atlantic Major Hurricane Joaquin

[lorenzo]

Recon has found 939mb, 134mph.

Probably category 4 and looking exceptional.

 

I wonder if that is the 06z GFS run with the most data fed into it ever for the usually errant 06z GFS !

 

ECM on the cusp of a model win here...

 

00z ENS

 

Couple of recent satellite images.

 

Edited October 1, 2015 by lorenzo

[Sainsbo]

The situation is so volatile that I really don't think it's even worth looking at the models past 48 hours. How long is stalls over the Bahamas, and how sharp the north turn is will greatly effect it's path later down the line, and so far none of the models are consistent even with their prevoius runs, let along each other.

 

Looks like it's still strengthening though, the eye seems to be warming up a little

[Singularity]

http://media.giphy.com/media/3oEduLwjqJIzvbfoY0/giphy.gif

 

Joaquin is starting to take on that category 5 appearance ('fat doughnut', pinhole eye, 'buzz-saw look').

 

The spiral banding remains, though, so we're not talking about an annular storm at the moment, thankfully.

 

I wonder if, as it edges close to Cuba, the broad-scale flow reflecting off the mountains might add to the convergence within the storm?

[lorenzo]

[Nouska]

Such a complicated overview, no wonder the models are having difficulties.

 

 

All the remnants of the last couple of systems are still lingering and playing a part in the picture.

 

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

 

Joaquin still defies even the ECM by continuing on its southerly meanderings - also 10mb deeper than ECM showed for this time.

 

[knocker]

Philip Klotzbach â€@philklotzbach 42m42 minutes ago

What is the spread of possible tracks for #Joaquin according to the ECMWF model? Here's the latest ensemble run.

 

[radiohead]

Joaquin still defies even the ECM by continuing on its southerly meanderings - also 10mb deeper than ECM showed for this time.

 

 

 

It looks like the turn may be about to begin now.

Edited October 1, 2015 by radiohead

[Daniel*]

I think this could get quite ugly v. interesting.

[radiohead]

Recon has found pressure is down to 935mb now.

12Z GFS has just initialized it at 956mb.

[Gray-Wolf]

Everything will ( hopefully?) appear clearer as the sun comes up there tomorrow?

 

I just wonder if the old storm, out to its east, will play any part should Joaquin head for the East coast? If it reforms over the next day ( fuels up on moisture?) it might tend to circulate around it bigger sibling bringing us a double whammy for the East coast?

Edited October 1, 2015 by Gray-Wolf

[radiohead]

12Z GFS tracks it even further eastwards. Well clear of the US coast.

[mountain shadow]

Time to upgrade the GFS. ....again

[Yarmy]

GFS 12z even further east:

 

 

Humiliation beckons for the US models if this trend continues.

[Singularity]

The NHC update only has Joaquin at 125 mph sustained winds (well 'only' is relative...), which surprises me given both the satellite presentation and the observation of winds as high as 166 mph at flight level by the recon plane - typically surface winds are around 10 to 15% lower which would give peak winds of 141 to 149 mph.

 

I guess they must have considered those readings to be rain contaminated.

[Singularity]

Check out the latest SHIPS shear forecast:

TIME (HR)            0       6  12    18   24   36   48   60   72
SHEAR (KT)         15   12   9     4     5     8     16   21   28
700-500 MB RH   61   64   65   66   66   63   54   46   57

 

That's some seriously low shear for a time 18-24 hours and still low at 36 hours from now.

In fact it would only start to cause the 'cane much trouble after 60 hours, though the air does start to become a bit dry from around 48 hours which may itself cause some issues with the 'cane's structure. For some reason I can't stop this text being Italic!

[Yarmy]

UKMO too:

 

 

 

Adios, Joaquin.

[Daniel*]

I would delay the raised glasses out of interest I think it would be quite interesting if it did make landfall that may be horrible of me but I get a thrill seeing forces of nature v man.

[summer blizzard]

Everything will ( hopefully?) appear clearer as the sun comes up there tomorrow?

 

I just wonder if the old storm, out to its east, will play any part should Joaquin head for the East coast? If it reforms over the next day ( fuels up on moisture?) it might tend to circulate around it bigger sibling bringing us a double whammy for the East coast?

 

Ida's remains get caught by another trough to the north.

[summer blizzard]

Look at the outflow on this thing.. incredible.

 

[mountain shadow]

I would delay the raised glasses out of interest I think it would be quite interesting if it did make landfall that may be horrible of me but I get a thrill seeing forces of nature v man.

Nah Daniel, all the main models in line now with the rock solid ECM, this Cane' is a fish.

[Thunder Snow]

Cat 4 now according to nhc

[Nouska]

Nah Daniel, all the main models in line now with the rock solid ECM, this Cane' is a fish.

 

You might want to amend that statement since this cat 4 major is currently causing major flood and wind damage on populated islands in the Bahamas.

[Thunder Snow]

I see the daily star and express have it hitting the UK loo

[Liam J]

Now a CAT 4 with pressure still falling, currently 936mb with 130mph sustained winds.

 

[mountain shadow]

You might want to amend that statement since this cat 4 major is currently causing major flood and wind damage on populated islands in the Bahamas.

Why? It's perfectly clear that a hurricane called a fish is one which does not make a continental landfall.