Atlantic Storm #2 Barney

[Nick F]

Have issued a weather Alert for the next few days on the Netweather Alerts system:

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=1;sess=2c52afba1c8851b17c4a4eb0bc7bd425

[Costa Del Fal]

I'm not even sure 70mph is in the offing TBH (except for westward coasts of Wales). Euro 4 18z doesn't look particularly potent to me and it zips through pronto. The February 2014 event was much more potent (probably even for the Midlands) than this 'event' looks to be.

 

I should have said I was going by GFS which idea suggest that. Personally I would be surprised at that but meto still going for 60mph. Not seen often at all albeit it does rarely happen.

I'm not even sure 70mph is in the offing TBH (except for westward coasts of Wales). Euro 4 18z doesn't look particularly potent to me and it zips through pronto. The February 2014 event was much more potent (probably even for the Midlands) than this 'event' looks to be.

 

By the way does that chart cover wind gusts?

[Cheshire Freeze]

I should have said I was going by GFS which idea suggest that. Personally I would be surprised at that but meto still going for 60mph. Not seen often at all albeit it does rarely happen.

By the way does that chart cover wind gusts?

 

No, but going by experience of that model, I've seen worse situations progged than that and not been that badly affected. I think it'll be very windy, yes, but it shouldn't cause too many issues I'd have thought.

[The PIT]

Looking pretty nasty later on today and plenty of quiet weather to possibly give a sense of safety.XCweather has up to 68mph over north midlands early tonight

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning gang, 00z slight increase in wind speeds again, barney beginning to wrap up out West now..

 

Surface obs 7am this morning... 

 

Comes and goes quick..

 

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by Surrey

[Liam J]

00z NetWx-SR brings 60-65mph gusts across central/southern Ireland and into Wales early evening, also a bit further north into southern parts of N/NW England on this run, running quickly eastwards to affect central England bringing gusts of 50-65mph before the strongest winds exit around East Anglia towards midnight.

 

 

The APERGE model takes the strongest winds into W/NW Wales then sweeping across the southern counties of N England and out into the North Sea with gusts over 70mph. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Steve C]

It looks like the area of strong winds will likely shift north from that expected yesterday. I wonder if the Met Office will update accordingly? IMHO, the need for a weather warning south of the Thames is now looking marginal. 

[Richie V]

Looking pretty nasty later on today and plenty of quiet weather to possibly give a sense of safety.XCweather has up to 68mph over north midlands early tonight

hi pit, just seen bbc breakfast weather, things have certainly shifted north a tad, we're more in the game now. This eve could be quite bumpy for west and south yorkshire.

[Liam J]

Yep, there has been a tendency to shift the strongest winds a tad further north over recent runs, have to see what the Met Office say when they update the warnings later, I expect an amber warning for some but possibly less widespread than the current yellow warning. 

 

Barney is currently west of Ireland with a central pressure around 984mb so pressure is a bit lower than some models have him at this stage.

 

 

Link to surface analysis - http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&area=eur

 

 

 

 

[Liam J]

The Met Office have updated the warning earlier this morning but it's still yellow, for now at least. 

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=A7D4CE7E-F14E-056C-4788-0FB8EAAB6F31_3_NW&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1447718400

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Steve C]

I'm not even sure 70mph is in the offing TBH (except for westward coasts of Wales). Euro 4 18z doesn't look particularly potent to me and it zips through pronto. The February 2014 event was much more potent (probably even for the Midlands) than this 'event' looks to be.

 

 

 

Wasn't the Feb 2014 event the one where a red warning was issued for West Wales / NW England?

 

I don't think anyone has suggested Barney will be in that league.

[Liam J]

Also some heavy rain coming with Barney, I hope it moves through quickly as the ground is absolutely sodden and rivers are still running high and in some places are still in flood. 

 

 

 

 

[Pat Butcher]

There's also some convective activity in the works (courtesy of ESTOFEX)...

 

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 17 Nov 2015 06:00 to Wed 18 Nov 2015 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 16 Nov 2015 22:35
Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

A level 2 was issued for the Benelux countries, a large part of Germany, the NW Czech Republic and W Poland mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued for and area surrounding the level 1, including S Ireland, the S United Kingdom, larger parts of Poland and the Czech Republic, all of Germany and parts of Denmark, France, Switzerland, and Austria, mainly for severe wind gusts and to a lesser extent for tornadoes.

SYNOPSIS

During the forecast period, a strong mid-level jetstreak will rapidly enter western Europe from the Atlantic Ocean. On the southern flank of an associated eastward moving area of low pressure, a strong wind field develops and moves across South Ireland, the southern UK, Benelux, Germany and later Western Poland. Within the seasonably mild and humid air-mass organized severe convective storms are expected.

DISCUSSION

S Ireland, S UK, North Sea, Bneelux, N France, Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, W Poland, N Austria...

Upon approach of a strong mid-level jet, upward vertical motion will ovespread the mild and humid warm sector (with dew point temperatures of 11-14 C) first across southern Ireland, then the southern UK and subsequently further eastward. In response, surface-based convection coverage will increase and probably organize linearly. These storms will be embedded in a strong wind field and gusts that they produce will likely attain severe levels (> 25 m/s).

According to the GFS model, the strongest upward motion should be in the left exit region of the jet streak that becomes particularly focused during the evening. This area of upward motion will move from west to east across the indicated level 2 area, i.e from the Benelux Countries to W Poland in the 21 - 06 UTC time frame. It appears likely that well-organized linear convection with a particularly high risk of severe wind gusts will develop there as the system moves eastward. This will happen in an environment that - per GFS - will boast 200-400 J/kg CAPE, which is quite substantial for the time of year. 

The environment of the convection is characterized by strong wind shear (~ 30 m/s 0-6 km) particularly in low levels (~ 15 - 18 m/s 0-1 km). If mor or less isolated convective storms are able to form, a high tornado threat would be present, but it appears more likely that a line will be the dominant mode given the strongly localized forcing and absent CIN. 

As it presently seems unlikely that a large wind shift will occur across the line, the risk of tornadoes wih the line seems to be redduced, in accrodance with the results of Clark and Parker. Nevertheless, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out given the otherwise favourable circumstances including high wind shear, very low LCL and the strong forcing for upward motion that may locally steepen lapse rates considerably.

Behind the area of greatest convective activity, strong non-convective winds are expected occur with similar or even higher gusts.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Yep, there has been a tendency to shift the strongest winds a tad further north over recent runs, have to see what the Met Office say when they update the warnings later, I expect an amber warning for some but possibly less widespread than the current yellow warning. 

 

Barney is currently west of Ireland with a central pressure around 984mb so pressure is a bit lower than some models have him at this stage.

 

barney1.gif

 

Link to surface analysis - http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?lang=en&area=eur

 

Down to 978mb as of 9am

 

[William Grimsley]

I was going to make a thread on highest wind gust guesses for this storm. What are people's guesses on top wind gust for low level and exposed areas of SW England this evening?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I was going to make a thread on highest wind gust guesses for this storm. What are people's guesses on top wind gust for low level and exposed areas of SW England this evening?

Wouldn't rule out a rogue 65mph but typically 50-60mph

[TwisterGirl81]

Well looks like (going by GFS) for my area in Exeter that this storm has been downgraded, 50mph max gusts and not much rain to speak of, this has been the typical story this year so far  with heat/sun and then storms ie close but not close enough and I'm pretty sure we will be the last place to get snow if we get any at all down here....

 

Hopefully the new runs upgade the storm for us southwesterners

[Liam J]

Down to 978mb as of 9am

 

Yup, most model predictions don't drop Barney below 980mb.

 

You can see the very tight pressure gradient on the SW flank of Barney running across Ireland, out over the Irish Sea and into Wales & parts of NW England then zipping eastwards into the North Sea. 

 

Edited November 17, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[William Grimsley]

Wouldn't rule out a rogue 65mph but typically 50-60mph

Is that for exposed areas I presume?

[Liam J]

I was going to make a thread on highest wind gust guesses for this storm. What are people's guesses on top wind gust for low level and exposed areas of SW England this evening?

Probably 40-50mph and perhaps 50-60mph in exposure but the strongest winds are focussed further north. 

[TwisterGirl81]

I was going to make a thread on highest wind gust guesses for this storm. What are people's guesses on top wind gust for low level and exposed areas of SW England this evening?

 

Well originally a couple days ago Exeter had max windspeed forecasts of 65mph which is pretty good considering we a fairly sheltered but now  it's looking like 50mph.....But then I tend not to pay too much attention as things can happen and upgrade all of a sudden....

 

You are slightly east to me but I would expect similar max for you (going by the forecasts/models  on here, however the BBC still progs it as being severe down here)

Edited November 17, 2015 by TwisterGirl81

[William Grimsley]

Probably 40-50mph and perhaps 50-60mph in exposure but the strongest winds are focussed further north. 

Bah, that's a shame. Nothing damaging then, maybe the odd branch.

[Costa Del Fal]

I was going to make a thread on highest wind gust guesses for this storm. What are people's guesses on top wind gust for low level and exposed areas of SW England this evening?

60mph possible but more 50mph for your area I think. Certainly nothing extraordinary. However for us midlanders, 50mph is usually pretty strong by our standards so the prospect of 60-70mph is fairly rare.

Edited November 17, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Lauren]

What sort of gusts do we need to bring down trees? I ask because I've got to go out tonight and the quickest route takes me through  heavily wooded area, so I'd like to know if it's best for me to go the motorway way.

Edited November 17, 2015 by Lauren

[Costa Del Fal]

Bah, that's a shame. Nothing damaging then, maybe the odd branch.

Nothing damaging? I thought that was a good thing!