an early spring, which is slightly better than his 36% accuracy on a long winter.  I'm sure we are headed into a cold end of Feb and a cold March.

[David Morse]

WWN POLL: Should We Also Start Naming Heatwaves, To Get More Of Them?

http://waterfordwhispersnews.com/2016/01/31/poll-should-we-also-start-naming-heatwaves-to-get-more-of-them/

[lassie23]

Is it safe to say' winter is over' yet? Winter is over, there said it anyway Nothing to see here move along.

Edited February 2, 2016 by lassie23

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, Ripeberry said:

At least this winter has not been as boring as 2005. Weeks and weeks of cold, sunny weather and no storms or flakes of snow. It has certainly kept us 'entertained' one way or another. 

I'm sure those in the north of England found having their houses flooded and bridges washed-away most 'entertaining'...

Edited February 2, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[I remember Atlantic 252]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm sure those in the north of England found having their houses floodd and bridges washed-away most 'entertaining'...

yes, odd post that, give me weeks of dry/sun anyday

[Spah1]

 

Makes me sick.

[mushymanrob]

1 hour ago, frosty ground said:

Any actual evidence to back this up

yes.

there was a link to the data posted here a week or so ago, i should have saved it but didnt. the evidence is the stats, which shows that a late cold/snowy spell in march/april is a rare occurance after a mild dec-feb. it can occur as 2013 proved (but even then the ecm had a cold spell in fi as early as early feb) .

 

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

yes.

there was a link to the data posted here a week or so ago, i should have saved it but didnt. the evidence is the stats, which shows that a late cold/snowy spell in march/april is a rare occurance after a mild dec-feb. it can occur as 2013 proved (but even then the ecm had a cold spell in fi as early as early feb) .

 

1975, 1989, mid April 1998, mid April 1999, early April 2000? Are we talking about potent cold spells? 

Late April 1950, March 1937, 1930, 1925, 1916, 1883

They will occur if the circumstances at the time permit it, they are not dictated by what has happened. 

 

[markyo]

9 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

so tell me... wheres anything cold coming from?... it very rarely just pops up unseen, undetected, as if by magic. we see signs of change, of an evolution in the predictive charts. and the current charts are nowhere near starting a cold evolution.

its true that something cold might evolve yet, but we can see with some confidence 2 weeks ahead, and theres nothing there to indicate a synoptic shift that would even make a cold spell (a proper cold spell) possible.  the odds are firmly stacked against a proper cold spell, although just 2 years ago the very short odds won, dont expect that again!

maybe the recent events in the usa is down to better reporting now?

the thing that i cant get away from is the fact that historically our climate has always fluctuated, long before we started to keep records and tried to standardise the climate.  is the climate changing? probably, is this change outside what theres been before? ... dunno... dont think anyone does.

have they?... have you any stats for that or is it a guess?

Some very good points there,food for thought. I've been on the road with my job for over 30yrs now,60kplus a year mileage so see a whole lot of various weather across the country. The last 15 to 20 years has seen a marked difference in what i have seen have come across,the trend seems to be more and more what we are stuck with but as you very rightly said nobody really knows. I'm afraid our little planet likes to keep her cards very much to her chest when the weather is involved!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z at T+240 shows a brief Arctic shot with snow showers across exposed parts of the north and east before an atlantic ridge starts to pushin with widespread frosts...much better than the 12z ending yesterday!

Frosty's Day Ten Special!

[Bristawl Si]

30 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

1975, 1989, mid April 1998, mid April 1999, early April 2000? Are we talking about potent cold spells? 

Late April 1950, March 1937, 1930, 1925, 1916, 1883

They will occur if the circumstances at the time permit it, they are not dictated by what has happened. 

 

So that's 10 in 100 or 1 in 10.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Frosty's Day Ten Special!

Better than nothing, better than wind and rain anyway, coldies are having all the enthusiasm drained out of them by this abysmal winter so I'm just trying to lift the gloom wherever possible.

[knocker]

If tonight's ecm is anywhere near correct next week looks particularly wild and windy.

[knocker]

A brief window in the GEFS anomalies tonight that has all the ingredients for a brief spell of very inclement weather. With ridging just to west and the trough to the east stretching way down south it's a ideal opportunity, with all the energy shooting out of Canada, for a system to dive in from the NW to SE bringing a brief arctic plunge before the pattern flattens out once more. That's the theory anyway

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, JOPRO said:

Good News, Looks like an early spring is due for the US could this help us get some cold weather in to the uk?

No. 

The NE of the US has had both very mild and very cold conditions this Winter and our Winter has stayed exactly the same.

 

[Weather-history]

43 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

So that's 10 in 100 or 1 in 10.

Hey? We are not taking about all winters. 2008, 1995, that photo I posted from 1935...

[alexisj9]

I don't mind what the weather does, although I wouldn't mind seeing some snow if it decides to come along, just hope it doesn't get to stormy down here.

[bobbydog]

2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

12z delivers nothing of note again...on to the next day for another crumb to cling on to. Wet and windy very much the order of the day.

if you get your neighbour's garden shed through your back window, you might note that....

[Weather Observer]

When I signed in tonight I thought I might post something about the models that was either original, or clever or even humorous and  if not any of those, at least off topic.  After thinking long and hard I am afraid to say that I have failed on all counts. 

[Carlrg]

"at least off topic"  No you have certainly achieved that with flying colours. 

[lukemc]

12 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

This may have always been the case and I accept that it is impossible and always has been so that the UK cannot have a 1947 / 1963 more or less every year, but most past winters have brought more in the way of cold outbreaks than this winter so far has and winter 2013-14 did, and many winters between 1988 and 2008 did.  It is just that today and in most of the last 28 years zonal flows have been much milder due to unfavourable orientation; if a zonal flow orientates NW-SE the weather can be very dfferent without significant northern blocking, as www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif zonal, but guess what, widespread snow from the south Pennines northwards, www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif  www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif No significant northern blocking but guess what, widespread snowfall even down to the Midlands even at lower levels.  Looking at the charts closely may not suggest it, but this was a famous event when a zonal flow brought much colder weather and widespread snowfall.  The best example of a zonal flow of polar maritime origin I can find in more recent years was www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090120.gif when a zonal flow brought snowfall to the south Pennines.  This was also a good example www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif .  It is just so depressing when all a zonal flow often delivers is wind and rain and mild temperatures.  It is a bit like late Feb 2005 when some wonderful easterly synoptics developed but gave a poor delivery for most of us. 

The winters of 2008-09 and 2009-10, December 2010 and the middle to latter part of 2012-13 were certainly a significant improvement on most of the 1988 to 2008 period, but since 2012-13 we appear to have slipped back into even the poorer winters of the 1988 to 2008 period, and looking at this winter (2015-16) so far and the dreadful one in 2013-14, and also 2014-15 wasn't special neither, the question is again being asked "is northern high latitude blocking extinct, is cold polar maritime zonality extinct? 

NEB,

That sounds a bit like the ludicrous Modern Wintr theory branded about by the likes of Ian Brown - how an earth can you say northern blocking is extinct - we have in the last decade the coldest December for over 100 years meaning the coldest in any of our lifetimes.  In 2009-10 we had the coldest winter since 1978/79 and we recently had an amazingly cold March with very deep snowfalls.  And even though the last two winters were mild and average respectively before this one in North America they had a pair of severe winters.  Not having a go at you but just saying that you can't suddenly go back to that position regarding the future of our winters based on 2 mild winters and one near average one since 2013.  Also you have got to consider that this winter has had some unusual factors that have come together to make a mild winter - e.g. the easterly QBO a record strong El Nino and a very cold stratosphere throughout most of the season - if we did not have them we would have had a better chance of northern blocking.  Trust me NEB, we are high likely to see a few more very cold winters in our lifetimes, even with global warming.

On another topic, do you think we could see something of note in the middle on the month - I am going to stay in a Travelodge in the Peak District around the time of Valentines Day - what do you think the chance of seeing something wintry then would be? As the Peak District is higher up than Liverpool? I would like it to snow when I go!

 

Luke

[Weather Observer]

Thankyou Carlrg. I have hit the bottom and the only way is up

[Milhouse]

Patiently awaiting the first southerly waft of warm air to appear in FI.