C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)

[Weather-history]

What I find ironic about this is that December has been the least mild of the winter months over the last 25 years.  It's funny that January and February couldn't  break their CET records and yet December which hasn't been within 1.0C of its record over the last 25 years is going to smash it.

Also and I mentioned this before, we haven't recorded a December with a CET of 5.9 and here we are looking like a 9.0+C one!

Edited December 23, 2015 by Weather-history

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.7C will drop to 8.6C tomorrow. Probably finishing place between 8.2C to 8.6C for us in Sheffield.

[reef]

We're on 9.1C at the moment compared to 7.3C which was the mildest December back in 1988.

In regards to the CET, if December finishes on 9.6C, then January and February would have to average 1.8C just to give a winter value equal to the 1981-2010 average!

A mean of 5.4C in January and February would give us the mildest winter ever (6.78C), breaking the record which has stood since 1869.

[AderynCoch]

This December is going to be warmer than the entire year of 2010. Much warmer in fact.

Just think about that for a second.

Actually it's going to be warmer than the average annual CET...

Edited December 23, 2015 by AderynCoch

[Singularity]

I hear ya - I've been watching my annual mean to each day of the month go nowhere much at all when it should be falling steadily.

Even more bizarre is the fact that the current mean of 11.01*C here is the same as it was when October got underway.

Speaking of which, Oct had a mean of 11.32*C here (Nov 10.55*C) and my mean to 23rd Dec is 11.24*C so it really has been autumn in December!

Based on recent model runs the final mean for this month could be close to 11*C so easily beating November's already remarkably high figure (that month was the mildest in my records going back nearly two decades, beating the previous record holder, 2011, by 0.48*C).

 

The previous mildest Dec in my records? 6.50*C in 2006. That's essentially the mildest I've known since I started paying proper attention to the weather so this month is a whole flight of stairs above my past experiences!

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 23rd

5.0c above the 61 to 90 average

5.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today of 6.8C, while maxima looks like being in the high 10s, so a drop to 9.8C is likely on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

9.8C to the 25th (8.7: +4.2)
9.8C to the 26th (9.4: +5.1)
9.8C to the 27th (10.3: +6.4) [Record High: 10.6C]
9.8C to the 28th (9.7: +5.6)
9.7C to the 29th (8.5: +4.6)
9.7C to the 30th (8.7: +4.5)
9.7C to the 31st (9.9: +5.5)

Mild all the way through to the end of the month now according to the GFS. At this stage, something from 9.2C to 9.9C looks likely before corrections, and 8.7C to 9.9C after.

[The PIT]

Still on 8.7C rounded up. We should get some downward shift although days keep on being made milder by the time you get there.

[The PIT]

Down to a cold 8.6C expecting 8.5C tomorrow for Sunny Sheffield.

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 24th

5.0c above the 61 to 90 average

5.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 25th

5.0c above the 61 to 90 average

5.0c above the 81 to 10 average

[Weather-history]

I can't seen this month now being below 9.0 provisionally. It would need the last 6 days to average about 5.1 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 5.8C, while maxima look like being around 14C, so remaining on 9.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

9.8C to the 27th (11.1: +7.2) [Record High: 10.6C]
9.8C to the 28th (10.2: +6.1)
9.8C to the 29th (9.5: +5.6)
9.8C to the 30th (9.6: +5.4)
9.7C to the 31st (7.3: +2.9)
 

Things looking more clear now, with a finish above 9.5C before corrections very likely. At this stage, I'd estimate a finishing range of 9.4 to 9.9C before corrections, and 8.9 to 9.9C after. Probably 75% chance of finishing above the March record of 9.2C after corrections.

[Weather-history]

Here are some values to compare with when the final December CET comes out in the New Year.

Warmest Marches on record for CET

9.2 1957
9.1 1938

It could surpass these values.

Warmest Novembers on record

10.1 1994
9.6 2011
9.5 2015
9.5 1818
9.4 1938
9.3 1743
9.2 1730
9.1 1817

Could be a value where there has only been one warmer November than this.

If it stays at 9.8, there would have been only 27 warmer Aprils in the CET records.

9.1 May 1996. It could be warmer than this. At its current value (9.8 at time of this post) and if it stays at this, it would be warmer than 36 Mays in the CET records.

If it stays at 9.8, it would be warmer than about half the Octobers in the CET records.

 

 

[Milhouse]

It looks like the arrival of cooler/colder weather will occur just after the turn of the month. For a month that has been so mild it is rather fitting that it keeps going right till the end and obliterates the previous December record.

[m1chaels]

Am I right in thinking the more consistently windy a month has been the smaller any correction is likely to be because the air is basically moving all the timer so local effects are mixed out?

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 26th

5.0c above the 61 to 90 average

5.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Backtrack]

7 hours ago, m1chaels said:

Am I right in thinking the more consistently windy a month has been the smaller any correction is likely to be because the air is basically moving all the timer so local effects are mixed out?

Not really. Quite the opposite if you get a foehn effect going on. Moving air just affects how it feels, rather than the reading of the temperature of that air. 

[Roger J Smith]

You can expect the correction to be 0.2 or 0.3 C, but it won't make much difference to scoring. It is possible (an outcome 9.5 or higher) that under the rules we will see these odd results:

-- nobody gets more than 1 accuracy point

-- second place forecast has error of 2.0 which is larger than most top ten errors in 2014-15 contest.

-- Craig wins (but can he play with the lead? oh I just looked in January, asked and answered ...)

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.6C still

[Weather-history]

Over to you Roy

 

[Summer Sun]

9.8c to the 27th

5.0c above the 61 to 90 average

5.1c above the 81 to 10 average

[Weather-history]

33 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Apart from the flooding which has been the main negative of this month, I feel privileged to have experienced such a fantastically mild month!

It could be the mildest month (numerically) until June next year. 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by Weather-history

[J10]

40 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Apart from the flooding which has been the main negative of this month, I feel privileged to have experienced such a fantastically mild month!

I am not saying this was a mild month but Craig Evans was too low.

[Timmytour]

This is the first year since 1933 where there have been 11 months where there has been a variation in the mean CET at least 1C from the corresponding month of the previous year.  There hasn't been a year where this has happened for all 12 months....and it's only the third time after 1782 and 1880 where all 12 months have varied by more than 0.75C 

There have only been seven years since 1900 where the number of months to have varied by over 1C has been 10 or more and three of them have come in the last five years.  But such groupings were not uncommon before 1900