Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Atlantic Storms Autumn 2015


Allseasons-Si

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the small windy spell that looks to effect Cornwall/Devon tonight along the southern areas....50+mph gusts maybe reaching near 60mph unexposed areas, it wasn't even mentioned on bbc

Trees are still in leaf so I'm surprised there wasn't a mention at least as that's strong enough to bring branches down when in leaf

Looking at XCweather this suggests they haven't turned off.

Supposed to be breezy here but the average is 0.2mph

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

It's been fairly windy here this morning, which I'm not sure was forecast. Proper late autumn day out there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

What we have currently would be my ideal pattern for the rest of the autumn/winter season - a mix between stormy skies, breezy weather and mild Atlantic air and a few days of sunny, very mild high pressure.

 

Speaking in terms of today however, it is pretty much what I just described. Fairly breezy, but nothing major with stormy skies and the odd spot of rain. The sun is coming out now too.

 

Mine would be 1100mb of surface pressure from scandi all the way to Siberia and 945 over Iberia Italy constantly for the whole of Autumn and winter with the 492 line smashing Westward through Ireland and 100mph plus surface winds.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Hope this bit comes true :)

 

 

 

Most of the global drivers discussed above tend to increase the chances of westerly weather patterns during our November to January outlook period. Our numerical prediction model, being sensitive to these drivers, also predicts a higher-than-normal chance of westerly conditions. This results in an outlook for an increased chance of milder- and wetter-than-usual conditions, and a decreased chance of colder and drier conditions, for the UK. Our outlook also indicates an increase in the risk of windy or even stormy weather.

http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/10/29/what-are-the-prospects-for-the-weather-in-the-coming-winter/

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

We have to look all the way out to 276hrs on the 12z GFS for any interest from the Atlantic!! 

 

post-9615-0-08562200-1446225321_thumb.pn 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Some interest on the GFS this morning for the end of this week and into next week, some lively looking charts. ECM not so keen though... 

 

post-9615-0-80094600-1446467245_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-05607700-1446467259_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-49623800-1446467251_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-17454300-1446467228_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-31785200-1446467234_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-30309300-1446467239_thumb.pn

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Talking to yourself Liam? tsk tsk   :-))

 

BFTP

Yup, seems that way lol... Until you spoke anyway  :D

 

Been all too quiet so far this autumn... Is that about to change?  :)

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

it's a lengthy spell of nothingness to say the least ..

Indeed!! Though I have a feeling we won't have to wait all that much longer for something more interesting/exciting... Mid November onwards perhaps or a tad sooner? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Yes, Friday afternoon & evening could be very windy for the N/NW of the UK.

 

NetWx-MR wind gust charts.

 

post-9615-0-51738400-1446496630_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-39689600-1446496635_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-00218000-1446496641_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-57786900-1446496647_thumb.pn

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Worth a mention - Quite a storm only 5 days out on tonight's GFS 18z for overnight into Sunday, gusts over 85mph across the far north of Ireland into SW Scotland and through the central belt. GFS currently standing alone on this... 

 

post-9615-0-30828500-1446504677_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-72639800-1446504684_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-10269800-1446504695_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-88519200-1446504702_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-69264500-1446504714_thumb.pn

 

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

This mornings GFS runs still show strong winds for the Western Isles on Friday afternoon and through the evening. Mean wind speeds between 40 to 50 mph with top gusts ranging from 55 to 65 mph with the possibility of reaching 70 mph. Interestingly the ECM shows something less severe so there's a chance the GFS could downgrade however its the first time the ECM has actually shown windy weather for Friday so it may be playing catch up to the GFS.

 

post-6686-0-21877700-1446539119_thumb.pn post-6686-0-62810300-1446539119_thumb.pn

 

Saturday night is the next one to watch out for as the GFS shows 60 mph mean speeds for Northern Ireland and later on 50 mph wind speeds for central Scotland. GFS shows gusts ranging from 60 to 80 mph. The ECM agrees on a low pressure passing by but again shows something weaker.

 

post-6686-0-69152500-1446539517_thumb.pn  post-6686-0-79561800-1446539611_thumb.pn post-6686-0-34749900-1446539612_thumb.pn

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

The 6z GFS has binned the storm for Saturday evening/night, probably to be expected given that the other models weren't interested.

 

post-9615-0-97165100-1446548681_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-93102900-1446548687_thumb.pn

 

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Tiree
  • Location: Tiree

Yeah I noticed that. Also seem to have drawn back a little on Friday night. Monday night is now teasing us up here for another storm but still a long way off as yet and as we can see things are changing rapidly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

The 6z GFS has binned the storm for Saturday evening/night, probably to be expected given that the other models weren't interested.

 

attachicon.gifgfs42.pngattachicon.gifgfs43.png

 

I wouldn't be surprised if it re-appeared again on the 12Z GFS. The 06Z op run was almost an outlier compared to the 06Z GEFS members, many of which (including the control) show a low crossing Scotland Saturday/Sunday.

Edited by radiohead
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Not too suprising given the 06Z GEFS, but the low is back again on the 12Z GFS op run. It doesn't peak until it's off the northeast coast of Scotland but the GFS is still showing 130+ km/h gusts.

 

102-515UK_jrs3.GIF

108-289UK_oua5.GIF

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

I think they are the 10m mean speeds? Not 100% sure though, I'm just waiting for the 12z to update on NetWx so I can see the wind speeds & gust charts.

 

UKMO nothing like as severe...

 

post-9615-0-60657800-1446569520_thumb.gipost-9615-0-54229400-1446568831_thumb.gi

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

I think they are the 10m mean speeds? Not 100% sure though, I'm just waiting for the 12z to update on NetWx so I can see the wind speeds & gust charts.

 

UKMO nothing like as severe...

 

attachicon.gifukmo3.gifattachicon.gifukmo1.gif

Rafale de vent are 10m gusts. Moyen are the mean winds.

 

Yes, UKMO quite different. ECM will be interesting later. Tricky one for the models it seems.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

The GFS has moved Fridays storm further West. It has good support from the ensembles for doing this as many place it in the same place. However most of the other 12z runs this afternoon (UKMO, GEM and JMA) Have it slightly further East.

 

Mean speeds across the Western Isles of Friday afternoon according to the GFS will be around 30 to 40 mph with gusts ranging from 55 to 65 mph.

 

post-6686-0-39701200-1446570452_thumb.pn post-6686-0-85852200-1446570452_thumb.pn

 

But it won't be until Friday night when the wind should peak. Mean speeds 45 to 55 mph for the North West of Scotland with gusts of 55 to 68 mph.

 

post-6686-0-50994100-1446570581_thumb.pn post-6686-0-04490900-1446570581_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland

ECM and GFS at 72 hours for Friday afternoon show changes still yet to come. The ECM places it closer to Scotland but less deep at 976mb while GFS 972mb. The differences can be seen below. Out if the 2 models the UKMO sides with ECM.

 

post-6686-0-05119400-1446581981_thumb.pn

 

Here are the 6pm Saturday wind charts from the ECM and GFS,

 

post-6686-0-94545200-1446582363_thumb.pn

 

Once again there's a noticeable difference. The GFS takes it further North and the low goes much deeper as well bringing stronger winds with it. The ECM takes a more Southerly route while still bringing strong winds.

Edited by Zenarcher
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...