Winter 2015/16

[Methuselah]

and whats joe thoughts on this winter for the uk

Who cares!

[jvenge]

Definitely true whenever there is apbnormal cold in Scandinavia there is always a chance the UK could tap into it under right synoptic as you say. Long range weather forecasting is a fickle business, could anyone share what there thoughts were for last winter? I do think there will be a southerly tracking jet, with the jet being rebounded south - by cold Atlantic & extensive HP over northern latitudes, so a wet winter for the med IMO. The Scottish mountains/hills will do remarkably well. I will be very startled if UK does not have at least 1 notable cold spell the telecommunications are a total reverse to last year, so there are reasons to be hopeful.

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

 

I wasn't in the UK for much of last winter, so no idea if they were right or not. Not that it means too much though :-) Right one year doesn't mean anything really.

[Met4Cast]

"High pressure to the north of the United Kingdom for much of the winter season will result in a very typical winter for parts of northwest Europe with stretches of tranquil weather and overall near-normal temperatures."

 

Near normal temperatures with high pressure to the North of the UK while Scandi is "abnormally cold"? hmmm. Have they forgotten which way the air circulates around high pressure systems or something

Edited October 12, 2015 by Daniel Smith

[Methuselah]

Definitely true whenever there is apbnormal cold in Scandinavia there is always a chance the UK could tap into it under right synoptic as you say. Long range weather forecasting is a fickle business, could anyone share what there thoughts were for last winter? I do think there will be a southerly tracking jet, with the jet being rebounded south - by cold Atlantic & extensive HP over northern latitudes, so a wet winter for the med IMO. The Scottish mountains/hills will do remarkably well. I will be very startled if UK does not have at least 1 notable cold spell the telecommunications are a total reverse to last year, so there are reasons to be hopeful.

I agree with you, Daniel; with the long sea-track across the North Sea, 5C in Oslo isn't much use...February 1973 was a case in point.

[Weather-history]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-2016-europe-winter-forecast-seasonable-london-paris-storms-france-italy-alps/52871620

Accuweather winter forecast for Europe.

"High pressure to the north of the United Kingdom for much of the winter season will result in a very typical winter for parts of northwest Europe with stretches of tranquil weather and overall near-normal temperatures."

Isn't the typical winter weather pattern for NW Europe, an Icelandic low and Azores high with a broad strong western flow?

The above, IMO, is not a typical winter weather pattern for NW Europe.

Edited October 12, 2015 by Weather-history

[Daniel*]

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-winter-2014-2015-forecast-snow-cold/36777733

 

I wasn't in the UK for much of last winter, so no idea if they were right or not. Not that it means too much though :-) Right one year doesn't mean anything really.

I read this and stopped reading:

Following a mild winter for almost all of Europe during the 2013-2014 season, big differences are expected for many areas during the 2014-2015 winter season.

The large-scale weather pattern will feature stubborn areas of high pressure over Scandinavia for much of the winter. This setup will funnel colder air into northern and eastern Europe while also forcing the majority of storm systems to track across southern Europe, especially during the second half of winter.

This did not happen Eastern Europe had a very mild winter It's a roll of the dice IMO.

http://tass.ru/en/non-political/780560

[Hocus Pocus]

Who cares!

Why, do you know more than him.

[Methuselah]

Why, do you know more than him.

Pass! But how many 'brutal' winters has 'Big Joe' accurately forecast?  

[WillinGlossop]

Last winter was great up in derbyshire..... Although nothing like march 2013 before i moved up, it was notable.... 6 inches of snow boxing day, a foot of snow in jan and feb..... Previous winter was pretty much snowless,.... Hoping for something like 2009/10 as that year i was in new zealand and i am this dec/jan.... So maybe snow when i get back at end of jan.... Just saying... â„â„

[Hocus Pocus]

Pass! But how many 'brutal' winters has 'Big Joe' accurately forecast?  

Well you could argue how many have our own MetO got wrong over the years but that doesn't make them rubbish does it. He's a trained and well respected metrologist and a very successful one at that.

[Methuselah]

Well you could argue how many have our own MetO got wrong over the years but that doesn't make them rubbish does it. He's a trained and well respected metrologist and a very successful one at that.

Is that someone who understands underground railway systems? Anywho, however trained he is, he routinely gets his 'forecasts' for the UK completely and utterly wrong. Hence my reasons for not being all that bothered by what he says...

[Nouska]

Nice forecast on the Met office ensembles - high, dry and cool.

 

   

 

No beasts but kept cool by the SST anomaly and winds from northerly points.

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

and whats joe thoughts on this winter for the uk

Not seen in any detail - he has done a pretty good job on the past two winters stateside.

[Singularity]

Not always across so to speak CP vs EP ninos have different impacts on strat.

Nino update from CPC out later today as is MJO, IIRC monthly model cluster usually after mid month.

Depends what you are looking at Nino for,as definitive imprints for Europe are less marked than CONUS. The GLAAM state accompanying Nino though is going to be fun..Esp after that Nina ish grind over last winter.

 

It's mainly the possibility of a more central based El Nino evolving that has been of interest to be honest. I'm aware that even strong El Ninos don't have a correlation with UK conditions that qualifies as significant. There is a connection with higher pressure over Central Europe/Med. I believe, but the proximity to the UK has a lot of wiggle room I suspect.

 

- - - - - - -

 

Looking at the Met Office GloSea5 ensemble update, from Dec/Jan/Feb to Jan/Feb/Mar, there's a strong signal for blocking to become increasingly prevalent at the high latitudes with a possible focus to the northwest. That focus to the NW ties in well with the February analogue year composites that use E.P. Nino + W. QBO as criteria, or W. QBO + Positive PDO. The remarkably strong high latitude blocking signal however... well, it seems that when using composites, there's a right mix of years with and without HLB - which probably has a lot to do with stratospheric events leading to an effective SSW/Major Warming in some cases but not others - and this combines into a fairly neutral mean anomaly across the high latitudes.

 

So just what is GloSea5 seeing? The only forcing in place that I'm at all familiar with, and which can produce such a strong HLB blocking signal, is a low Arctic sea ice minimum.

 

However... I have a feeling that GloSea5 (or it may have been 4 back then) spotted the change to high latitude blocking in either 2008/09 or 2009/10 quite a way in advance, and this was attributed to effective modelling of the stratosphere. Is it at all possible that GloSea5 could (reliably...!) anticipate a significant warming event (be it SSW, Major, Canadian...) several months in advance? I mean, to have such a strong anomaly in the mean outcome, there needs to be a lot of runs producing the HLB, surely more than would be achieved by chance.

 

 

Apologies if I'm rambling at all - it's past 11 again and the restraints tend to get a bit loose 

[lorenzo]

HLBs resultant of MJO forcing lifting GLAAM, whereby we already have anomalous suppression over initiation region for MJO, regimes are delayed, as are Nino evolutions as a result. MJO plots and analogs irrelvant til at least w/c 30/10.

 

Delayed MJO, faster wave across building Vortex Intensification Period, then we have a cold, established vortex for core winter.

 

Unless, the pre-cursor Autumn patterns aid and abet vortex formation in such a manner that creates a template for - nurture or destablisation versus the canonical ENSO pull through via Canonical Rossby Waves...

 

Patterns which are eschewed by ENSO flip QBO switch... 

 

Glosea5 ( extended hi top)  has done very, very well - we see all of broad of seasonal but up close for forecasting none or little of how it gets their...

 

Why is ECM King...

[lorenzo]

Couple of days only left of current conditions, look what transpires to aggressively switch the analogs...

 

Livelier month ahead on the MOD with different variations on vortex evolution in F.I

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Nice forecast on the Met office ensembles - high, dry and cool.

 

   

 

No beasts but kept cool by the SST anomaly and winds from northerly points.

 

I have to say that is a very VERY nice update from the Glosea there. My interpretation of that would be often cold and wintry but hey, what do I know

 

Looking at that last chart, it looks as though it goes for a CB El Nino.

Edited October 13, 2015 by CreweCold

[MPG]

HLBs resultant of MJO forcing lifting GLAAM, whereby we already have anomalous suppression over initiation region for MJO, regimes are delayed, as are Nino evolutions as a result. MJO plots and analogs irrelvant til at least w/c 30/10.

 

Delayed MJO, faster wave across building Vortex Intensification Period, then we have a cold, established vortex for core winter.

 

Unless, the pre-cursor Autumn patterns aid and abet vortex formation in such a manner that creates a template for - nurture or destablisation versus the canonical ENSO pull through via Canonical Rossby Waves...

 

Patterns which are eschewed by ENSO flip QBO switch... 

 

Glosea5 ( extended hi top)  has done very, very well - we see all of broad of seasonal but up close for forecasting none or little of how it gets their...

 

Why is ECM King...

Sorry but makes absolutely no sense. Where did you copy and past that from?

[Yarmy]

It's mainly the possibility of a more central based El Nino evolving that has been of interest to be honest. I'm aware that even strong El Ninos don't have a correlation with UK conditions that qualifies as significant. There is a connection with higher pressure over Central Europe/Med. I believe, but the proximity to the UK has a lot of wiggle room I suspect.

 

- - - - - - -

 

Looking at the Met Office GloSea5 ensemble update, from Dec/Jan/Feb to Jan/Feb/Mar, there's a strong signal for blocking to become increasingly prevalent at the high latitudes with a possible focus to the northwest. That focus to the NW ties in well with the February analogue year composites that use E.P. Nino + W. QBO as criteria, or W. QBO + Positive PDO. The remarkably strong high latitude blocking signal however... well, it seems that when using composites, there's a right mix of years with and without HLB - which probably has a lot to do with stratospheric events leading to an effective SSW/Major Warming in some cases but not others - and this combines into a fairly neutral mean anomaly across the high latitudes.

 

So just what is GloSea5 seeing? The only forcing in place that I'm at all familiar with, and which can produce such a strong HLB blocking signal, is a low Arctic sea ice minimum.

 

However... I have a feeling that GloSea5 (or it may have been 4 back then) spotted the change to high latitude blocking in either 2008/09 or 2009/10 quite a way in advance, and this was attributed to effective modelling of the stratosphere. Is it at all possible that GloSea5 could (reliably...!) anticipate a significant warming event (be it SSW, Major, Canadian...) several months in advance? I mean, to have such a strong anomaly in the mean outcome, there needs to be a lot of runs producing the HLB, surely more than would be achieved by chance.

 

 

Apologies if I'm rambling at all - it's past 11 again and the restraints tend to get a bit loose 

 

Of course it's unabashed confirmation bias on my part, but I would take the GloSea5 over any number of composites or analogue years.

 

Hints of a more Atlantic zonal setup appearing in the models now for the end of October. For any nervous nellies, I give you this chart as an example of a properly organised PV:

 

Edited October 13, 2015 by Yarmy

[iceman1991]

Very interesting arctical here guys checked back to the last time the birds come very early in 1980 the winter that followed that was very cold and snowy I think natures alot more accurate than computer models will just have to wait and see.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11926752/Britain-faces-longest-winter-in-50-years-after-earliest-ever-arrival-of-Siberian-swan.html

[Yarmy]

Very interesting arctical here guys checked back to the last time the birds come very early in 1980 the winter that followed that was very cold and snowy I think natures alot more accurate than computer models will just have to wait and see.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weather/11926752/Britain-faces-longest-winter-in-50-years-after-earliest-ever-arrival-of-Siberian-swan.html

 

 

It's laughable drivel. Nature is reactive, not predictive. Neither that swan nor my pet hamster know what the weather is going to be like in winter.

[bobbydog]

It's laughable drivel. Nature is reactive, not predictive. Neither that swan nor my pet hamster know what the weather is going to be like in winter.

not necessarily- i asked my dog what he thought winter would be like and he said; "ruff".....

[Yarmy]

not necessarily- i asked my dog what he thought winter would be like and he said; "ruff".....

 

 

To be fair, my goldfish knows it's going to be predominantly wet where he lives.

[Gael_Force]

It's laughable drivel. Nature is reactive, not predictive. Neither that swan nor my pet hamster know what the weather is going to be like in winter.

I'm presuming these Siberian swans are reacting to the rapid snowcover advance - much as some on here are.

 

Think about it.....

[Yarmy]

I'm presuming these Siberian swans are reacting to the rapid snowcover advance - much as some on here are.

 

Think about it.....

 

Well of course, it just means it's cold where they've come from. Besides, we had record advances last year (or specifically record rate of advance) and a fat lot of good it did us.