central pacific Tropical Storm Niala

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical Depression 06C has formed well southeast of Hawaii. It is the eleventh tropical cyclone to exist in this basin this year, which ties a record set in 1992 and 1994. If the system becomes a tropical storm it will again shatter the named storm record to form in this basin, being the 7th, the previous record was 4 in 1984.

06C itself is being affected by moderate northwesterly shear. This is expected to continue for the next couple days and then increase further. Therefore, modest intensification is forecast followed by weakening beyond 48hrs. 06C is expected to peak at 40kts.

The system is expected to head northwestwards initially then to the west as it becomes weaker and more influenced by the low level easterly flow.

[Vorticity0123]

Tropical Depression 06C has formed well southeast of Hawaii. It is the eleventh tropical cyclone to exist in this basin this year, which ties a record set in 1992 and 1994. If the system becomes a tropical storm it will again shatter the named storm record to form in this basin, being the 7th, the previous record was 4 in 1984.

06C itself is being affected by moderate northwesterly shear. This is expected to continue for the next couple days and then increase further. Therefore, modest intensification is forecast followed by weakening beyond 48hrs. 06C is expected to peak at 40kts.

 

And 06C has become a tropical storm! That is indeed an extraordinary event, beating the record of named storms with 3 storms extra. A few weeks ago, Phil Klotzbach wrote a very interesting article about the extreme activity in the Central Pacific: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/PhilKlotzbach/comment.html?entrynum=7.

 

Meanwhile Niala appears to be well on its way to become an overachiever, as an eye is already visible in satellite imagery:

 

Visible satellite image of TC Niala. Courtesy: NOAA.

 

It will be very interesting to see how far Niala can make it before shear kicks in. If it would become a hurricane, would it then beat any records for most hurricanes in the basin?

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06C/06C_floater.html

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/

[Somerset Squall]

Niala has become stronger than expected as you say Vorticity, with winds at 50kts currently. This strengthening is despite moderate to strong southwesterly shear which is affecting Niala. Niala could intensify a little more but shear is set to rise still further in the coming days which should induce a weakening trend.

[Somerset Squall]

Niala's winds are now at 55kts.

[Somerset Squall]

Niala has been suffering from shear over the last 36hrs, and has weakened to 30kts, tropical depression status. The depression is expected to become a remnant low soon as it drifts west-southwestwards in the low level flow. Interestingly, there is some chance of regeneration down the line as in several days time, the reduction in latitude will bring Niala or it's remnants into reduced shear and warmer water.