just for fun... when will be the next 'proper' above average month

[snowgirl30]

Id say December

[Nouska]

December !!!!

 

Sod's Law would say that is an obvious choice, but ....

 

 

Seeing a cooling trend for all steps on MO output is unusual, could we be waiting a while to see the next above month?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

[reef]

Sod's Law would say that is an obvious choice, but ....

 

 

Seeing a cooling trend for all steps on MO output is unusual, could we be waiting a while to see the next above month?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Thats a very interesting pattern for winter there. The combination of a cold northern Pacific, warm North USA and Canada and cool western Europe is pretty much the opposite of the last two years. It looks very promising for something different to 2013/14 and 2014/15.

[Midlands Ice Age]

Have noticed that the CET seems to spend quite long periods in the same pattern for about 13 months, so I will go for  June 2016!!

 

MIA

[J10]

Sod's Law would say that is an obvious choice, but ....

 

 

Seeing a cooling trend for all steps on MO output is unusual, could we be waiting a while to see the next above month?

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

 

Wouldn't mind a cold snowy December, we are overdue one.

[Stargazer]

Let's be honest, it'll probably be January...

[Thundery wintry showers]

That anomaly map, to me, suggests a winter similar to 2008/09, with more frequent arctic northerlies and polar west to north-westerlies than usual, taking advantage of that cold anomaly in the Atlantic.

 

I predict that November will be the next month to manage it, but not by much.  December is in with a shot but mainly because the 1981-2010 average is as low as the 1961-1990 average- my hunch is that December's CET will be no higher than 5.5C, with 4.0-4.5C most likely.

Edited September 14, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[Daniel*]

I predict all winter months will be below average.

I will say November 2015 as December unravels I expect it to turn significantly cooler.

[summer blizzard]

Thats a very interesting pattern for winter there. The combination of a cold northern Pacific, warm North USA and Canada and cool western Europe is pretty much the opposite of the last two years. It looks very promising for something different to 2013/14 and 2014/15.

 

Looks like a neutral PDO. 

El Nino (US has a pretty classic Nino pattern for a -AO albeit you'd normally see a more w/e split to things).

-AO.

[IanR]

changing my mind  ,  january will still be following the trends of slightly below,  going for june 2016 now when a couple of plumes from a hotting up continent after a  mainly north westerly spring, will raise the cet above average, but only just

Edited September 21, 2015 by IanR

[Richard2901]

October a good bet because it's the first month when above average temperatures usually mean vile weather. 

 

Loads of hideous above average temperatures October's recently: 2001, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014. All revolting, dull, wet and unpleasant months. 

 

October 2007 is the only recent October that saw both above average temperatures and generally good weather.

[cheese]

October a good bet because it's the first month when above average temperatures usually mean vile weather. 

 

Loads of hideous above average temperatures October's recently: 2001, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014. All revolting, dull, wet and unpleasant months. 

 

October 2007 is the only recent October that saw both above average temperatures and generally good weather.

If we believe your posts, every single month since 2007 has been vile and unpleasant in Aberdeen.

[IanR]

October a good bet because it's the first month when above average temperatures usually mean vile weather. 

 

Loads of hideous above average temperatures October's recently: 2001, 2005, 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2014. All revolting, dull, wet and unpleasant months. 

 

October 2007 is the only recent October that saw both above average temperatures and generally good weather.

  must be due a below average october then , to carry on the trend since may

[Scorcher]

As long as the above average N Atlantic SSTs persist it will be difficult to achieve a well above average CET with our prevailing Westerlies

 

I don't think this is necessarily the case- a lot of people said it going into the summer of 2013 with the SSTs all around our shores well below average. If you get a month (or season-I'm thinking autumn 2011 here) with persistent southerlies the SSTs in the North Atlantic don't matter that much.

[Snowyowl9]

April probably.

[BlueHedgehog074]

In a way, perhaps wouldn't too surprised if the next few months, especially the Winter period, carries on with a similar theme that Summer had - fairly frequent North-Westerly winds with a fair amount of chilly weather at times.

However, if I had to go for a above average month, have a feeling it will be November.

[Timmytour]

I think that. despite a potentially warm beginning, October will end up enough below average to warrant the description "chilly"

However, i think both November and December will be considerably above average, with Christmas being mild and foggy

[IanR]

 those who guessed october look like being wrong, I also doubt any months left in 2015 will be above average, april 2015 was the last , could it be a 12 month rolling period before it happens again,  how remarkable would that actually be 

Edited October 9, 2015 by IanR

[Relativistic]

 those who guessed october look like being wrong, I also doubt any months left in 2015 will be above average, april 2015 was the last , could it be a 12 month rolling period before it happens again,  how remarkable would that actually be 

 

I guessed October only so that it wouldn't be. To make any conclusions now though is extremely premature.

[IanR]

I guessed October only so that it wouldn't be. To make any conclusions now though is extremely premature.

hence the just for fun bit

[DOdo]

so Far in Dublin temperature is 0.7 degrees above normal, Continental infleunce?

[Weather-history]

Christmas being mild and foggy

Mild and foggy? Fog has never felt mild around here.

Edited October 12, 2015 by Weather-history

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

hopefully next May until September will all be above average especially mid july where it will 10 degrees above average

[Hocus Pocus]

I'll go for January after a below average December and average November.

hopefully next May until September will all be above average especially mid july where it will 10 degrees above average

Lol, yes when it matters the most as its wasted during the winter months.

[IanR]

looks like both stats could be above, the thread might not last as long as I thought