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Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Not here "just for snow"...haven't seen it falling since Boxing Day 2014 - not that big a masochist. The moaning is this winter delivering way too much foul rotten weather (wet and windy autumnal rubbish)

Just want Spring now. Not interested in Jam Tomorrow charts now..

Nor could those of us who've had no proper winter yet care much anymore about how much snow a Northern hill is getting...most of us don't live on a Northern hill.. 

Well the northern hills around me have seen about one transient snow 'event' in the whole of Dec and Jan Carl so believe me its a crock of crud even for northen hills.

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Possible major snow event for Ireland and the north. :shok:

ecm_mslp_eur_6.thumb.png.519e6279aa2c871

Think the bigger story there would be the storm force winds for South Wales/South West England and all points East 

Edited by Carl46Wrexham
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
22 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Think the bigger story there would be the storm force winds for South Wales/South West England and all points East 

Could well be although the ecm isn't looking at anything outlandish with the main gusts in the St Georges Channel in the 60kt range. All a little academic at this stage as all of this is very dependent on the precise analysis.

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
11 hours ago, sundog said:

Bit of a coincidence though that it looks like this winter will be the warmest on record etc,december was crazy mild. Surely winters of the past were not in say a 30yr period as mild overall as the last 30,i refuse to belive it.

I said forget global warming, the fact is the UK was and is never guaranteed a cold winter year on year. We have to accept this. 

"At my waking, I found the tops of the houses covered with snow, which is a rare sight, that I have not seen these three years."

Samuel Pepys from late November 1662.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
29 minutes ago, knocker said:

Could well be although the ecm isn't looking at anything outlandish with the main gusts in the St Georges Channel in the 60kt range. All a little academic at this stage as all of this is very dependent on the precise analysis.

Derek Brockway (BBC Wales weatherman) has said snow is a possibility in more Northern areas of Wales, but all this is too far out yet. A lot of time for things to change. Still think the wind would be the bigger talking point however.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
1 minute ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Derek Brockway (BBC Wales weatherman) has said snow is a possibility in more Northern areas of Wales, but all this is too far out yet. A lot of time for things to change. Still think the wind would be the bigger talking point however.

had many experiences of this type of event, it's an elevation thing only, pure rain under 150m asl, the air is just not cold,

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
39 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I said forget global warming, the fact is the UK was and is never guaranteed a cold winter year on year. We have to accept this. 

"At my waking, I found the tops of the houses covered with snow, which is a rare sight, that I have not seen these three years."

Samuel Pepys from late November 1662.

 

This may have always been the case and I accept that it is impossible and always has been so that the UK cannot have a 1947 / 1963 more or less every year, but most past winters have brought more in the way of cold outbreaks than this winter so far has and winter 2013-14 did, and many winters between 1988 and 2008 did.  It is just that today and in most of the last 28 years zonal flows have been much milder due to unfavourable orientation; if a zonal flow orientates NW-SE the weather can be very dfferent without significant northern blocking, as www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840115.gif zonal, but guess what, widespread snow from the south Pennines northwards, www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840123.gif  www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1984/Rrea00119840124.gif No significant northern blocking but guess what, widespread snowfall even down to the Midlands even at lower levels.  Looking at the charts closely may not suggest it, but this was a famous event when a zonal flow brought much colder weather and widespread snowfall.  The best example of a zonal flow of polar maritime origin I can find in more recent years was www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/2009/Rrea00120090120.gif when a zonal flow brought snowfall to the south Pennines.  This was also a good example www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1995/Rrea00119950302.gif .  It is just so depressing when all a zonal flow often delivers is wind and rain and mild temperatures.  It is a bit like late Feb 2005 when some wonderful easterly synoptics developed but gave a poor delivery for most of us. 

The winters of 2008-09 and 2009-10, December 2010 and the middle to latter part of 2012-13 were certainly a significant improvement on most of the 1988 to 2008 period, but since 2012-13 we appear to have slipped back into even the poorer winters of the 1988 to 2008 period, and looking at this winter (2015-16) so far and the dreadful one in 2013-14, and also 2014-15 wasn't special neither, the question is again being asked "is northern high latitude blocking extinct, is cold polar maritime zonality extinct? 

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

cold polar maritime not extinct! comes too frequently, useless for low levels in the south unless uppers are below -10, I would like less of it, but northern members above 300m asl, it's probably the snowiest setup

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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

had many experiences of this type of event, it's an elevation thing only, pure rain under 150m asl, the air is just not cold,

Hence the reason I'm not doing cartwheels. Had enough stormy days this season already, and snow at elevation doesn't do it for me.....

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
30 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I said forget global warming, the fact is the UK was and is never guaranteed a cold winter year on year. We have to accept this. 

"At my waking, I found the tops of the houses covered with snow, which is a rare sight, that I have not seen these three years."

Samuel Pepys from late November 1662.

 

Yes that is true indeed and i would not expect snowy winters most years. Such is our climate that our winters  have and will always be regarded as 'mild'.

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
14 hours ago, cornish snow said:

To many people giving up on winter today.

It's the 1st of Feb for ----'s sake,not March18th

 

so tell me... wheres anything cold coming from?... it very rarely just pops up unseen, undetected, as if by magic. we see signs of change, of an evolution in the predictive charts. and the current charts are nowhere near starting a cold evolution.

its true that something cold might evolve yet, but we can see with some confidence 2 weeks ahead, and theres nothing there to indicate a synoptic shift that would even make a cold spell (a proper cold spell) possible.  the odds are firmly stacked against a proper cold spell, although just 2 years ago the very short odds won, dont expect that again!

14 hours ago, markyo said:

Sorry disagree,i was around in the early 70's.(loved nationwide!) Agree that we had a run of mild weather,but surely somebody of your obvious understanding of the weather can't fail to see the bigger picture. The resent usa weather over the last few years point in case coupled with the massive increase and frequency of extreme weather events must surely point to a shift in our climatic situation. This is not a fluctuation by any means. Sorry to disagree but until people realise this then i feel we have a problem.

maybe the recent events in the usa is down to better reporting now?

the thing that i cant get away from is the fact that historically our climate has always fluctuated, long before we started to keep records and tried to standardise the climate.  is the climate changing? probably, is this change outside what theres been before? ... dunno... dont think anyone does.

14 hours ago, sundog said:

yes but since the late 80s most of our winters have been mild and since then each decade has got more snowless then the one before.

have they?... have you any stats for that or is it a guess?

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
48 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

the question is again being asked "is northern high latitude blocking extinct, is cold polar maritime zonality extinct? 

A present problem is the fact that it all happens at the wrong time of year. We get the northern blocking in summer and polar maritime spells in summer, then summer synoptics in winter. Just one poor aspect of our wretched climate.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

The big problem with this mild Winter is the southern blocking of the azores high over Europe maintaining the mild temps in the UK.

I think it needs a powerful storm system maybe a bit more powerful than Henry that would force the jet south taking the annoying blocking high with it I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

so tell me... wheres anything cold coming from?... it very rarely just pops up unseen, undetected, as if by magic. we see signs of change, of an evolution in the predictive charts. and the current charts are nowhere near starting a cold evolution.

its true that something cold might evolve yet, but we can see with some confidence 2 weeks ahead, and theres nothing there to indicate a synoptic shift that would even make a cold spell (a proper cold spell) possible.  the odds are firmly stacked against a proper cold spell, although just 2 years ago the very short odds won, dont expect that again!

 

Quite agree with that assessment. The anomaly charts have all been locked to the evolution for the next fourteen days, here the latest 5-10 ecm and the 10-15 shows no significant change,

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.9c558a0

Further afield the latest METO guidance indicates no route to cold and neither does the latest EC32 update which of course is no big surprise. So although a month  is a long time in meteorology and situations can and do change quite quickly the percentage play is no significant cold for the foreseeable future.

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
4 minutes ago, pip22 said:

I think it needs a powerful storm system maybe a bit more powerful than Henry that would force the jet south taking the annoying blocking high with it I think.

Conditions aloft dictate the conditions at the surface, not the other way around.  Low pressure doesn't move the jet around, the edges of troughs/ridges in the upper levels dictate where the jet lies. 

I think the misconception comes from a lot of talk in the MOD thread about 'shortwaves' at times being the main determining factor in ruining upper patterns favourable for cold weather.  

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Posted
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
  • Location: Newton in Bowland
11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Quite agree with that assessment. The anomaly charts have all been locked to the evolution for the next fourteen days, here the latest 5-10 ecm and the 10-15 shows no significant change,

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.thumb.png.9c558a0

Further afield the latest METO guidance indicates no route to cold and neither does the latest EC32 update which of course is no big surprise. So although a month  is a long time in meteorology and situations can and do change quite quickly the percentage play is no significant cold for the foreseeable future.

I can't disagree with that assessment, yes it turn colder perhaps from mid month for a short while but as things stand there will be no significant cold spell this winter, now March and April may well be another matter.

Edited by Hocus Pocus
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Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
11 hours ago, Nick L said:

The Facebook "on this day" feature is a good one for my weather memories. My status on the 31st Jan 2014 was bemoaning the endless rain, and how we only had 1 dry day all month. Just reminded me that it could be far, far worse.

Even so, this has been a crap winter, and there looks like very little change for the next 10 days at least.

I had had a few of those especially back in December..

Though tbh I think this winter may be worse for me, less frosts than 2013/14 (which seemed to manage more between systems here than many other places), less sun, and little weather of interest.

51 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

looking at this winter (2015-16) so far and the dreadful one in 2013-14, and also 2014-15 wasn't special neither, the question is again being asked "is northern high latitude blocking extinct, is cold polar maritime zonality extinct? 

 

Well, this kind of backs up my post on page 158... I don't think the patterns of our winters are completely random, but if they were, a cluster of 3 mild winters would not be unusual as datasets cluster by their nature.. If you ask people to make up a 'random' sequence such as the results of flipping a coin they often produce something closer to an alternating pattern, but random data is not at all affected by the previous data point, it doesn't think 'oh, about time for a cold one with northern blocking'.

Also, of course most past winters have had more cold outbreaks than 2013/14 and 2015/16..  and picking the charts from perhaps the most famous 'cold zonality' month of recent times will lead to more recent events looking bad in comparison, even ignoring the upward trend in global temperatures.

Winters have often been mild, and the prevailing wind in winter is SW.. Indeed charts for the average January pressure pattern looks depressingly close to my least favourite set up.. i.e Euro High and Icelandic Low. Though thankfully there is normally more variability around that theme than this winter..
 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
23 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

its not impossible...winter 77/78 was exceptionally cold and snowy across N.America the worst of the 20th Century and far worse than their recent winters..we also had some decent snow events in January and February 1978

Many of our great cold spells have occured in tandem with a +PNA (what typically delivers for the eastern US). It's probably more true to say that a +PNA simply reduces the middle ground and we either get the cold spell or go zonal. 

23 hours ago, MP-R said:

May always tends to be a tricky one I feel - only 2004 and 2008 stick out to me as being settled for at least half the month. More often than not it's a pretty unsettled month with summer only properly kicking in in June. I'm hoping that if we get landed with easterlies and northeasterlies in May, they are of a returning warm variety. 2008 featured both a warm easterly and a cool northeasterly which just brought cloudy conditions and cold nights, then a very wet final week for the south as lows pushed up against the northerly-situated high. No thanks!

May 08 was brilliant and the first half explained exactly what synoptics we need to beat the existing record holder.  Your right though, we've had relatively settled May's but we rarely see a high parked over/east to deliver the warmth with it.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

A raging jetstream, a mainly organised PV and HP over S Europe.

And, in the main, all of this looks the form 'horse' for 1st couple of weeks of Feb.

That HP over S Europe has hardly shifted since November. Funny to think that one of the main, and knowledgeable, contributors on here answered one of my posts in November where i asked if the HP would be there for long. The answer was that it'll be gone in a week. Hmmm....

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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

China has had one of its coldest winters twice in the last few years, the USA we can see is going into the freezer regularly, even with a rampant el nino (next week or so could be brutally cold across the mid west and eastern seaboard).

By coincidence China and the USA remain the two biggest polluters in the world, other similar areas such as the EU, less so. Or not a coincidence? Even if not I can't be happy about them getting what I consider to be a benefit - i find it tough to go into spring without having had the 'cleansing effect' of freezing weather, so much so that I now actually search it out for holidays because I feel so much better during and afterwards. .

Edited by ukpaul
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Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl

Over in the thread of eternal misplaced optimism (otherwise known as the model thread) seems that the gripers such as myself and others are almost being accused of wanting "snow or nothing"

Frankly I find this incredibly annoying!  Is it such a bad thing to want an end to the rain/wind cycle which has gone on and on for a period of time which now stretches into months? Actually there are many of us who would love nothing more than a sustained period of dry and sunny weather..there are also more than a good few members who just want Spring now (myself included) who have had a belly full of depression after depression coming at us delivering more wind and more rain. Too much of the same thing is incredibly tiresome....and that goes for posting Jam Tomorrow charts for 2 weeks in the future as well!

Rant over.

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
10 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Over in the thread of eternal misplaced optimism (otherwise known as the model thread) seems that the gripers such as myself and others are almost being accused of wanting "snow or nothing"

Frankly I find this incredibly annoying!  Is it such a bad thing to want an end to the rain/wind cycle which has gone on and on for a period of time which now stretches into months? Actually there are many of us who would love nothing more than a sustained period of dry and sunny weather..there are also more than a good few members who just want Spring now (myself included) who have had a belly full of depression after depression coming at us delivering more wind and more rain. Too much of the same thing is incredibly tiresome....and that goes for posting Jam Tomorrow charts for 2 weeks in the future as well!

Rant over.

I share your frustration and have just replied to said member's rather sweeping post.

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants

Yes agree with that Carl - the point being is that it's because snow is so rare (well it is here in the south) the hunt will be always be more geared towards those conditions. I think a lot of people just shrug there shoulders now at yet another gale which seem to occur on weekly basis these days zz

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