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November 2015 -- Your C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Corby 130 meters above sea level

please up mine to 8.1. cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

I'll join the rest of ya...Up mine to 7.5c please :)

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

8.2c

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Must admit, can't see it being a particularly chilly month. Kinda feel blocking could be quite stubborn to our East over Mainland Europe at times and prevent much in the way of cold shots developing from the North. Possible things may change and, as such, wouldn't completely rule out a colder spell occurring towards the end of the month.

Guess: 7.2*C

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Missed out the word 'chilly' in the first sentence.
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

I think November could have some cold shots in it How ever I can't see anything too cold. I'm going 8.4c. thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

My entry of 4.0C is looking shaky already. But I'll stick to my guns.

  • Like 5
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Posted
  • Location: York
  • Weather Preferences: Long warm summer evenings. Cold frosty sunny winter days.
  • Location: York

I will go for 5.9 please

  • Like 1
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Here's what today's 06z GFS has for the first 8 days

 

13.3C to the 1st (13.3: +3.9) [Record high: 13.5]
12.6C to the 2nd (11.8: +2.8]
12.3C to the 3rd (11.9: +2.9)
12.4C to the 4th (12.8: +4.2)
12.5C to the 5th (12.8: +4.5)
12.4C to the 6th (12.0: +3.8]
12.6C to the 7th (13.5: +5.2) [Record high: 13.4]
12.3C to the 8th (10.2: +1.5)
 
So not as mild as recent forecasts, but milder than any other start to November on record, even out to the 8th.
 
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

That should be a wake-up call because from 12.3 on 8th, you need to average 5.1 rest of the month to get to a final of 7.0, and even a fairly normal 7 the rest of the way gives a value of 8.4 C. To beat the all-time record of 10.2 you would only need to average 9.4 C.

 

If it gets to the 15th at 10.0 then your forecast value basically needs to be twice as far below 10 (example, you say 8, you need 6) for the second half of the month in order to verify.

 

OTOH, November 2010 started fairly mild as well ...

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

We've not had a month this year more than 1C away from the 1981-2010 average so i'm sticking with my prediction albeit i do think that Nov or Dec is the most likely to break that duct since October was calmer than expected.

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Can I increase it to 8.5c

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

I'm upping my estimate to 8.8c please. :)

Edited by Costa Del Fal
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Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

6.9c for me please.

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