Winter 2015/16

[Relativistic]

Don't really know where to put this, but I thought this thread is probably the most suitable.

 

Anyway, I noticed something in the CET series (I'm sure someone has probably picked up on this before) that I thought might be of interest.

 

I noticed that in many cases, 7±1 years after a subzero CET month was recorded, you get another one.

 

Below is a list of all such cases (I think). Where a month came in at 0C before recording to the nearest 0.1C was implemented, I gave the month the benefit of the doubt and assumed it was subzero.

 

Jan 1660 (0) à Jan 1667 (0) [7 years]

Dec 1676 (-0.5) à Jan 1684 (-3), Feb 1684 (-1) [7 years]

Jan 1684 (-3), Feb 1684 (-1) à Feb 1692 (0) [8 years]

Feb 1692 (0) à Jan 1698 (0) [6 years]

Jan 1709 (-1.5) à Jan 1716 (-2) [7 years]

Jan 1776 (-1.6) à Jan 1784 (-0.6) [7 years]

Dec 1788 (-0.3) à Jan 1795 (-3.1) [6 years], Dec 1796 (-0.3) [8 years]

Jan 1814 (-2.9) à Jan 1820 (-0.3) [6 years]

Jan 1823 (-0.1) à Jan 1830 (-0.2) [7 years]

Jan 1830 (-0.2) à Jan 1838 (-1.5) [8 years]

Dec 1874 (-0.2) à Jan 1881 (-1.5) [6 years]

Jan 1940 (-1.4) à Feb 1947 (-1.9) [7 years]

Feb 1956 (-0.2) à Jan 1963 (-2.1), Feb 1963 (-0.7) [7 years]

Jan 1979 (-0.4) à Feb 1986 (-1.1) [7 years]

 

Notable months that didn’t make the list:

Jan, Feb 1740 (-2.8, -1.6)

Feb 1855 (-1.7)

Dec 1890 (-0.8 )

Feb 1895 (-1.8 )

 

Of course this could all be a coincidence, but interesting nonetheless.

 

So while this doesn't suggest any subzero months this Winter, perhaps Winter 2018 will deliver the goods...

Edited October 1, 2015 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[Boro Snow]

From a cold and snow perspective, I don't understand why so many people hated last winter. It was very average temperature-wise - mixed mild and cold spells and for me had snow in all three winter months, plus March as well and a few good frosts. Maybe in the SE it was poor for snow, but certainly not further north.

disagree here in the north east it was the 2nd year in a row with not much snow we had a few days of lying snow but it was at a max 1cm deep a really poor winter,  on the tops of the dales etc yes plenty but on lower ground it was always marginal whether snow would fall or not, and winds mainly from the north west is mostly always poor for us 

[Nick L]

 

Interesting comparison between 'normal' and 'Modoki' El-Nino temperature differences. In our backyard, although due to it's position on the pictures and it's size, the UK doesn't seem to be much different (except for Ireland maybe). Mainland Europe though shows a massive difference, being much warmer in Modoki than normal El-Nino events. Doesn't that go against what I've been hearing i.e. that A Modoki El-Nino is more favorable for a cold winter? Or are we just playing with very small datasets, too small to really determine if trends really exist?

 

 

Even many areas much further north weren't great for snow either, we had a fairly dry and snow-less winter because everything was coming in from a Westerly direction.

 

Yep, last year was poor for snow. But still far better than 2013/14.

[Ravelin]

Yep, last year was poor for snow. But still far better than 2013/14.

 

Depends on your perspective...

 

2013/14

At Home - Cool with incessant rain and virtually no snow.

 

On Hills - Ski resorts across Scotland were generally getting pasted, but getting a day where it wasn't blowing a gale was touch and go. Skied at Glenshee 3 times with more snow under my skis than I've ever know, but  by comparison Lecht was too low and suffered badly.

 

2014/15

At Home - Often quite cold but mainly dry due to showers dying out over the Cairngorms, so again virtually no snow.

 

On Hills - Ski resorts in the West (Nevis & Glencoe) had good amounts of snow. Those to the East didn't do as well, especially Glenshee. Skied at Lecht twice and made a rare trip over to Nevis for 2 days there in Feb. Conditions were OK but nothing like the year before. Didn't ski at Glenshee once, which is unusual for me as it's my favorite and less than 1.5hrs door to slope in the car.

 

Not an easy choice between the two. 13/14 gets it for the skiing, despite the constant windy days. 14/15 gets it for home, because it was drier and colder (but hugely frustrating watching snow showers die out on the weather radar).

Edited October 1, 2015 by Ravelin

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Last winter in the east was  only slightly improved from 2013/14 - my area had lying snow, but it was around 1 cm and it lasted around 2 hours.

[cheese]

Last winter was normal for snow here - a few days of lying snow, about 5-7cm deep at most. We're only at 80m ASL but that slight increase in elevation makes all the difference as go down a few metres and there was practically nothing.

I remember walking to the doctors one morning in January and it was snowing heavily - a few cm on the ground. Lasted on and off for much of the day. I have pictures somewhere.

Edited October 1, 2015 by cheese

[Daniel*]

Last winter in the east was  only slightly improved from 2013/14 - my area had lying snow, but it was around 1 cm and it lasted around 2 hours.

Last winter was abysmal the one before that was horrific.

[Weather of Mass Disruption]

From a cold and snow perspective, I don't understand why so many people hated last winter. It was very average temperature-wise - mixed mild and cold spells and for me had snow in all three winter months, plus March as well and a few good frosts. Maybe in the SE it was poor for snow, but certainly not further north.

 

I guess we have been spoilt with the likes of December 2010, March 2013 etc. so once you have tasted a really decent spell of winter weather, you crave for more!   I think we did have snow last winter on one occasion, which hung around for about a week, but it was nothing to rave about and I was laid up in bed with man flu so couldn't enjoy it anyway.

 

If we can't have a month or more of cold, snowy proper winter weather then I would take a right royal one off dumping. Where about 2-3ft of snow falls over night and you can't move anywhere the next day. I just want to see my 2 year Golden Retriever diving about in it, but so far (in his young life) we haven't had anything good enough for him do so...   

[reef]

The last two winters have been exceptionally poor here. 2013/14 was completely snowless with no falling or lying snow. The only day with anything lying in 2014/15 at 0900 was 3rd February but that only just managed a 50% cover.

 

26th January 2013 was the last day we had any measurable snow here.

 

The 2013-2015 period has been even worse than 1988-1990 as at least Autumn and Spring had some falling/lying snow back then:

 

April 1988 - May 1990: 20 days falling sleet / snow, 5 days lying snow at 0900

April 2013 - May 2015: 12 days falling sleet / snow, 1 day lying snow at 0900

 

It really has been abysmal, no way can this winter be worse!

[The PIT]

Last winter didn't getting any lying snow until boxing day then we had a huge dump of snow leading 17cm of wet snow. Plenty more Snow in Jan not a lot in Feb. Boxing day was the best and a surprise dumping from a marginal situation.

[cheese]

We had snow on Boxing Day too - but not much. About 2cm or so. Was still a nice surprise given how marginal it was.

 

South Yorkshire got lucky last winter.

Edited October 1, 2015 by cheese

[iand61]

We had snow on Boxing Day too - but not much. About 2cm or so. Was still a nice surprise given how marginal it was.

 

South Yorkshire got lucky last winter.

We did ok on Boxing Day and had a day of heavy showers which dumped around a foot of snow later on in the winter but other than that it was always marginal at best and that is at my altitude.

[cheese]

Some of the snow we got in January:

 

 

Temple Newsam park:

 

Edited October 1, 2015 by cheese

[jethro]

Don't think the Mendip hills had any snow last year, if we did it was certainly so forgettable it didn't register with me. The snow in Yorkshire on Boxing day has to rate as one of the most frustrating from my perspective......we were in Swaledale for Christmas, forecasts promising snow but all it did was rain. Couldn't quite believe it, thought that nonsense was a soggy South West phenomena. We did find snow by driving up the dale to the Tan Hill Inn but even at that height, it was no more than a dusting. The journey home on the 27th however was a bleeding nightmare - stationary or very slow traffic because of the snow meant it took nearly 7 hours to get from Swaledale to roughly Nottingham. Normal 5 hour journey turned into an epic 11 hour stint. Bonkers!

[Costa Del Fal]

It did snow briefly in Falmouth earlier this year but didnt settle although it did in Penryn which is a fair bit higher in elevation. However since I last saw any meaningful snow it has to have been a few years now. 2012 or something!

[Nick L]

I haven't seen settling snow in this country that has lasted more than 24 hours for about 4 years.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I haven't seen settling snow in this country that has lasted more than 24 hours for about 4 years.

 

were you not in Cannock boxing day? and saw a few smatterings in Jan

[cheese]

Our last significant snow was March 2013 - but waiting that long isn't unusual. Most winters in this country aren't going to deliver major snowfalls.

[Nick L]

were you not in Cannock boxing day? and saw a few smatterings in Jan

 

It was more slush than snow later the next day.

[John Badrick]

We had quite a bit of snow for a few days down here in a Cornwall, but nothing special, nothing like 2009/10. I would take a guess and say the next memorable winter for us will be 2018/19 (around solar min) I think it was knocker in a different thread that pointed out that we seem to have had cold winters coincide with solar mins recently

Edited October 1, 2015 by John Badrick

[Dancerwithwings]

Mid to late March 2013 & December 2010 were exceptional, especially for the time of the year but when you expect it to be cold and snowy

(Jan/Feb) it hasn't really happen around these parts of the woods for a few years now, not proper Winter anyway.

[Mountain Snow]

Last winter was very good for here, although quite localised. Had a week of lying snow mid January followed by a day of blizzards at the end of the month leaving waist deep drifts. This then lay for two weeks into Feb. A repeat this year would be very welcome, coupled with Dec 2010 temperatures!

[virtualsphere]

There's been no shortage of northern blocking in recent years - something that seemed in short supply in the period leading up until about 2008 - but since March 2013 it has been in the 'wrong' place for the UK (unless you like a good soaking).  Take winter 2013-14, for example - the 500mb height anomaly chart shows plenty of greens and yellows over the pole, especially when compared to winter 1989-90:

 

 

Take another recent winter, 2009-10.  Again, plenty of those positive green and yellows showing, but they key difference for us is that area over Greenland, Canada and N USA.  In 2009-10 the core of the blocking is there to deflect the Atlantic lows south, while in 2013-14 a deep negative anomaly illustrates the displaced polar vortex in just the wrong place to spawn deep areas of low pressure and send them spinning over the Atlantic. With blocking in situ over NE Europe, these get stuck over the UK.  I wouldn't be surprised if that was a record negative anomaly over Ireland and western parts of the UK.

 

 

Last year was quite different - a more traditional 'wet' winter pattern than 2013-14 with negative heights north of the UK and a strong block further south.  

 

 

1962-63 is interesting, because for the US, Canada and north Pacific, the chart shows a very similar pattern to 2013-14.  It couldn't have been more different over the UK and Europe, of course... with that large block over Greenland extending over Iceland.  

 

 

Anyway, a few different patterns to look out for here this coming winter!  We're probably overdue in seeing a dry winter with some blocking over the UK, as in 2005-06 or 1991-92, but that doesn't mean it will happen.

[damianslaw]

Last winter was very good for here, although quite localised. Had a week of lying snow mid January followed by a day of blizzards at the end of the month leaving waist deep drifts. This then lay for two weeks into Feb. A repeat this year would be very welcome, coupled with Dec 2010 temperatures!

 

The NW quarter of the UK did ok for snow last winter thanks to injections of unstable polar maritime air, but conditions were marginal for lower ground. Places with height did quite well, we were often just on the right side of marginal with a number of slight coverings from time to time, but never amounting to much.

 

The last decent fall of snow here was the 26 Jan 2013 when we recorded 8 inches. We missed out in March 2013.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

One thing that has been missing in recentt years is a very long fetch unstable northerly during the winter months. Really hope to have that set up this winter as it can lead to great radar watching if snow showers are your thing.

Edited October 1, 2015 by Grimsby Snow Lover