Arctic Sea Ice Discussion 2015-2016: The Refreeze.

[Gray-Wolf]

39 minutes ago, jonboy said:

Not yet!!

 

 

Indeed! But Nino years do not bode well for Antarctic ice over min /re-freeze so it will all depend on how well the Arctic fares come melt season ( currently the pole is shedding warm air onto the Siberian coasts line so things not quite 'normal ' there a.t.m.!)

[stewfox]

3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Indeed! But Nino years do not bode well for Antarctic ice over min /re-freeze so it will all depend on how well the Arctic fares come melt season ( currently the pole is shedding warm air onto the Siberian coasts line so things not quite 'normal ' there a.t.m.!)

A very sad state of affairs at both ends of the globe , the summer discussion could get lively

Edited January 26, 2016 by stewfox

[BornFromTheVoid]

Both ADS and CT show 2016 as lowest on record currently, while NSIDC is 2nd lowest.

[Gray-Wolf]

If we are following last years lead, as Antarctica  appears to be doing, then melt season may only be a few weeks away too?

[Gray-Wolf]

So back down to lowest on measure on IJIS? Looks like we stay there, if gains remain stable, up until the 27th when we cross last years as it falls away on the early melt season entrance it had?

It is entirely possible that this will be the fate of the basin this year esp. with the H.P. about to set up over the basin possibly giving us another 'crackopalypse 'end to the season ( whilst seeing Fram spring back into life?)?

[stewfox]

3 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So back down to lowest on measure on IJIS? Looks like we stay there, if gains remain stable, up until the 27th when we cross last years as it falls away on the early melt season entrance it had?

It is entirely possible that this will be the fate of the basin this year esp. with the H.P. about to set up over the basin possibly giving us another 'crackopalypse 'end to the season ( whilst seeing Fram spring back into life?)?

Would be fun if the whole of the artic ,melted out (ie around 1m left) Need to shut down that Alantic conveyor melt a lot to anwser for

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi stew!

I think ( my personal view) that losing all the ice would prove to be a major tipping point though it may take a few years for us to fully see the impacts? If the loss of ice on our side of the basin ( in the late 90's/early 90's ) is what started the ball rolling then , due to inertia, we are only just seeing the Canadian/Alaskan losses now impacting things? Maybe we are well on the way to overcoming inertia in the system and the impacts of a near ice free basin might be felt immediately?

All by the by though. I am now anticipating an very interesting summer all over the northern Hemisphere but I will be keeping an eye on Greenland/Arctic!!

[Daniel*]

On 26 January 2016 at 0:48 PM, stewfox said:

A very sad state of affairs at both ends of the globe , the summer discussion could get lively

Indeed scary in fact:

[knocker]

Absurd January Warmth in Arctic Brings Record-Low Sea Ice Extent

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/absurd-january-warmth-in-arctic-brings-recordlow-sea-ice-extent

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm starting to be a little concerned about how this melt season will play out around the Arctic ( including Greenland) as we still have the impacts of the big Nino waiting to impact across most of the melt season?

If the cold blob ( and bane of our weather issues here in the UK?) is really the result of the ice shield under Greenland's snow cap ( formed after 2012's record melt year) shedding melt waters instead of storing them in the snows then another high melt year will just add into the issue and place a perfect 'storm generator' just over the Atlantic from us?

As for the pack? well any low start point will not be good as it just leaves less ice to be melted out over the season.

[Singularity]

With another big strat warming starting to show up as we end the month, there's scope for a negative NAO/AO combination to be prominent this spring. Just how bad or not would that be for the Arctic sea ice? Thanks in advance for your response.

[knocker]

 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Not much 're-freeze' going on? 3 days of losses placing us bottom of the pile ( again)...... could we have hit max 4 days ago????

[knocker]

Not strictly about ice but.....................

Unusual cold spell in the stratosphere creates conditions for severe ozone depletion in the Arctic

Quote

[10. February 2016] 

Unusual weather development in the Arctic leads to ozone depletion. According to the researchers of the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, in the past weeks an extreme cold spell in the Arctic stratosphere has created conditions that might cause severe ozone depletion over the Arctic in March – if the next few weeks will not bring a significant warming.

http://www.awi.de/nc/en/about-us/service/press/press-release/ungewoehnliche-kaelteperiode-in-der-stratosphaere-schafft-bedingungen-fuer-starken-ozonabbau-in-der.html

Article

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/02/record-ozone-hole-may-open-over-arctic-spring

[Geordiesnow]

I don't want to ramp things up too much but the current and upcoming weather conditions for the Arctic especially the Atlantic side of the Arctic are going to be the warmest and worse conditions I have ever seen for the latter part of February and I got a feeling we could very much reached our maxiumum for the winter now and we could see some ugly extent figures(they are bad enough atm) indeed.

Just how much ice will there be left in the Kara Sea by the end of the month and just how far any retreat will be in the Barants sea? 

Meanwhile, the sea of Okhotsk is going to be continually played by the PV where it has been for most of the winter season. 

Arctic sea ice is already looking very vulnable indeed.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Geordiesnow! we have seen what 'favourable conditions' over summer can do to keep the pack from melting out now we are in such poor condition ( loss of ALL the older thicker ice since 2010) but we have not yet seen a season where we see high melt/high export?

Having little knowledge myself I have to rely on the 'numbers' , i.e. how frequently we see summer synoptics that protect sea ice against those that are bad for sea ice ( and those that are a mix!).

Since 07' even the 'mixed' seasons have proved  bad for the ice with older ,thicker ice still being lost and final extents being close to , or less than, those of the 07' 'perfect melt storm' losses? As such I have to conclude that we have two of the three 'summer synoptics' that are very bad for the ice in it's current state.

Seeing as we have seen a few summer now , back to back, that helped protect the ice over summer I have to think that we are in line for another 'average' , or 'high loss' summer some time soon?

Back in 07' a study was done to see how often we encounter a 'perfect melt storm' synoptic ( like that of 07'). It concluded that such conditions occur ever 10 to 20 years in the basin with the two before 07' having 10 year spacings. This means that 2017 is the earliest we could expect a return of such conditions. A poor ice year in 2016 may leave the pack in a very poor state to face such a melt onslaught?

With this in mind I will be keeping 'up to date with the melt season this year esp. the early part where melt pooling on the ice occurs.

Edited February 19, 2016 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

ADS extent down by almost 120,000km2 over the last 2 days. Plenty more warmth on the way for the Arctic, especially across the Atlantic side, over the next week. I wouldn't go calling an early maximum yet though. A shift in winds, even later in March, could easily stick a few short-lived 100k onto the extent and area figures.

With the record low volume growth in January and continued warmth, volume level by start of the melt season proper may be close to lowest on record.

[Singularity]

There has been this sense in recent years that the Arctic sea ice has been riding its luck, like a football team with a weak defense that  has had the fortune to come up against teams that struggle with attacking play on many occasions. Though we certainly saw what an elite attacking force could do in July last year!

I can see plenty of signs that early-mid spring this year will tend to see a surplus of high latitude blocking and cold air exports to the lower latitudes, which won't help affairs. After that, we could see a critical period in which the blocking theme eases off (assuming the usual waxing and waning on a seasonal scale), and the extent of that makes a big difference in terms of how the Arctic fares in the run-up to what may be a very important summer season indeed.

Beyond the first half of March this is really just speculation, mind.

[knocker]

Some more observations from Eli.

http://rabett.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/eli-would-like-some-ice-with-that.html

[Gray-Wolf]

13 hours ago, Singularity said:

There has been this sense in recent years that the Arctic sea ice has been riding its luck, like a football team with a weak defense that  has had the fortune to come up against teams that struggle with attacking play on many occasions. Though we certainly saw what an elite attacking force could do in July last year!

I can see plenty of signs that early-mid spring this year will tend to see a surplus of high latitude blocking and cold air exports to the lower latitudes, which won't help affairs. After that, we could see a critical period in which the blocking theme eases off (assuming the usual waxing and waning on a seasonal scale), and the extent of that makes a big difference in terms of how the Arctic fares in the run-up to what may be a very important summer season indeed.

Beyond the first half of March this is really just speculation, mind.

 

I'd have to agree that 'weather' has preserved and protected the pack this past few years? I'd love to know how far along the sliding scale, of good to bad, just how 'good' these past few years have been for ice retention ( could we dare expect it to behave even better??)?

Have we now spent the rebound from 2012's record low? last summer appeared to hint at this in patches but what will happen when we bump into an 'average', or 'high' melt year forcing? We now have a very young pack so even the thick ,ridged ice, is made of high salt content,young, ice so it will melt far faster than the old,desalinated, ice. With lots of young ice around the chance of high levels of open water is also high meaning 'bottom melt' may also become an issue latter in the season as the open water heats up?

[Singularity]

I'm keeping an eye on the Kara Sea region this year, and the FRAM export - the relative inactivity of which has seemed very kind to the sea ice over the past few summers. It is intriguing that in a year kicking off with a powerful El Nino, it's the Atlantic side which is looking worse for wear.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Largest -ve anomaly on record for the Barents sea.

[Geordiesnow]

Usually I would not be concerned by the winter extent figures as that does not always going to tell the story for the melt season ahead but you have to be a little concerned by it this year, we are at record lows despite the Sea of Okhotsk having quite an high extent due to the PV just being stuck there for large parts of the winter. If that area melts out quickly like it usually does, I still fear we could see some rather ugly ice extent figures as we head into the Spring, of course the Atlantic sector could improve which could balance the extent figures but if the Atlantic side does turn colder, then we are getting to the time of year where it means the Pacific side will be likely to be milder so nearly a no win situation really. Maybe it best in a strange sort of way to start off with quite a low extent and see where it goes from there because as you can see, just because you start off with more ice does not mean you will end up with more ice come September.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

CT area now lowest on record by nearly half a million km2.
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

Barents sea has hit half a million km2 below average for the first time too.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The ice anomaly maps also highlight the marked step-change to warmer winters in the Barents Sea starting in 2005.  Vize Island (Ostrov Vize) is a particularly remarkable example, with no significant warming at the site until 2004, and then a sudden step-change from an annual mean of around -14.5C to nearer -10C.

http://en.tutiempo.net/climate/ws-200690.html

http://www.vize.climatemps.com/temperatures.php

January 2016 came in at -10.2C there, the warmest January on record, 17.2C above the long-term normal.  Anomalies like that will have been contributing to the low sea ice extent in the Barents Sea.

It looks like cooling off in the Barents/Kara Sea area in about a week's time, so I expect the sea ice growth to resume by the time we get into March, but by then we will have a lot of catching up to do, just to get close to last year's record low maximum.

Edited February 24, 2016 by Thundery wintry showers