Scotland Weather Discussion - 20th November 2015 and Onwards...

[Hairy Celt]

Yeah cold, calm, almost clear this morning. No rain either!  I hear the hills to the NW are looking white again...

However a look at any of the models says make the most of today as there seems to be a limpet low stuck out to the NW for the next few days to keep a generally mild and damp and at times windy flow heading this way.  Possibilities of something cooler - but not proper cold - sometime next week as the low finally dissipates eastwards, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it.

[moffatross]

25 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Ski resorts struggling too, so not even got that as consolation.

I think the heavy snow showers that got driven in on high wind Monday and yesterday were about ideal for the West. They'd have been the first proper gully filling snowfalls of the season and might set up the front of Glencoe, and the back corries at Nevis with a base that'll last a good while. The SAIS blogs may make interesting reading later ... http://www.sais.gov.uk/

Just a dusting of snow in Moffat this morning, or to be fair, more like an accretion of frozen slush. The hills are white though.

[moffatross]

10 minutes ago, Hairy Celt said:

However a look at any of the models says make the most of today as there seems to be a limpet low stuck out to the NW for the next few days to keep a generally mild and damp and at times windy flow heading this way.  Possibilities of something cooler - but not proper cold - sometime next week as the low finally dissipates eastwards, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it.

Mild and windy, yep, but thankfully, the probability of being the bullseye for a weekend storm seems somewhat reduced today ...

 

And locally, wet obviously too. Notably, the only remaining Met Office warning is centred on Moffat 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1454630400&regionName=dg

Edited February 3, 2016 by moffatross

[Guest]

It's cool in the breeze but a cracking day nonetheless:

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by CatchMyDrift

[moffatross]

Nice captures, CMD. The cloud has arrived in Moffat now but with a bit of rare sunshine, and some snow in the garden I went after the snowdrops this morning too 

[mistyqueen]

Went out with a friend doggy walking, returned to the most beautiful sound of tap, tap, tap. That would be roof tiles being hammered into place! Wonderful! A lovely calm and cold day here, currently 5.1c. Normal service resumes tomorrow, wet and a wee breeze.

[Hairy Celt]

I see a theme but I have no Snowdrops...

[November13]

Snow chances or prolonged cold spell are now diminishing. I can't see much in the charts which indicates some real winter. More mush on Thursd/Frid and ski resorts don't need another thaw. Cooler at the weekend but not cold. We could get late Feb snow but ski resorts take a while to get going without a base. Kind of glad I went to Glenshee when it was good as no guarantees now.

[Hairy Celt]

9 minutes ago, November13 said:

Snow chances or prolonged cold spell are now diminishing. I can't see much in the charts which indicates some real winter. More mush on Thursd/Frid and ski resorts don't need another thaw. Cooler at the weekend but not cold. We could get late Feb snow but ski resorts take a while to get going without a base. Kind of glad I went to Glenshee when it was good as no guarantees now.

Not sure if my snowshoes are going to lose their virginity soon either...

I was looking at webcams from southern French alps, these are places usually pretty busy with skiing between 1500m and 2500m at this time of year.  They aren't busy - the cameras still show white pistes but even to my amateur eye, they don't look right, sort of scoured and messy.  And cameras in the villages at 1000m haven't shown fresh snow for over a week.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, November13 said:

Snow chances or prolonged cold spell are now diminishing. I can't see much in the charts which indicates some real winter. More mush on Thursd/Frid and ski resorts don't need another thaw. Cooler at the weekend but not cold. We could get late Feb snow but ski resorts take a while to get going without a base. Kind of glad I went to Glenshee when it was good as no guarantees now.

I know where you're coming from with this, and I kinda agree but also disagree a wee bit too. There aren't any signs of proper cold winter weather in the charts, but I think there will be snow chances coming up now and again in the next few weeks. Even the Met-O are going for slightly colder than average for "the north" over the next ten days or so. 

[edo]

This place sounding like the Mod thread which must mean winter really is over....Oh well at least I have new golf clubs to look fwd to enjoying....I'm sure we will get one more decent fall yet though #hunch

[101_North]

Quick question from folks more knowledgeable than me. Was flicking through Euro4 and spotted some odd precipitation patterns. I was wondering if these were down to something meteorological or just a quirk of the way it's been modeled? It's the dark blue spotted ppn patterns bottom left. Don't remember ever seeing a ppn pattern like it before.

 

[Guest]

29 minutes ago, 101_North said:

Quick question from folks more knowledgeable than me. Was flicking through Euro4 and spotted some odd precipitation patterns. I was wondering if these were down to something meteorological or just a quirk of the way it's been modeled? It's the dark blue spotted ppn patterns bottom left. Don't remember ever seeing a ppn pattern like it before.

 

I am not claiming to be more knowledgeable than you, or anyone else, but previously when I've seen this on the Euro4 it's been summertime and it has signalled thunderstorms. Might have been coincidence but that's my best guess. Either that or it's the Daily Mail's next big plague getting ready to invade. 

[Northernlights]

Its still eleven weeks (full winter feeding)  till we may get cattle out and even then the grass may not grow enough to feed them and we have to supplement them like last year when there were 14 nights of at least a ground frost  in May followed by some in June when there was  a huge powder fall on the ski slopes on the 17th of June so lot of wintry weather still to come . Often put cattle out on the 20th of April in warm sunshine to be followed a few days later by 4 inches of snow. Last year cattle were more contented at grass in October than June because of the cold.

As I have said before the frequency of north and east winds is at its peak and sea temperatures at their lowest so Arctic winds can still pack a punch especially up here at least till the end of March and on occasion till the beginning of May.Have seen this many times over the last 5 decades. Winters not over yet

0.4c  at 6.00am this morning with a ground frost  a nice calm sunny  dryday  followed but clouded over late pm, currently 2.3c

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by Northernlights

[Hairy Celt]

2 hours ago, edo said:

This place sounding like the Mod thread which must mean winter really is over....Oh well at least I have new golf clubs to look fwd to enjoying....I'm sure we will get one more decent fall yet though #hunch

If we wanted to look like the model thread, I could start a massive argument now with lots of random cliches and spelling mistakes...  Nah, thought not.

NL is spot on - winter's barely started I reckon, we'll have frosts in May again.  This year I'll be ready though with big fleeces for the bushes and trees...

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Its still eleven weeks (full winter feeding)  till we may get cattle out and even then the grass may not grow enough to feed them and we have to supplement them like last year when there were 14 nights of at least a ground frost  in May followed by some in June when there was  a huge powder fall on the ski slopes on the 17th of June so lot of wintry weather still to come . Often put cattle out on the 20th of April in warm sunshine to be followed a few days later by 4 inches of snow. Last year cattle were more contented at grass in October than June because of the cold.

As I have said before the frequency of north and east winds is at its peak and sea temperatures at their lowest so Arctic winds can still pack a punch especially up here at least till the end of March and on occasion till the beginning of May.Have seen this many times over trhe last 5 decades. Winters not over yet

0.4c  at 6.00am this morning with a ground frost  a nice calm sunny  dryday  followed but clouded over late pm, currently 2.3c

 

Did you programme the ECM tonight? Not quite a snowy nirvana but not mild either, 850 temps don't look amazing but a reasonable chance of snow for some. 

[edo]

3 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

If we wanted to look like the model thread, I could start a massive argument now with lots of random cliches and spelling mistakes...  Nah, thought not.

NL is spot on - winter's barely started I reckon, we'll have frosts in May again.  This year I'll be ready though with big fleeces for the bushes and trees...

Your always overly positive HC...I bet you still think GPs torpedo is about to hit...it's going to be a procession of mild winds and rain....why is it always the cold charts that never materialise....we are on the same latitude as north America we should get crazy snow....us coldies deserve it but I'm throwing in the towel....I'm taking a break from the models...those computers are winding me up.... 

 

now it's really the model thread 

 

Guys could we please keep posts about the models, I have had to move several posts that are either personal or off topic..there is a dedicated thread for moans and groans...

 

Ahhhhh now it's really the model thread 

 

 

[BurntFishTrousers]

One of the boat operators on the Western Isles mentioned this earlier (I quote) in regard Storm Henry.

Quote

 "the Waverider Buoy which sits around 20 miles west of South Uist, had waves peaking at over 16.5m (55 feet) on Monday evening. And the Saral Altika Satellite system made a measurement of 19.3m (63.5 feet) during one of its passes!"

 

Edited February 3, 2016 by BurntFishTrousers

[Northern Strath]

If we were to start giving up on our cold&snow chances on Feb 2nd then we'd need to bring everything else forward so Happy Easter Kilties! The use of words like 'potential' and 'the weather may' in the Met Office outlook for the month demonstrates how they can't be sure of much long term, plenty reasons to be positive, still a few nice surprises in store in the coming weeks I'm sure

Wee covering on the car from an overnight shower or two and  0.2C when I left

[Ravelin]

Temp 0f -0.2C this morning on leaving the house. A lot of patchy high cloud around but no wind.

No frost in evidence but the hills to the West looked slightly whiter than yesterday. I'm assuming they got some snow whilst we got some rain. When youngest son got out to the car he said "Oh, look at the ice this morning, that's pretty" before grabbing the de-icer and ruining all the nice patterns.

I wish I was in the Alps this week coming, looking rather snowy. Maybe frustratingly snowy if you want to ski though.

[Guest]

This morning's runs aren't frigid winter, but they're not hairdryer SWlies either. A bit of an inbetweeny mishmash messy effort, with some decent shouts for snow at times. 

[101_North]

16 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

I am not claiming to be more knowledgeable than you, or anyone else, but previously when I've seen this on the Euro4 it's been summertime and it has signalled thunderstorms. Might have been coincidence but that's my best guess. Either that or it's the Daily Mail's next big plague getting ready to invade. 

Cheers Catch.That was my initial thought as well. I guess we'll know for sure if storms start appearing in the forecast :-)

[moffatross]

29 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

This morning's runs aren't frigid winter, but they're not hairdryer SWlies either. A bit of an inbetweeny mishmash messy effort, with some decent shouts for snow at times. 

Yep, both the 10 day ECM and 16 day GFS ops are looking distinctly more settled for us with the jet a lot more sedated, and a few hundred miles further south. Ironic that we can only see the Met Office model output to 6 days as their longer term text update appears to have dropped just what the ECM and GFS are showing this morning.

[moffatross]

2 hours ago, Northern Strath said:

If we were to start giving up on our cold&snow chances on Feb 2nd then we'd need to bring everything else forward so Happy Easter Kilties! The use of words like 'potential' and 'the weather may' in the Met Office outlook for the month demonstrates how they can't be sure of much long term, plenty reasons to be positive, still a few nice surprises in store in the coming weeks I'm sure

Wee covering on the car from an overnight shower or two and  0.2C when I left

At our latitude, winter proper continues until late March and we can still get heavy snowfalls into April so to condemn winter at the start of February is pure bonkers.

As you said, some nice surprises may be in store for us. The GFS has just rolled out a run that (even in the absence of deep cold) suggests they may not be that far away either. This is for Moffat from the GFS 06Z ...

 

[blitzen]

Morning.   Looks quite good for you at times next week Moffatross.   My forecast not quite as cold, quite dry, chilly and pleasant after Tuesday.   Certainly not a hairdryer situation as Catch says.   Daytime temps ranging from 2-4c and overnights -1/ -2c.

Suicide watch required in the MOD!

 

 Forecasted to rise to 8c come afternoon with rain.   Starting to cloud over now.

Edited February 4, 2016 by Blitzen