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Model output discussion - 16th Nov onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Plenty of egg on face if this winter does have a twist - baring in mind it hasn't started yet. We are a little in Un- chartered territory with regards see temps around Alaska, El NIno, low sea ice, and many various forces....Yes some do point towards a milder winter such as Westerly QBO but together they all bring a new uncharteted global pattern....not one you can predict with any certainty. In has been said by some more experienced model watchers that the nearest winter set up to all current factors is 1941...a very cold one.

Anyway, onto the charts - that is one nasty storm heading for Northern Scotland/Shetland next Monday, one to keep an eye on. And for those budding skiers amongst you, let's hope the high doesn't set up around the Alps for the next few weeks, not what they will want down there.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Hey up, is the pub run about to deliver again in FI?

 

npsh500.png

 

 

 

Certainly a much weaker vortex than the 12z

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Jet stream isn't screaming Zonal here at day 12 although it does revert a little in the far reaches of FI. 👎

post-18651-0-67457600-1448319423_thumb.p

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Plenty of egg on face if this winter does have a twist - baring in mind it hasn't started yet. We are a little in Un- chartered territory with regards see temps around Alaska, El NIno, low sea ice, and many various forces....Yes some do point towards a milder winter such as Westerly QBO but together they all bring a new uncharteted global pattern....not one you can predict with any certainty. In has been said by some more experienced model watchers that the nearest winter set up to all current factors is 1941...a very cold one.

 Not sure what you mean by 'uncharted territory' ? Its all very standard. e.g El Nino, low sea ice etc is hardly new

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

ECMWF EPS weeklies just out, and FWIW the EPS control run looks interesting from day 16 to day 32, with the combo of strong Canadian high and Siberian high breaching through to the pole at times, heights rising over Svalbard too from day 20, all of which would induce a more meridional flow over the N Atlantic/N Europe towards mid-December.

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Not sure what you mean by 'uncharted territory' ? Its all very standard. e.g El Nino, low sea ice etc is hardly new

If you can name another year with a strong El Niño, warm North Pacific, cold central Atlantic, lowering sun activity, in a westerly QBO with good early Siberian snow cover I'll take your point. I agree a cold winter isn't looking on the cards, but so many variables make it no where near straight forward to predict ..

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Jet stream isn't screaming Zonal here at day 12 although it does revert a little in the far reaches of FI. 👎

It is rather zonal with 'potential' any depressions will be carried like a conveyor belt straight to our shores I sense a very unsettled start to the winter is coming. I think we can wipe 2 weeks for any meaningful cold/snow aside from fleeting wintriness on uplands of northern Britain. I expect this to increasingly wane as we got into mid December into festive period I'll rather endure this now than New Years. A lot is riding on this Siberian high by the sound of it - it may be the catalyst we need to initiate something much more favourable. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

ECMWF EPS weeklies just out, and FWIW the EPS control run looks interesting from day 16 to day 32, with the combo of strong Canadian high and Siberian high breaching through to the pole at times, heights rising over Svalbard too from day 20, all of which would induce a more meridional flow over the N Atlantic/N Europe towards mid-December.

 

Certainly fits with my expectations but maybe a tad premature in terms of timeframe- though I'm guessing it shows just what could happen if things run in our favour.

 

What we're not seeing in any of the models is a flat, fast jet circumnavigating the globe in unstoppable fashion....that is a far cry from where we've been at this juncture in other years.

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

UKMO has another chilly weekend lined up though GFS is less clean and thus doesn't get colder air South.

Shame there are no 850's for UKMO but this chart for Sunday looks like it might get some cold air quite far South albeit relatively short lived.

 

UN120-21.GIF?24-05

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

ECMWF EPS weeklies just out, and FWIW the EPS control run looks interesting from day 16 to day 32, with the combo of strong Canadian high and Siberian high breaching through to the pole at times, heights rising over Svalbard too from day 20, all of which would induce a more meridional flow over the N Atlantic/N Europe towards mid-December.

 

Although this may well be true, although the combo of the Siberian and Canadian HP is debatable towards the end of the run, surely care has to be taken not to read to much into this.

 

Looking at the ens mean anomalies, and I appreciate you will get a flattening of the flow the further out one travels, to my untutored eye there is no appreciable change from the current pattern between now and Xmas Day.

 

On the 9th December we have HP North America and Russia with the Azores pushing up from the south with low pressure Siberia/Alaska and Greenland with trough into Scandinavia.  By the 25th Low pressure Siberia/Alaska and Greenland with trough down to the UK and HP NE Canada and Russia with less influence from the Azores.

 

Thus a rough summary for the period would be a continuation of the westerly flow with alternating periods of influence from the Pm and Tm airmassess with temps around average but varying during the transition of systems from the west. All of this inclining to a N/S split.

 

N.B. I also appreciate without looking at the full suite one can also read too much into this but I can only tell it as I see it.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

The longer range GFS and ECM look exceptionally mild this morning. Something along the lines of what we experienced through the first half of november!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel2.gif

Can we have some more cold please!!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

In fact by 180 hours there isn't really any cold air anywhere across Europe or the USa and Canada!? 850s up near 5c at the start of December!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rhavn1802.gif

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I'll try again after nearly 10 minutes setting up a post, it disappeared as I tried to type a link ECMWF!

back in a bit

 

Trying again

Using the 3 anomaly sets of charts I use then they do not suugest any lasting deep cold nor do they suggest a very mild long spell of weather. With a broadly westerly flow at 500mb, switching between about 300 and 250 degrees then occasional Pm and Tm air seems the weather pattern for about 2 weeks or so. Nor does the MJO (GFS version) suggest anything might change with orbits ending almost at the origin. Synoptic charts, naturally enough, given what is suggested above are and will continue to switch from cold looking to mild looking. What they do show is that surface features will move quickly across the Atlantic bringing their switches from Pm to Tm air, pretty much on a NW-N/SW-S split. Hills of Scotland being the most likely to have snow cover at times. If one looks at the overall pattern predicted on the UK Met Fax charts it gives as good an idea as we are likely to get from free data as to what to expect.

Links, trying again

ECMWF-GFS, note not able to get the 00z version I usually input so this is the 12z from last night

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

NOAA

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

MJO (GFS version)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/whindex.shtml

NAEFS

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=240&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm

and of course the various synoptic model outputs for comparison

 

from the post above by Fergie from Met Office briefings it seems they suggest much as I've posted and indeed they seem to have nothing beyond 2 weeks to mark any major change.

This should not be surprising given the overall upper pattern and ENSO outputs along with their monthly charts they issue which are along similar lines.

So to those wanting sub zero values for days on end and deep snow=sorry, not yet on the menu sheet. 

Edited by johnholmes
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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The balance of power has shifted more in favour of higher heights over Europe at the expense of such over central/eastern Asia. Not a great trend for both the medium and longer term - and seemingly a reflection of amplification returning but too late to prevent low pressure from advancing as far as Siberia by 9 or 10 days from now.

 

Having said that, a Siberian storm coupled with an increasingly meridional jet could produce cyclonic wave breaking off the Asian mountains. The GFS 00z det. falls short of this, with a flatter jet, but the ECM counterpart is more like what I'm talking about.

 

 

Really the bulk of December is now looking more like I imagined it would, based on current guidance. The expectation has been that I'd spend the month focusing on stratospheric developments in light of a lack of much weather interest in the troposphere - though it'll probably be wet and wild in the north on more occasions than many would like.

 

I say more like, as there's still a notable lack of polar vortex organisation in the troposphere being depicted by the models - it has a go here and there but never really kicks off. So long as this continues, there's a chance of a deviation from the westerly regime - and it should prove difficult for the models to pick out in advance, given the lack of a consistent driving force at the high latitudes.

 

The GFS 00z det. doesn't offer any cold conditions beyond +240 but does set up a pattern reminiscent of Nov 2009 in which large Atlantic storms come up against a Eurasian Block, resulting in frontal systems piling into the UK only to slow down overhead and dump large volumes of rain. It's one possible consequence of the more meridional jet that a disorganised polar vortex permits.

Edited by Singularity
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

ECM ens

 

After a short lived north westerly flow at the weekend perhaps bringing some snow to the northern hills we see a return to a westerly flow winds strong at times with some rain or showers crossing the UK however as the high begins to dominate over large parts of mainland Europe this could move up to the UK keeping the south and SE drier and less windy over time

 

Reem1441.gifReem1681.gifReem1921.gifReem2161.gifReem2401.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I wouldn't at this stage worry too much about models saying SW'ly regime for month ahead, we had that in Nov with anomaly charts and like and then we had a nice change come upon us which wasn't in that script.  Let's get to weekend and see where we are headed as although no freeze anticipated or major northern blocking, I don't think Euro HP is a given either and must be treated with equal caution as I think pM air is always close enough to be well in the mix. 

 

BFTP 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Sorry Fred, but the anomaly charts have never precluded a 48-72 hour cold snap; in fact, they've suggested that such an event is always possible... :)

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Sorry Fred, but the anomaly charts have never precluded a 48-72 hour cold snap; in fact, they've suggested that such an event is always possible... :)

 

They had Euro HP dominant and fixed and weren't they showing the same for rest of 2015?  Now re always possible...I would say a a January 1987 event in next couple of weeks is impossible :D

 

Personally thanks for message you posted :good: much appreciated

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

The models don't suggest a SW dominated month ahead - they suggest a predominant W/SW flow for the 7-10 day period, after that anything could happen!

As it is I still don't mind this set up, as I believe we are still a good 3 weeks away from the start of the optimum period for cold. Much as summer doesn't usually have much oomph in late may/early june....winter doesn't tend to pack much of a punch in late november/early december!

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

They had Euro HP dominant and fixed and weren't they showing the same for rest of 2015?  Now re always possible...I would say a a January 1987 event in next couple of weeks is impossible :D

 

Personally thanks for message you posted :good: much appreciated

 

BFTP

 

Not sure which anomaly charts you refer to above Fred. Certainly not the ones I use. Indeed their time scale is, at most, 15 days with NOAA. Not sure what any others show as I have never done as much checking on them as I did a few years ago with NOAA along with EC-GFS?

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

Not sure which anomaly charts you refer to above Fred. Certainly not the ones I use. Indeed their time scale is, at most, 15 days with NOAA. Not sure what any others show as I have never done as much checking on them as I did a few years ago with NOAA along with EC-GFS?

 

Indeed not John,  I read your updates and outlooks with great interest.  I'm derailing things here its probably the longer term ones that get posted up about the place and my post is more angled about the reliability detail of anomaly models and not about any posters and assessments.

 

regards

 

Fred aka BFTP

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