C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)

[reef]

9.8C before adjustments at the end of the month. No words can do it justice of how grim that is for a 'winter' month. The only consolation is its probably one of those months that wont be repeated in a long time.

Those who are fond of mild winter weather should enjoy it though, this is their January 1963/February 1947.

[Don]

6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

December warmer than the April in the same year? Last time that happened was 1986.

 

April 1986 was a cold month whilst April 2015 was warmer than average.  This goes to show just how remarkable this month is turning out to be - December possibly returning a higher CET than a mild April! 

[Nick L]

We might as well just go for the big 10 now.

[reef]

5 minutes ago, Don said:

April 1986 was a cold month whilst April 2015 was warmer than average.  This goes to show just how remarkable this month is turning out to be - December possibly returning a higher CET than a mild April! 

Up until 2007 the record warmest April was 10.6C. To get anywhere near that in December shows how ridiculous this month has been.

[Man With Beard]

Like most of us I imagine, its an embarrasing start to the CET challenge for me, looks like my 6.4C will be more than 3C out!! My only consolation is that, being a true coldie in winter, it was with a very heavy heart that I went so far above the average in the first place - thank goodness I went with my head rather than what I wanted!! It was clear to me, though, even after the first couple of days that 8C was to be a better marker. A remarkable month. Sadly, the grey-ness, the rain and the wind means few of us will have actually enjoyed such a meteorically historic event.

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Lol... the Anti-Christ December.

I can think of worse words 

Easily the warmest December on record for London & SE going below double figures seems like an achievement the dullness also may verge on record breaking a month memorable for its mediocrity. One I hope to never experience again.

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, reef said:

9.8C before adjustments at the end of the month. No words can do it justice of how grim that is for a 'winter' month. The only consolation is its probably one of those months that wont be repeated in a long time.

Those who are fond of mild winter weather should enjoy it though, this is their January 1963/February 1947.

One interesting point of note though is the weather required to get this record tally vs other months. It's amazing to think that record mild in December requires dull and drizzly but in March it's clear skies all day. 

Power of the sun i suppose.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

might as well nick, still uncertainty over Boxing Day (cet zone), dry and 14C or wet and 5C, by god, i'd rather the 14C and dry, anyone who prefers rain and 5C over 14C and dry is mad!

[reef]

25 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

One interesting point of note though is the weather required to get this record tally vs other months. It's amazing to think that record mild in December requires dull and drizzly but in March it's clear skies all day. 

Power of the sun i suppose.

Its more to do with sea surface temperatures. In December, cloud amounts and airmass type determine the surface temperature more than in March. In March a warm airmass moving over a cooler sea can create mist and fog and therefore give cooler surface temperatures (especially near the coast). Sunshine however can have a much more powerful effect on raising daytime temps in March than December.

Its swings and roundabouts, but I've no doubt if these constant S/SW synoptics and windy conditions occurred in March they would also give a good chance of breaching the record.

Edited December 22, 2015 by reef

[Scorcher]

2 minutes ago, reef said:

Its more to do with sea surface temperatures. In December, cloud amounts and airmass type determine the surface temperature more than in March. In March a warm airmass moving over a cooler sea can create mist and fog and therefore give cooler surface temperature. Sunshine however can have a more powerful effect on raising daytime temps in March than December.

Good post- March 2012 was a prime example of the highlighted part- one of the warmest Marches in record, and could have been warmer were it not for mist and fog forming earlier in the month under a warm airmass and HP. I imagine a December with similar synoptics would have been rather cold.

[summer blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Good post- March 2012 was a prime example of the highlighted part- one of the warmest Marches in record, and could have been warmer were it not for mist and fog forming earlier in the month under a warm airmass and HP. I imagine a December with similar synoptics would have been rather cold.

While we did get morning cloud i think Leeds got lucky in March 12 in that this side of the Pennines it was stupidly sunny. Even beat 2003 i believe.

 

Inversions are more prominent in December under HP but it somewhat depends on the orientation and how warm the continent is uppers wise.

Edited December 22, 2015 by summer blizzard

[Timmytour]

6 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Like most of us I imagine, its an embarrasing start to the CET challenge for me, looks like my 6.4C will be more than 3C out!!

embarrasssing?   surely that will still put you in the top 10%!!

I knew, absolutely knew it was going to be a warm one.....but my idea of a "warm" December was 6.2C and I only went 6.3C because I'd seen two others guess 6.2C. But I can't believe that I'm going to be so far out have "sensed" this was be a December in the top 10% of the warmest ever!

I suppose when a December is going to warm now, it's going to be very warm!  There have been eight Decembers greater than 7C  split evenly between before the First World War and after it. But while those before the war were either 7.2C or 7.3C, those after the war soared to 7.5C, 8.1C and now this 9-10C month!!   So even though the Decembers over 7C were in a shorter time-period  - 57 years as opposed to 81 years for the four Decembers after the war - those in the latter period have definitely been more impressively over.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Like most of us I imagine, its an embarrasing start to the CET challenge for me, looks like my 6.4C will be more than 3C out!! My only consolation is that, being a true coldie in winter, it was with a very heavy heart that I went so far above the average in the first place - thank goodness I went with my head rather than what I wanted!! It was clear to me, though, even after the first couple of days that 8C was to be a better marker. A remarkable month. Sadly, the grey-ness, the rain and the wind means few of us will have actually enjoyed such a meteorically historic event.

mine will be 2.7 out probably, for heaven's sake the ultimate even larger teapot believer

[Evening thunder]

The thing with this month, it is looks like it may finish with an positive anomaly of near 5C?  Also, some southern areas may finish with 5-6C anomalies, based on some stations being as high as +6.4C above normal now!

This is the kind of monthly anomaly that, at least for mean temperatures, I thought was virtually impossible in this country (or at least very rare) and reserved for more continental climates since it has not occurred in the CET records before now. But now it looks like happening.

I know that positive anomalies for maxima can occasionally be that high in Spring/Summer (e.g. July 2006, April 2007/2011), along with negative anomalies for mean temps in very cold winter months, just not mean temp anomalies for warm months (until now).

[Summer of 95]

If we want to go for 10C, why not 10.1 which is the November record. December warmer than any March or November, that's unreal.

Foggy March can't be warm? March 1997. One of the foggiest months I can remember, and it was completely devoid of anything cold. Conversely April 2015 sunniest on record, very anticyclonic with no cold airmasses, yet it didn't exceed 18C here all month.

 

[Scorcher]

3 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

While we did get morning cloud i think Leeds got lucky in March 12 in that this side of the Pennines it was stupidly sunny. Even beat 2003 i believe.

 

Inversions are more prominent in December under HP but it somewhat depends on the orientation and how warm the continent is uppers wise.

Well with the lack of breeze in that sort of setup I imagine there would be a lot of issues with lingering fog in December, as we saw at the start of November this year for many areas, despite a very warm airmass and a warm continent. The stronger sun in March gives a better chance of it burning off through the morning.

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

11 hours ago, reef said:

9.8C before adjustments at the end of the month. No words can do it justice of how grim that is for a 'winter' month. The only consolation is its probably one of those months that wont be repeated in a long time.

Those who are fond of mild winter weather should enjoy it though, this is their January 1963/February 1947.

The way average temperatures are rising, I can see December CET regularly in the 6-7 C range the time I am an old man (2060). I take no pleasure in saying that!

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by BlueSkies_do_I_see

[summer blizzard]

I doubt this will be repeated for a long time. In terms of the magnitude of it's victory, it's probably comparable to May where the record in 18xx is something like 1.4C above second place. 

[feb1991blizzard]

Craig Evans will win this  - that's without even looking at what he predicted!!

[Timmytour]

With regard to my previous post, I neglected to say that I was only looking at the last 160 years....apologies.

In fact there have been 14 Decembers over 7C going back to when records began.  and the average "wait" for such a month is 23 years.

So, although this December will smash records, since its been 27 years since we last had one over 7C  we could say we were due a warm one...and boy did we get one!

Edited December 23, 2015 by Timmytour

[Scorcher]

Yes Timmy, I agree, I did say in here at the very start of the month that we were well overdue an exceptionally warm December...strange that at the first dicussion of it, we got one more exceptional than any! 

[Summer Sun]

9.9c to the 22nd

5.1c above the 61 to 90 average

5.1c above the 81 to 10 average

Edited December 23, 2015 by Summer Sun

[BornFromTheVoid]

Minimum today is 6.4C, while the maxima looks like being in the low 10s tomorrow morning, which should knock us back to 9.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

9.8C to the 24th (8.6: +3.9)
9.8C to the 25th (8.9: +4.4)
9.8C to the 26th (9.8: +5.5)
9.8C to the 27th (10.6: +6.7) [Record High: 10.6C]
9.8C to the 28th (9.6: +5.5)
9.8C to the 29th (9.1: +5.2)
9.8C to the 30th (9.7: +5.5)
9.6C to the 31st (4.1: -0.3)

Could we sneak in a single below average day at the end? Whatever happens, a finish above 9.0C before corrections looks pretty certain at this stage, so 9.1C to 10.0C before corrections, and 8.6C to 10.0C after corrections is my guess. 

Edited December 23, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[Scorcher]

27 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Minimum today is 6.4C, while the maxima looks like being in the low 10s tomorrow morning, which should knock us back to 9.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

9.8C to the 24th (8.6: +3.9)
9.8C to the 25th (8.9: +4.4)
9.8C to the 26th (9.8: +5.5)
9.8C to the 27th (10.6: +6.7) [Record High: 10.6C]
9.8C to the 28th (9.6: +5.5)
9.8C to the 29th (9.1: +5.2)
9.8C to the 30th (9.7: +5.5)
9.6C to the 31st (4.1: -0.3)

Could we sneak in a single below average day at the end? Whatever happens, a finish above 9.0C before corrections looks pretty certain at this stage, so 9.1C to 10.0C before corrections, and 8.6C to 10.0C after corrections is my guess. 

Not buying that drop on the 31st personally- the GFS has been consistently colder than the ECM- of course it could happen, but the ECM is showing something rather different for the end of the month. The GFS 06z has that rather ridiculous looking storm developing close to new year and allowing some colder PM air in- not saying it's impossible but I'd say improbable. The Euros look milder and less progressive. 

I just wonder if we might get up to 10C if the ECM 00Z comes off...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Craig Evans will win this  - that's without even looking at what he predicted!!

 

Yes, he has guessed too low though, 9.0 I think he went for