Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[The PIT]

Plenty of moaning to come for next week me thinks. Hopefully we'll get some storms if those double digit temps turn up.

[Derbyshire_snow]

8 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Crazy, really. Wasn't it something like 23C around Christmas in Washington DC?

I'm going to move to Buffalo  that way i will never have to curse the lack of snow ever again.

 

[stainesbloke]

3 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Crazy, really. Wasn't it something like 23C around Christmas in Washington DC?

Yes. I was in Philadelphia on Christmas Eve and it was 23C (rainy too). Felt very odd!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

opposite hopes for me Pit! hope we see some dry weather and even sunshine to make double digit temps feel great, unlikely of course, wet/stormy is the favourite

Edited January 21, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[JoeShmoe]

Purely IMBY post but seen 2 decent snowfalls the last few weeks, taken the kids sledging and built snowmen so beginning to look forward to the warmth of the sun and spring - as I get older I look forward more and more to sunny and warm weather than I used to 

[JOPRO]

Love it, just as a few mild charts start knocking around people hit the panic button and say we are heading back to December!! Do people not realise how extreme and rare that event was same as November 2010 was for cold.  Think we could see some interest for cold start showing up in the charts over the weekend.

[knocker]

NOAA tonight is in no rush to introduce Pm air into the UK but the ecm is much more progressive with the vortex spread much further west. Tending towards a north/split over the UK The ext EPS moves it further west and retains the zonal flow and the north/south split.

Edited January 21, 2016 by knocker

[Methuselah]

Och well - if it's not going to be -200C with a full-on blizzard, I guess that 15C is the next best thing!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well - if it's not going to be -200C with a full-on blizzard, I guess that 15C is the next best thing!

too right ed, yes even better 16C!

[Liam J]

Gales and renewed flooding risk likely next week, the penalty for milder weather at this time of year... As if we haven't had enough rainfall already this winter! Still very wet underfoot even after the drier weather over the last week. 

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

too right ed, yes even better 16C!

I agree...And with all that 'residual energy' being sucked out of the US - who knows what the future holds?

[Liam J]

24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Och well - if it's not going to be -200C with a full-on blizzard, I guess that 15C is the next best thing!

February's going to be epic, Pete... I think -200c and blizzards will be the main headline, we'll all be desperate for a bit of warmth into spring!   

[Liam J]

Wondered where Kirsty McCabe had gone, she's now the senior meteorologist on the Weather Channel. She's done a short video on potential SSW which could herald some cold weather before winters over. 

Not sure why you can only see half a screen but the full video is on the Weather Channel Facebook page. 

 

 

Edited January 21, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Peter H]

3 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Wondered where Kirsty McCabe had gone, she's now the senior meteorologist on the Weather Channel. She's done a short video on potential SSW which could herald some cold weather before winters over. 

Simon Keeling running with the same scenario on his Weatherweb video today, possibly a similar set up to 2009/10 ??????

The BBC were hinting at the cold weather from the east possibly breaking through again next week over the last day or so, and the models did hint at a Scandinavian high at the end of the runs yesterday, but that's all gone now.

Mild weather well into Europe for the next week or so at least it would seem, unless Simon Keeling's predictions come true.

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

Edited January 22, 2016 by Peter H

[knocker]

The perceived wisdom at the moment is that a segment of the trop. PV will traverse east and perhaps introduce cooler Pm air into the UK. Well the first part of that is correct according to this morning's GEFS anomalies but the Pm doesn't transpire and the flow remains in the westerly quadrant with some quite warm air advecting into the UK over the next few days, Once this scenario has run it's course the Euro HP again exerts it's influence. Ergo the GFS run this morning is notable for it's above average temps. Alas the red crayon is not yet redundant but the second coming of the 'torpedo' is awaited with bated breath and one trusts the GPS guidance system is up to scratch. Doesn't bear thinking about otherwise.

[knocker]

The ecm this morning can be summed up with wet, windy and warm as systems traverse the UK on the strong westerly flow.

[cornish snow]

15 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm this morning can be summed up with wet, windy and warm as systems traverse the UK on the strong westerly flow.

Does look that way. Can only hope we're close enough to high pressure, to the south,to keep the worst of the wet stuff away.

How anyone can actually look foreward to weather like this is beyond me.

Obviously dont have to go out in it.

It's just depressing stuff,end of.

[Essex snowman]

No crumbs of comfort winter is over already roll on Spring 

[coldcomfort]

Still some positivity re a change to cold come Feb in the MOD and it must be said plenty of it floating around on social media, but having just looked through the full overnight suite I'm still struggling just as much as ever to see why.

[mushymanrob]

15 hours ago, jethro said:

For all those of you despairing of this winter, especially those who think it's too late now, winter's almost over, take a look at this site. Scroll through and see just how many cold, snowy Februarys there have been, often huge amounts of snow.

http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html

well thats wrong to start with.... it says 79-80 "1st Feb., 4in. 17th Mar., 6in" ... where?... certainly not here in derby!

but that chart does support the idea that cold snowy februaries usually follow cold snowy spells earlier in the winter with only 5 winters out of 140 recorded snow (somewhere but not everywhere) recorded snow in feb or march after a generally mild winter. taking these stats into account it is unlikely that we will get a cold snowy spell (as in widespread and 3 + days).

[mushymanrob]

12 hours ago, knocker said:

NOAA tonight is in no rush to introduce Pm air into the UK but the ecm is much more progressive with the vortex spread much further west. Tending towards a north/split over the UK The ext EPS moves it further west and retains the zonal flow and the north/south split.

what stikes me about the noaa's, is the way theyve killed off any chance of a scandi high, one large enough to threaten us with cold, anyway. looks pretty average to me, unsettled, mobile, westerly, cooler in the north, average/milder in the south.

[knocker]

1 minute ago, mushymanrob said:

what stikes me about the noaa's, is the way theyve killed off any chance of a scandi high, one large enough to threaten us with cold, anyway. looks pretty average to me, unsettled, mobile, westerly, cooler in the north, average/milder in the south.

Yes the Scandi high is off the table. It seems to me that the only way to any seriously cold weather is courtesy of the Strat. If everything up there goes to plan, and it's a big if, a cold northerly plunge over Europe could materialise but even then it could well end up too far east. Time to get the Worry Beads out.

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly not dissimilar to the GEFS, perhaps bringing the Pm air a tad further south. The ext period not significantly different, just moves the vortex to northern Norway but retains the zonality.

[stewfox]

Any sign of cold is well out in FI

I know Feb can deliver ie Feb 86 and my snow ball fight on my 21st

In fact it has often snowed on 9th feb we will see

Anyway lets book a flight to washington DC

[Evening thunder]

 

16 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

we had a chilly week mid feb 78, no snow, no ice days.

Mid Feb 78 had one of the most famous blizzards in the SW:
 

 

Edited January 22, 2016 by Evening thunder