Storm & Convective Discussion - 1 September 2015 onwards

[Mapantz]

There's less activity than I thought there would be. I'm also in the empty circle of death, as the showers run along and move up to the IoW and East. 

[William Grimsley]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

There's less activity than I thought there would be. I'm also in the empty circle of death, as the showers run along and move up to the IoW and East. 

Same here, Mapantz. Showers keep dying, god I hate Dartmoor for this reason.

[Stormyking]

Im quite interested into Tonight, too me it looks as though showers will start to become alot more organised, think ill be up most of the night! -2 lifted touching the South of the island with better wind sheer, anwhere along the South and South West Coast could well be in the risk zone!

 

Ive dfinatly missed the convective weather for sure!

[Thunderbolt_]

13 minutes ago, Stormyking said:

Im quite interested into Tonight, too me it looks as though showers will start to become alot more organised, think ill be up most of the night! -2 lifted touching the South of the island with better wind sheer, anwhere along the South and South West Coast could well be in the risk zone!

 

Ive dfinatly missed the convective weather for sure!

That's one of the many reasons why I hate winter! Thunder in my area is pretty much confined to July and August, with maybe the odd smaller storm then popping up in the autumn. Once August is done then I know that I'm pretty much waiting 10 or so months for any meaningful thunder, with the exception of small surprises like 25 October 2013, 9 November 2013 and 5 December 2014.

Roll on April, when the convective season really starts to kick off.

[weather09]

On 03/01/2016 at 11:20 AM, Supacell said:

There is the risk of further thundery episodes throughout the latter part of this week too.

Yes,  looks like a continued low risk this evening/tomorrow behind occlusion- though mainly for southern coastal areas of England/Wales and perhaps more scattered than today, with cold mid-level air residing over region.  Resulting steep low-mid level lapse rates atop mild waters and moisture (dewpoints 7-8C) advecting over far south with light onshore breeze generates few 100j/kg CAPE (per 06z GFS).  Also, light winds throughout the profile, steep lapse rates, low cloud base, and vorticity advection close to low centre support funnel development.

Transient height rises and warmer air aloft moves over Weds/Thurs, before risk low-end risk returns for weekend.

Edited January 4, 2016 by weather09

[MP-R]

Some impressive cloudscapes around today and have already had two thundery downpours of summer-type rain intensity. This has lead to a lot of surface water a very large puddles. Can't remember the last day with skies like this; I think it was early October! Given the parameters though, I would have expected thundery activity to be a little more widespread today.

[William Grimsley]

I just wish April 2012 would happen again, that was the best month for showers that I've ever witnessed...

[MP-R]

13 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I just wish April 2012 would happen again, that was the best month for showers that I've ever witnessed...

Certainly wouldn't mind 10th-12th, 18th-22nd & 25th April 2012 again, but the month as a whole I would rather not. Too cold and dull for my liking.

[Stormyking]

1 hour ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

That's one of the many reasons why I hate winter! Thunder in my area is pretty much confined to July and August, with maybe the odd smaller storm then popping up in the autumn. Once August is done then I know that I'm pretty much waiting 10 or so months for any meaningful thunder, with the exception of small surprises like 25 October 2013, 9 November 2013 and 5 December 2014.

Roll on April, when the convective season really starts to kick off.

Living on the coast/Isle of Wight the convective weather normally carries on through due to the warmer seas, many times ive seen ou best Surface based type storms in October, November, December and even January. But of coarse if you live inland it is understandable, im an all rounder when it comes to extreme Weather, but for me Thunderstorms will edge over everything. 

 

This year has been the first Autumn/Early Winter ive ever known for there not to be some sort of Thundery activity from the Channel, from October through to 3 days ago where we actually managed a small storm on the West coast of the Island on NYE

Only a month and a half or 2 months away until the inland stuff starts to becomes better, which we will sure be chasing haha

[Mapantz]

Some nice passing structures, but apart from a shower early this morning, nowt 'ere.

[Spikecollie]

Some lovely cloudscapes from the UK to France. The best, though, were the TCUs into our region (Limousin). Stunning tops which I would like to fly around forever, but crikey they're bloomin' lumpy inside! I landed through them into torrential rain. The A20 autoroute was awash and the local smaller roads beginning to flood. More incoming me thinks.

[Supacell]

On 1/3/2016 at 11:20 AM, Supacell said:

 

Two days on and very little has happened. My apologies I did expect from the charts I was seeing that there would have been some thundery activity around our southern and western coasts. Now either I had been drinking too much Christmas sherry and was seeing things that weren't there or the charts I was looking at were still hung over from their New Year celebrations.

There is still a risk of something thundery occurring today around southern and SE coasts of England but if the last two days are anything to go by then I would not hold my breath. After a quieter day tomorrow and more dynamic rainfall into Thursday, there is further convective interest for the end of the week/weekend but it is a long way off and again my breath is not being held for this one. 

[weather09]

Good to give a heads up though, Supacell, however small the risk. Certainly outputs did/do indicate a low risk of thunder yesterday and today given steep lapse rates and marginal instability near to coastal regions, so always a chance of something popping up under such conditions.

[Thunderbolt_]

1 hour ago, Supacell said:

Two days on and very little has happened. My apologies I did expect from the charts I was seeing that there would have been some thundery activity around our southern and western coasts. Now either I had been drinking too much Christmas sherry and was seeing things that weren't there or the charts I was looking at were still hung over from their New Year celebrations.

There is still a risk of something thundery occurring today around southern and SE coasts of England but if the last two days are anything to go by then I would not hold my breath. After a quieter day tomorrow and more dynamic rainfall into Thursday, there is further convective interest for the end of the week/weekend but it is a long way off and again my breath is not being held for this one. 

It's alright, no one is having a go at you. I'd say storms are much harder to forecast in winter because they tend to be much weaker than storms in the summer, so most of them usually just stay as showers, if anything. That's exactly what we saw yesterday.

[Mapantz]

There was a fair scope for something a bit more livelier than what occurred, it surprised me to be honest. Plenty more opportunities to come though!

[Stormyking]

Great Weather day today, absolutlEy full of heavy showers, some with Hail, some beautiful cloud structures and towers too! 

[Supacell]

Thanks guys. If we see anything this week from a convective standpoint then it is a bonus considering it is January. 

[alexisj9]

Had plenty of showers here, ln fact it was more like persistent rain most of the time. Unfortunately no thunder 

 

[Daniel*]

Thunder just heard! not had a grumble in months.

[Supacell]

Sferics are being detected in the BoB and have been for much of the night. Thundery activity has already been into the SW coast as far east as Dorset. 

This brings me onto today. Numerous bands of showers are expected around an area of low pressure today, spinning up in a northeasterly direction. These will bring some heavy rainfall at times which may lead to localised flooding. CAPE values look to be around 200-400j/kg around southern and western coasts which on the face of it is not that high (but high enough for some thunderstorm activity to occur). Added to this is the component of wind shear and this aids in the development of more organised thunderstorms. Mid level lapse rates are also on the increase later on today across England and Wales. A risk of hail and gusty winds in any heavy showers or storms.

Whereas the risk of heavy rain is widespread, the risk of thunderstorms looks to be more likely along southern coasts of England, Wales and along Irish sea coasts of England, Wales and SW Scotland. However I would not be surprised if any more organised storms achieve getting quite far inland today. 

My thoughts are below. As I said this is a low risk for most, although I do think we have a better risk today than so far this week. The convective outputs do not look like the kind of thing I would expect to see in January.

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Supacell

[ThundersnowDays]

A couple of strikes near Falmouth and more on the way for Cornwall.

 

[William Grimsley]

Had a torrential downpour with hail and lightning just after 06:00 this morning and looks like more is on the way for later! Good luck everyone!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

very lively in the BOB and towards the SW hopefully the south coast get something later today

 

http://www.lightningmaps.org/realtime

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks interesting today!

[Mapantz]

I think this is the zone that will fair best..

The models had it further East last night, this morning they have moved it West. Ties in with the radar now.