Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015-2016: The Refreeze.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Nice to see some of that cold air flooding south out of the 80N region which of course leaves a 10c+ abnormality up there,The temps will drop back shortly and should help ice volume growth when it does and complete the 100% extent on the western side of that area .In recent years temps have remained stubbornly above average up there during the winter months , in fact in the last 10/15 yrs the +ve  temp abnormalities (80N) have shown more consistency (ie regularly occurring)  then the end of melt season -ve extent abnormalities.

 

The temps at 2000ft (925hpa) although interesting don't show much re what going on at 2m or at 6 feet

 

If (and its a big if) the current trend of ice growth continues outside of 80N we could be back to 2000s averages by month end (supporting graph attached)

 

Its pleasing to see a lot of open water in 2007 at this time of year is already freezing over (supporting images attached)

 

Looking at the same graph today, if we keep following the trend, we'll be lowest on record by mid-November.

 

Temperatures at 925hPa do a much better job at representing the Arctic temperatures as a whole than looking at a small patch near Greenland, IMO.

[stewfox]

End of October all appears to be well nothing of note to report.

 

I have added some potential variations

Edited November 1, 2015 by stewfox

[Interitus]

 

I have added some potential variations

 

Wishful thinking!

[stewfox]

Wishful thinking!

 

For the period since the 'forecast' was made it seems to be going fairly well 

 

NSIDC October update recently out, interesting comments around better mapping techniques re thickness

 

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Edited November 8, 2015 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Big slowdown in the refreeze rate, dropping from 8th lowest to 4th lowest with the ADS extent over the last week. If we continue at the growth rate we've seen over the last 7 days, we'll be lowest on record before December.

[stewfox]

Big slowdown in the refreeze rate, dropping from 8th lowest to 4th lowest with the ADS extent over the last week. If we continue at the growth rate we've seen over the last 7 days, we'll be lowest on record before December.

 

IJIS is responding, patience is the key

 

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

[knocker]

PIOMAS December 2015

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/12/piomas-december-2015.html

[Interitus]

On 11/7/2015 at 2:29 PM, stewfox said:

 

For the period since the 'forecast' was made it seems to be going fairly well 

How about now?

Oh dear, same old, same old.

[knocker]

AGU 2015: Scientists offer latest update on worsening state of Arctic

Scientists at this year’s American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco, the largest coming together of earth and space scientists in the world, have issued their latest health-check for the Arctic.

Compiled by more than 70 authors in 11 countries, the annual Arctic Report Card put together by the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is considered the most comprehensive overview of the state of the polar north.

This year’s instalment tells the familiar story of an Arctic in serious decline. Temperatures are rising and ice is retreating, with knock-on effects for Arctic ecosystems and wildlife.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-temperature-highest-on-record-19820?utm_content=buffer8e524&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[knocker]

The latest from Neven

Winter solstice

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2015/12/winter-solstice.html

[stewfox]

A large 'warm up' year end in high Arctic

Lets hope all that cold air goes into the model discussion thread.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

While we've all been busy during the festive period, CT, ADS and NSIDC daily values have dropped to 2nd lowest on record for the time of year.

Edited December 30, 2015 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

CT and ADS haven't updated yet this year, but NSIDC has and it's now lowest on record and the only year to be below 13 million km2 at this date according to the daily data.

[stewfox]

7 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

CT and ADS haven't updated yet this year, but NSIDC has and it's now lowest on record and the only year to be below 13 million km2 at this date according to the daily data.

Have the two sites below updated ? cant find 2016 link

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

On 1/5/2016 at 10:41 PM, stewfox said:

Have the two sites below updated ? cant find 2016 link

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-extent.html?N

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

 

Don't think they've updated yet, though the ADS satellite imagery is fully up to date. NSIDC is stuck on the 7th too.

CT has updated to the 8th, and every day so far this year has been the lowest recorded. As an example of the volatility in Antarctic sea ice, 2016 is currently almost 2 million km2 below this time last year.

[stewfox]

On 1/11/2016 at 2:27 PM, BornFromTheVoid said:

As an example of the volatility in Antarctic sea ice, 2016 is currently almost 2 million km2 below this time last year.

Which supports 'weather' unless some folk put that down to global warming.

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Which supports 'weather' unless some folk put that down to global warming.

Of course it's Global warming.

A really poor refreeze this year and I only hope it's offset by an equally bad melt season.

Edited January 15, 2016 by The PIT

[oldsnowywizard]

Nothing for a while on here.. i think that having the cold bottled up in the arctic was a good start to winter... i guess we shall see what happens come april when the rollercoaster starts to go downhill...

[Relativistic]

On 15/01/2016 at 8:14 PM, The PIT said:

Of course it's Global warming.

A really poor refreeze this year and I only hope it's offset by an equally bad melt season.

Or perhaps we are seeing the effects of a super Nino on the ice? Could well be messing with the weather patterns down there. It's worth noting that during this time of the 1997/98 El Nino ice extent was lower than it is currently.

I am less optimistic for the Arctic though. It's been hovering at or around the lowest on record for a long time now.

Edited January 22, 2016 by Relativistic Sting Jet

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

Or perhaps we are seeing the effects of a super Nino on the ice? Could well be messing with the weather patterns down there. It's worth noting that during this time of the 1997/98 El Nino ice extent was lower than it is currently.

I am less optimistic for the Arctic though. It's been hovering at or around the lowest on record for a long time now.

Was it?

[Relativistic]

11 hours ago, knocker said:

Was it?

I know it's off topic but the discussion was about the Antarctic. Did you even read the rest of my post?

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, Relativistic Sting Jet said:

I know it's off topic but the discussion was about the Antarctic. Did you even read the rest of my post?

My apologies. Senior moment.

Edited January 23, 2016 by knocker

[Gray-Wolf]

Sadly the 'volume' of Arctic sea ice was so much larger back in 98' and we still had paleocryistic and multiyear over 7 years in the basin back then? If you look at the NASA animation of ice loss over the years since the 80's you can see that old ice vomited out via Fram over the intervening years As such this summer will act differently to what we saw in 98' due to the predominance of FY ice?

As for Nino? Remember the 'Lag' of impacts is up to 6 months so even though we appear to be slipping from 'max' it will be early summer when the 'punch' arrives?

[knocker]

Global sea ice area record minimum?

Quote

This post is about global sea ice area, the simple addition of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice area.
As a statistic it's somewhat interesting, but it doesn't convey all that much information about the individual health of both polar regions,
let alone their sub-regions.

Despite this fact, or probably because of it, it's often being touted by climate risk deniers as proof that global warming is a scam and all is well, because Arctic sea ice loss is compensated by a growth in Antarctic sea ice. Even if this were true - it isn't, as this Skeptical Science article explains - it's like saying there is no hunger in the world because there are so many obese people.

But anyway, we're approaching that time of year when global sea ice area as calculated by and presented at Cryosphere Today is going to hit its minimum, or lowest amount of sea ice cover. And currently the number is quite low, as can be seen on this graph from Piotr Djaków's Pogoda i Klimat website:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/01/global-sea-ice-area-record-minimum.html

[jonboy]

Not yet!!