Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[snowray]

All is not lost chaps, more potential on the GFS 18z, great chart 10 days out!

[snowray]

[Day 10]

53 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Currently 14c in the Midlands....

This guy just saw the latest chirpy optimistic post in the Model thread with words like "potential" littering it...

 

And then when the "potential" day 10 charts do arrive everything will be "marginal" lol

[Carl46Wrexham]

11 minutes ago, snowray said:

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

All is not lost chaps, more potential on the GFS 18z, great chart 10 days out!

 

Edited January 31, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[snowray]

5 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

And then when the "potential" day 10 charts do arrive everything will be "marginal" lol

Of course, in fact things usually become increasingly marginal from about 5 days out!

Then at 3 days out its virtually all gone the way of the pear!

Edited January 31, 2016 by snowray

[Carl46Wrexham]

Just our luck that in such a crap winter, February has 29 days........

Edited January 31, 2016 by Carl46Wrexham

[Day 10]

Well at least we can have a laugh about it otherwise we'd all go mad. I've loved all the highs an lows so far this winter. I love the forum full stop. Great learning experience, funny at times and good to browse when not upto much. At the end of the day it's only weather, all we need now is real life snow!

[Woollymummy]

48 minutes ago, Southender said:

Serious question this. Anyone think that the seasons are now out of kilter and need re-adjustment?

Jan/Feb/Mar = Winter

Apr/May/June = Spring

July/Aug/Sept = Summer

Oct/Nov/Dec = Autumn

Thoughts?

Jan/Feb Winter

Mar/Apr Spring

May/June/July Summer

Aug/ Autumn

Sept/ a bit more summer

Oct/Nov some more Autumn

oops, forgot, Dec = Christmassy Autumn/Spring

Edited January 31, 2016 by Woollymummy

[Carl46Wrexham]

14 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Well at least we can have a laugh about it otherwise we'd all go mad. I've loved all the highs an lows so far this winter. I love the forum full stop. Great learning experience, funny at times and good to browse when not upto much. At the end of the day it's only weather, all we need now is real life snow!

Seasons like this a let off steam thread is essential...else we would go nuts for sure.

[Catacol]

I have to admit that this winter is becoming very tough to take. The constant atlantic assault and mild temperatures are seemingly relentless at present despite the forcings that suggested the second half of winter would be different to the first..... 

There is still time for a change but I'm starting to get the feeling that it just isnt going to happen for the south this winter. It's easy to forget of course that PM air has given the north a decent covering of snow through parts of january, but a NW feed is no good for the south on most occasions. A potent El Nino is not our friend.

eQBO and a more neutral, perhaps slight Nina. ENSO may prove much more helpful next winter. Solar cycle will be more favourable too.

[Woollymummy]

I just had an adventure day in the woods and fields with a load of young kids and leaders, all picnicking in hot sun at 12:30pm followed by a warm breeze with the hint of a threat of rain but no actual rain-drops. Felt more comfortable being outside than many August Bank Holidays. Not one single kid seemed cold except the moany ones who were getting shoulder-carries from their gullible dads....all running around to stay cosy, stream not too freezing to jump around in and get soaked, bonfire at the end was fun but def not essential to keep happy. So as much as I love snow, want snow, promise I will enjoy snow etc, I have actually enjoyed myself so much having a massively fun day out in the balmy January air, not having to worry too much if my children were under-dressed and enjoying seeing them playing as if it was spring already. So, roll on snow, but the main message is get out and enjoy the weather whatever it is.

[Stationary Front]

January to December = Autumn

[Gord]

The new UK seasons are as follows:

January=Autumn

February= Autumn

March= Spring

April= Summer

May= Roadworks

June= Autumn

July= Autumn

August= Kids everywhere

September= Spring

October =Autumn

November= Grey

December= Pictures of fake winters everywhere

 

 

OR, we could just forget about using months and do this:

2000-2006 = Summer

2006-2009= Autumn

2009-2013= Winter

2013- ? = Autumn

Edited February 1, 2016 by Gord

[Woollymummy]

round here: road works = all summer holiday, most of the month before christmas shopping is urgent, and the last two weeks of financial year, when they have to blow any remaining cash on tar and aggregate to make sure they get their departmental allowance next time round

and summer mainly seems to be a weekday thing, weekends are autumn; or day before essay crisis/work deadline is likely to be old-fashioned Ladybird-book style summer, first day off after 10 days: floods

Edited February 1, 2016 by Woollymummy

[knocker]

I wont touch on Henry as people should be keeping a close watch on the advisories today. It certainly looks like being a very rough few hours in the north of Scotland.

Moving on to later in the week a front traverses the UK on Friday bringing more wet weather before the next system pops in on Saturday although I suspect the METO is treating this a little differently at the moment.

Is it also possible that towards the end of the run the GFS is showing signs of what the METO has been indicating recently with HP towards the SW/S/SE becoming more influential?

Anyway if you think the weather has been lousy lately cast your mind back to this day 63 years ago when over 2,000 people lost their lives during the North Sea flood.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/1953-east-coast-flood

Edited February 1, 2016 by knocker

[Weather-history]

[Steve Edgefield]

What a dreadful winter.  I wish it would end.  No sign of anything cold and white looks likely now.  Even when the Synoptics do look more favourable there is no deep cold to tap into.  From my untrained eye, whatever is going on in the stratosphere is doing nothing for us except shift that vortex over to the States side (again) delivering massive cold to them in the medium term.  No deep cold showing anywhere near north or east Europe or even Russia for that matter.  I've definitely reached model fatigue.  I thought some of those winters in the late 90s were bad but this has been the worst and punishing and traumatic for those that have had to suffer floods.  Roll on Spring and a stronger sun to start drying things out.  

Edited February 1, 2016 by Steve Edgefield

[Day 10]

Interesting chart, but guess what day it's at??? TEN!!!

[northwestsnow]

Dreadful 0z runs really.

Looking like the first half of Feb will be similar to Dec and Jan, just cold rain instead of warm rain.

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

Doesn't feel like February out there this morning...

But then December never felt like December (on any given day)..January? Pfft meh.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

the modern Feb though it feels like, 'winter' months feel like autumn really now, miss the 90's winters

[coldcomfort]

So here we go.....last month of winter, charts that continue not to inspire, torpedo off and running, but to god knows where. First mention of Spring in the MOD gets met with a post from Fergie that says don't be too sure, the rain just keeps coming, winds howling, everything budding, grass a foot long, birds mating. Winter 15/16 so far has been an utter abomination, in fact we really haven't had any proper seasonality here for years - it feels like it has been varying shades of autumn since Dec 2010. 

Edited February 1, 2016 by coldcomfort

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

So here we go.....last month of winter, charts that continue not to inspire, torpedo off and running, but to god knows where. First mention of Spring in the MOD gets met with a post from Fergie that says don't be too sure, the rain just keeps coming, winds howling, everything budding, grass a foot long, birds mating. Winter 15/16 so far has been an utter abomination, in fact we really haven't had any proper seasonality here for years - it feels like it has been varying shades of autumn since Dec 2010. 

Fergie mantions anticyclonic cold in late Feb- if it was Dec/Jan fair enough but anticyclonic cold in late Feb pretty much useless in my book, thats not a slight at fergie but for me,late feb high any cold will be negated by stronger sun longer days etc.

Right up there with 87/88 88/89 89/90 this sorry excuse of a winter.I really hope something changes with our weather patterns coldcomfort, north west of england has had enough rain over the last 3 years to last a lifetime

[MP-R]

On 1/26/2016 at 10:25 AM, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

February 2008 anyone lol? Tbh, given the winter so far, and the fact that blossoms are coming out and some hedgerows already budding green, any cold snap now will have a detrimental effect. So some warm sunshine would be quite welcome.

N.b. this isn't in response to IRA252, N-W is just messing about again with its quote boxes.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

good chart miguel, would love that right now