HO-PI Winter Index 2015/16

[Yarmy]

Went 60% for mild. It's naive to extrapolate current conditions, but I can see heights over Europe being hard to shift (though not necessarily resulting in the dreaded B word).  

[Allseasons-Si]

I am keeping a level head on and go for a 50/50 at this stage,anything more than that would be a bonus

 

good thread Paul by the way

[cheese]

Surely when talking about cold and mild we are meaning relative to average, not in absolute terms.

So I'm going for 50/50 as it can go either way.

Though, funnily enough, the Jamstec long range model is going for a colder than average winter across N/W Europe with the cold anomaly centred on the British Isles.

Edited September 21, 2015 by cheese

[Wynn D Woo]

I have gone for 70% milder.

 

In the UK if there are 9 out of 10 factors pointing to a colder winter, that pesky 1 out of 10 milder will still win out!

 

I think low levels could just get a lot of rain, could be special if you are at height though with the cooler Atlantic.

[Gavin Hannah]

Surely when talking about cold and mild we are meaning relative to average, not in absolute terms.

So I'm going for 50/50 as it can go either way.

Though, funnily enough, the Jamstec long range model is going for a colder than average winter across N/W Europe with the cold anomaly centred on the British Isles.

 

 

I hope you saved a screenshot just in case it turns out to mild slush lol.

 

I've hit 100% Colder. Just because I'm an optimist. 

Edited September 21, 2015 by IBringTheHammer

[Blessed Weather]

Good fun Paul. Could I vote on a North/South split please?   

I think we’re starting to see subtle changes to the UK climate as a result of global climate change. Is the cold pool in the Atlantic an early example of factors that will impact us? Is the jet moving south and more prone to a meridional pattern?

Too soon to be certain but are we seeing signs, with persistent troughs and more frequent PM incursions effecting the UK and giving plenty of snow on the Scottish mountains, whilst summers become cooler and more unsettled and thus favourable to Scotland retaining more snow patches through the summer?

Are the last 12 months indicative of things to come? UK temp anomaly:

Milder winters: 2014/15:  Nov +1.4C, Dec +0.5C, Jan +0.1C, Feb -0.1C, Mar +0.1C.

Cooler summers: 2015:  May -0.8C, June -0.4C, July -0.7C Aug -0.2C.

Happily, there will always be variance from month to month and year to year, so we can never write off a damn good Beast from the East or Polar Low bringing snowmageddon!!

Oh good!! Forget what I said in the first part of my post. My last sentence has convinced me we’re due a good ‘un. I’m going for 60% likely colder!   

[Midlands Ice Age]

Still too early for me...

 

It really should be an Atlantic low fest - in which case on the whole will be  mild.

 

OR      a big northerly following on from a hurricane type low -  then  followed by a Scandy HP.                Or hang it - I've just persuaded myself thinking about it!  :nonono:

 

Yes folks its 80% for much colder!!!

 

MIA

:D

 

.

Edited September 21, 2015 by Midlands Ice Age

[MP-R]

Just as a side note, I don't think last winter can be counted as a mild one considering it only came out +0.17C above average. It probably would have been milder had there not been colder waters in our latitudes to bring us chillier Atlantic weather. 

 

In terms of predictions, far too early for me personally - I'll revise come November. I don't think much weight can be given to the September + winter prediction but I have noticed a higher tendency for stormy/wet Novembers a la 2009 or 2000 to be followed by winters with better chances of snow/cold.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'll say one thing, longer range modelling seems far more promising for potential cold (thus far) than it did last year. The long range models hit the nail on the head for last year. I remember being at a loss to account for the differences between the much talked about OPI figure and models such as ECMWF seasonal and Glosea etc. I've not seen any output but merely heard suggestions that Eurosip is much more keen on N Atlantic blocking this year along with the stunning Glosea output...

 

 

 

Pertinent to note that this isn't just one model run, it's an ensemble mean.

 

Also notice how much of the USA and Canada is warmer than average (particularly up the western side I would imagine?...typical el nino pattern there?

 

Edited September 21, 2015 by CreweCold

[Yarmy]

I'll say one thing, longer range modelling seems far more promising for potential cold (thus far) than it did last year. The long range models hit the nail on the head for last year. I remember being at a loss to account for the differences between the much talked about OPI figure and models such as ECMWF seasonal and Glosea etc. I've not seen any output but merely heard suggestions that Eurosip is much more keen on N Atlantic blocking this year along with the stunning Glosea output...

 

 

 

The Snow Advance Index failed miserably last year too, as I recall. It was essentially it and the OPI versus all the long rangers. 

[TheMoonman]

I've gone for 70% milder in an attempt at some kind of reverse psychology on Mother Nature.

[Methuselah]

Never works for Ian Brown!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Never works for Ian Brown!

 

Good old Terry Michael Woods

[cheese]

I hope you saved a screenshot just in case it turns out to mild slush lol.

 

I've hit 100% Colder. Just because I'm an optimist. 

[Yarmy]

 

Only on here would people would look at that forecast and say "Wow, look how cold the UK's going to be!" 

[Cheshire Freeze]

 

Staggering consistency with the Glosea temperature output there. The anomalies across the US are almost identical.

 

Edited September 21, 2015 by CreweCold

[cheese]

Yup, those were my thoughts as well. Good to see some degree of agreement this far out.

[Mr.Plow]

60% Cold.

 

Pure hope here (Please don't let this winter be as boring as last year)

 

Hoping for cold snaps/spells and milder spells between. (Torn between my fondness of low heating bills and love of snow - and anticipation of snow.)

[Methuselah]

60% Cold.

 

Pure hope here (Please don't let this winter be as boring as last year)

 

Hoping for cold snaps/spells and milder spells between. (Torn between my fondness of low heating bills and love of snow - and anticipation of snow.)

Aye, after only one day of snow in 2 years, 8 days, in a single year, would be marvellous!

[cyclonic happiness]

Aye, after only one day of snow in 2 years, 8 days, in a single year, would be marvellous!

I doubt any year could be as bad as last?

[DOdo]

I have gone for 100% cold, cold atlantic, and El Nino

[karlos1983]

 

This may be a stupid question. But how on earth does the majority of the United states and north Mexico, the UK and pretty much all of North West Europe manage to be below or well below average in terms of temperatures, when everywhere around the said locations is show positive values? more especially areas north/North West/North East of the mentioned? where is the cold coming from?

 

Presumably it is just because it's a long range average? 

 

Then again, I guess Canada, and north of us as well as Russia, warmer overall is still Cold in winter. I'll have another cup of coffee before I post in the morning next time it think 

Edited September 22, 2015 by karlos1983

[cheeky_monkey]

This may be a stupid question. But how on earth does the majority of the United states and north Mexico, the UK and pretty much all of North West Europe manage to be below or well below average in terms of temperatures, when everywhere around the said locations is show positive values? more especially areas north/North West/North East of the mentioned? where is the cold coming from?

 

Presumably it is just because it's a long range average? 

 

Then again, I guess Canada, and north of us as well as Russia, warmer overall is still Cold in winter. I'll have another cup of coffee before I post in the morning next time it think 

The North American temperature is pretty much the standard deviation for an el nino set up ...cooler and wetter southern half Warmer and drier Northern half..the signal for Europe is interesting as it potrays a high pressure signal for the Greenland Iceland area swinging the jet south through Europe and then north through Russia hence the red colour in that area.

[Gavin Hannah]

The colour profiles are very misleading if you don't look at the scale. The warmer areas are roughly only 1 - 1.5C above normal, yet the dark  red patches do give the impression of 'Severe warmth' lol.

[Costa Del Fal]

The colour profiles are very misleading if you don't look at the scale. The warmer areas are roughly only 1 - 1.5C above normal, yet the dark  red patches do give the impression of 'Severe warmth' lol.

But the colder anomalies only go upto -1.5c so the scale is equal either way. At this level of detail, block colours are better than a graded colour scale imo. Makes it easier to quickly identify areas most likely to be colder and warmer than normal and analyse/visualise what the pressure patterns may be like.