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HO-PI Winter Index 2015/16


Paul

HO-PI - September Poll  

192 members have voted

  1. 1. How do you feel the upcoming winter is going to pan out?

    • 100% confidence of a cold winter
      12
    • 90% confidence of a cold winter
      4
    • 80% confidence of a cold winter
      15
    • 70% confidence of a cold winter
      31
    • 60% confidence of a cold winter
      41
    • 50/50 cold or mild.
      42
    • 60% confidence of a mild winter
      15
    • 70% confidence of a mild winter
      18
    • 80% confidence of a mild winter
      10
    • 90% confidence of a mild winter
      2
    • 100% confidence of a mild winter
      2


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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I disagree with our average winter being mild typically it's average to slightly below average?

 

I'd say by definition the average winter is..... average

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

I'd say by definition the average winter is..... average

 

I tried to explain this before but some people don't seem to grasp that by definition a mild winter is not an average winter and neither is a cold one.   :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy Winters, Hot and Sunny Summers - Never Mild!
  • Location: NorthWest Central London, United Kingdom

Solar sunpots have been on the rise recently and today are up to 145 from an average around 60 for the last 2 months. We are running very close to solar cycle 12 and that had one last hoorah before entering solar minimum. Could this peak be just at the wrong time as we enter our winter??!! Hope not!

I'm assumming that the last solar push in Solar Cycle 12 occured just before the cold winter of 1885/1886 (In 1885)...which, incidentally, also had an El-nino.

All very interesting, so we shall see... :whistling:

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Posted
  • Location: London
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny weather regardless of the season, thunder storms, frost, snow
  • Location: London

I tried to explain this before but some people don't seem to grasp that by definition a mild winter is not an average winter and neither is a cold one.   :doh:

 

Exactly, many people struggle with the concept of average for some reason and that is before we get into mean, median and mode!

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Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL

 

 

In the meantime we'll also get a general winter discussion thread opened at the start of October :)

Then you know it's time to begin Christmas shopping..

:oops:  I'll get my coat 

Edited by Dorsetbred
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

I read a stat yesterday that something like 30% of people have already started!

 

I've already eaten a small selection box. :D

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Posted
  • Location: West Belgium
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: West Belgium

50/50 no idea. Maybe just normal, with a lot of snow.

 

but i have a feeling that the winter will start early this year.

Edited by Vahnstad
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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

50/50 no idea. 

 

 

In deed 'confident' and the British weather are surely are mutually exclusive until after the event ?

Edited by stewfox
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