Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[snowray]

Some are talking about some sort of toppled at 15 days now, well I officially surrender, even the ECM T240 chart is a total pi** take!

 

[Woollymummy]

9 hours ago, David Morse said:

Nacreous clouds seen over Dublin this morning :-) 

http://lovindublin.com/pics/these-stunning-rare-clouds-have-been-appearing-across-ireland-this-morning

 

 

I saw some this evening coming home from Oxford at rush hour but with no phone to stop take a pic, two little ones and a big one towards the north, just wondered if anyone else saw them or did a time lapse film facing north from Oxford area by any chance? They were not as multi-coloured as I have seen nacreous clouds before, but same quality of glowing shiny light.

Edited February 1, 2016 by Woollymummy

[Walsall Wood Snow]

On 30/01/2016 at 9:08 PM, iand61 said:

33 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Yeah, it could just be 3 mild winters (last year was actually not far from average temperature wise), and a colder one in 2016/17

People seem too quick to think our climate has changed.. before 08/09/10 etc it was the 'm0dern winter' etc and some saying would we see a CET month below 3C.. then people were asking if our winters were becoming colder and snowier due to solar activity or some other change, and now it's changed back to some saying mild and wet is the 'winter of the future'.

Of course there may have been some sort of shift in synoptics due to a surprisingly controversial scientific consensus.

If it was a random dataset, mild and cold winters would tend to cluster at times, because random is very different to an alternating pattern.

I agree. There is nothing unusual about this being the third mild Winter in a row (up to this point of course). People are acting like this is unprecedented but it's happened many times in the past and as Mushymanrob has said there was an uninterrupted run of 6 mild Winters in the 70s. Also there were many mild Winters (or indeed mostly) in the first half of the 20th century up until the 40s. Yes there were exceptions like Winter 1916/17 but they were few and far between. I think we just have to accept that our default Winter is a mild one and we're bound to get them more often than cold ones. This just isn't (with the exception perhaps of the Scottish highlands) a snowy part of the world. The most recent normal Winter for the UK was probably Winter 2014/15. Not Winter 2009/10 or this Winter. In fact most recent Winters in the last decade have been on the extreme end of both sides of the spectrum including this one (with the very mild December anyway). I'm pretty convinced that the lack of cold and snow in this Winter and the previous two (but really only in the south last Winter) is nothing more a cluster in natural variability and at some point (maybe next Winter or maybe not) will come to an end. Just remember we've had 4 cold and snowy Winters in the last decade which is pretty good going for this part of the world.

[law of averages]

When we have PALM TREES, growing in our little island… then that tells you we live on the MILD SIDE!! but we do get some good, very good, xcellent… even EPIC WINTERS!! like wws mentioned the other day… and myself said the other day, you need to look to past… to see what will, what does happen in future!! History shows there are many winters that were mild… and many that were cold!! I mentioned earlier there was many mild winters in 30 plus years, dotted with snowy/cold winters… there have been, there are and no doubt future will be mild but I think we have entered a cold period since 2007 and future winters will be cold/snow, very cold/snowy, extremely cold/snowy… only time will tell but as for ' GLOBAL WARMING '… no, not convinced… didn't hitler ask his xperts about the chances of a mild russian winters and they said yes, lol… it never happened!! Also a few yrs ago, a relative of mine who lives in good ole U. S of A… said the yanks were doin tests in alaska, as he said messing around with weather?? So who knows… if its true, it wouldn't surprise me in least… alot to answer for then yanks

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

I personally can't even see the potential at day 10, more like clutching at the last straw.

Wheres the cold going to come from?

It's exactly what I said last night just look at all the cold air spilling into the mid west of the u.s. Someone better tell Mother Nature what sharing means. I mean come on its farcical, even if the Synoptics fell right for us we get -2 -3 uppers at best. 

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

It's exactly what I said last night just look at all the cold air spilling into the mid west of the u.s. Someone better tell Mother Nature what sharing means. I mean come on its farcical, even if the Synoptics fell right for us we get -2 -3 uppers at best. 

Same every year the yanks get it all and we get nowt.hopeless

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Same every year the yanks get it all and we get nowt.hopeless

Maybe because north America is the 3rd largest continent on the planet and the UK by comparison is tiny  and surrounded by relatively mild sea.

[Weather-history]

Forget global warming, the fact is the UK was never guaranteed a cold winter year on year even during the Little Ice Age. Read Pepys who in the 1660s talks about seeing lying snow in London for the first time in 3 years, a Times editorial from 1891 mentioning that severe winters are less common than mild ones, a Times editorial from 1937 saying that southern Britain is not the best place to learn the greatness of snow. People talking about the good old days of winters past, then you go back to those periods and they are talking about the good old winters of the past and before even that. Even in 1853 some were talking about that the seasons have changed.  All this long before the global warming theory.

Last winter for instance was actually colder than 3 winters of the 1960s for the CET, winter 2009-10 was colder than every winter of the 60s barring 1962-63, and so was November 2010 to January 2011.

 

Edited February 1, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[Norrona2015]

I saw these Nacreous clouds shortly after a snow shower this afternoon.I found this a bit odd as the thermometer was reading 6*C during the snow.

[Jason M]

19 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Same every year the yanks get it all and we get nowt.hopeless

In fairness the latest observation in Boston on the BBC website shows Boston at 18c, so it's not exactly cold in much of the US. Moscow is projected as having max temps largely above freezing over the coming days as well. Every time I see a temp anomaly chart of the northern hemisphere it looks like someone's spilt a pot of red paint over it. 

If places like Boston and Moscow can't manage anything cold, we ain't got no chance. The irony of the recent blizzard in the US was that the amount of snow was probably partly because the air was warmer than it should be at this time of year and therefore holds more moisture. 

I think the warming trend is really kicking in now. Record global warm temps, record EL Nino, earliest Atlantic Hurricanes, the list just goes on and on. Even in the UK, December didn't just beat the previous record, it ciompletely obliterated it. I bet it's not a record that will last very long though.

not saying we won't see snow in the future, but it's going to get progressively harder. 

 

 

[knocker]

JH has already covered this evening's NOAA so just the ecm anomaly which in the 5-10 range shows little change with colder air encroaching a fair way south but really just an indication of continued wintry interludes.

In the ext range upstream the Alaskan ridge and the Canadian vortex and trough down the eastern North America continue to dominate, if anything more so, with more energy flowing east and lower pressure to the NW there may be a tendency for the flow to back a tad westerly. Temps probably just below average.

 

[sundog]

29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

BBForget global warming, the fact is the UK was never guaranteed a cold winter year on year even during the Little Ice Age. Read Pepys who in the 1660s talks about seeing lying snow in London for the first time in 3 years, a Times editorial from 1891 mentioning that severe winters are less common than mild ones, a Times editorial from 1937 saying that southern Britain is not the best place to learn the greatness of snow. People talking about the good old days of winters past, then you go back to those periods and they are talking about the good old winters of the past and before even that. Even in 1853 some were talking about that the seasons have changed.  All this long before the global warming theory.

Last winter for instance was actually colder than 3 winters of the 1960s for the CET, winter 2009-10 was colder than every winter of the 60s barring 1962-63, and so was November 2010 to January 2011.

 

Bit of a coincidence though that it looks like this winter will be the warmest on record etc,december was crazy mild. Surely winters of the past were not in say a 30yr period as mild overall as the last 30,i refuse to belive it.

[law of averages]

54 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:

 

Who likes MILD… in winter  

[ReindeerMarmalade]

3 minutes ago, sundog said:

Bit of a coincidence though that it looks like this winter will be the warmest on record etc,december was crazy mild. Surely winters of the past were not in say a 30yr period as mild overall as the last 30,i refuse to belive it.

Quite. I posted this the other day but worth putting in here too:

Europe's recent summers were the 'warmest in 2,000 years' - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-35431375

[law of averages]

1 minute ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Me! It feels so soft and beautiful, and the good thing is I don't have to put up with the mental anguish of everywhere looking like a disgusting white wasteland.

Lol... Whatever floats ya boat but you wouldn't get much in failsworth 

[law of averages]

5 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

lol… a bit of sleet 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Still too much of it unfortuantely... I've had to put up with one day too much of it already this winter.

err I see you're back! whiners posts all the time

[Stormyking]

4 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Still too much of it unfortuantely... I've had to put up with one day too much of it already this winter.

Just when you think it will be over, the white wasteland will return in spring

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

we get the message you don't like snow, move on! thought you'd left, nearly celebrated 

[Weather-history]

11 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Me! It feels so soft and beautiful, and the good thing is I don't have to put up with the mental anguish of everywhere looking like a disgusting white wasteland.

Yet you make a time-lapses of it....... to remind you of it......

 

Edited February 1, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[Methuselah]

Well, I love snow - but I like 14C almost as much. So long as it's not a grey, windy 7C!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, Thunderbolt_ said:

I thought I'd come back and let you know again. Sorry!

agree with your last post though, think we all agree a cold miserable Spring is on the way, and I want a warm settled Spring

[Stormyking]

Just now, Thunderbolt_ said:

That's the unfortuante thing. Many of these fantastically mild winters have been fllowed by miserable cold springs. At least if anything, I can pleasure myself in knowing that I have had the privilege of experiencing this wonderful winter.

One bonus of it in spring, is the potential convective snow showers and bigger chance of thunder with it too

Each to their own eh, this winter has been quite remarkable with some of the high temperatures, though I would of happily taken your 1 day of the white stuff

[Weather-history]

Just now, Thunderbolt_ said:

I do indeed, and your point is?

To punish yourself? A weather sadomasochist? You said it causes you mental anguish, why the hell would you go and remind yourself of it then? 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well, I love snow - but I like 14C almost as much. So long as it's not a grey, windy 7C!

agree there, but as long as it's not a wet windy 4C