Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards

[Mokidugway]

Nothing on estofex as yet ..

[Gordon Webb]

We have not had one decent thunderstorm this summer,quite surprising considering how many convective events have happened. Maybe this time??

 

people might be able to comment more if you stated your location

 

Oh and as a counterweight to those hoping for storms

 

I HOPE WE DON'T GET ANYTHING

 

lol

Edited August 21, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[MattTarrant]

We haven't had a serious thunderstorm since last summer.

sorry just getting the hang of the forum.

Edited August 21, 2015 by MattTarrant

[Supacell]

We haven't had a serious thunderstorm since last summer.

sorry just getting the hang of the forum.

 

Welcome to the forum Matt. Hopefully you will get to see something this weekend.

 

Storm forecast now from Convective weather

 

 

Full forecast here

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-08-22

 

I think it will be safe to say I am getting just a tad excited now as we are around 24 hours away. I have my storm chasing hat on for tomorrow. I know things can still change and go wrong but I will still enjoy the build up.

Edited August 21, 2015 by Supacell

[Winter Cold]

Welcome to the forum Matt. Hopefully you will get to see something this weekend.

 

Storm forecast now from Convective weather

 

largethumb.png

 

Full forecast here

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-08-22

 

I think it will be safe to say I am getting just a tad excited now as we are around 24 hours away. I have my storm chasing hat on for tomorrow. I know things can still change and go wrong but I will still enjoy the build up.

 

It looks like we could be in prime spots at the moment for our two cities doesnt it    Im ready and available to get out and get the best views if anything pops up   If you see a blue Subaru speeding about with you then thats me hehe

 

GFS 12z just this minute out so latest projections below;

 

        

[Gordon Webb]

Welcome to the forum Matt. Hopefully you will get to see something this weekend.

 

Storm forecast now from Convective weather

 

largethumb.png

 

Full forecast here

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-08-22

 

I think it will be safe to say I am getting just a tad excited now as we are around 24 hours away. I have my storm chasing hat on for tomorrow. I know things can still change and go wrong but I will still enjoy the build up.

 

if that comes off as they say storms should develop over you then go north into northern england where most seem to agree the worst of the weather will be , I for one will be willing the storms to develop over you as I don't class myself as North Midlands so hopefully will miss but I will wish good luck to those that want them and those that don't YES WE DO EXIST that we all get what we want

[Methuselah]

Welcome to the forum Matt. Hopefully you will get to see something this weekend.

 

Storm forecast now from Convective weather

 

largethumb.png

 

Full forecast here

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-08-22

 

I think it will be safe to say I am getting just a tad excited now as we are around 24 hours away. I have my storm chasing hat on for tomorrow. I know things can still change and go wrong but I will still enjoy the build up.

Is that one of the Seven Dwarves?

[sunnijim]

Welcome to the forum Matt. Hopefully you will get to see something this weekend.

 

Storm forecast now from Convective weather

 

largethumb.png

 

Full forecast here

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-08-22

 

I think it will be safe to say I am getting just a tad excited now as we are around 24 hours away. I have my storm chasing hat on for tomorrow. I know things can still change and go wrong but I will still enjoy the build up.

Most odd,the risk area the met office highlight is pretty much no risk on this chart!

[Gordon Webb]

If you don't want any thunderstorms, then I'll happily take them off your hands!

 

offer accepted , I do admit though that apart from 3rd and 5th July really haven't seen much in the way of electrical activity so do consider myself quite lucky in that regard this summer and even if tomorrow does deliver something I will still consider it a good summer from my particular point of view , I'm also quite pleased that the days are shorter as well although not sure how much impact that will have on the weather tomorrow but I hated the long days and seeing these shorten does cheer me up no end but I am drifting off topic so I will leave it there

Edited August 21, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[MattTarrant]

What does GFS mean?

[Supacell]

It looks like we could be in prime spots at the moment for our two cities doesnt it    Im ready and available to get out and get the best views if anything pops up   If you see a blue Subaru speeding about with you then thats me hehe

      

 

Yes, on current models we do both look in a good place for storms. I will keep a look out for the blue subaru chasing the tornadic supercell

[William Grimsley]

There's a pretty reasonable chance for you to see something over the next 48 hours or so

Come on AJ! We can do this! This time we are going to get a thunderstorm!

[Polar Maritime]

What does GFS mean?

 

Hover over GFS underline and all will be reviled! 

Edited August 21, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[The PIT]

No storms forecast for us tomorrow anyway. Showers on the NMM local forecast agrees bar the temperatures so nothing to get excited about. Some agreement at last at least

Edited August 21, 2015 by The PIT

[Costa Del Fal]

Similar thoughts to myself re locations of activity by Matt D on weatheronline here: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/109011-convective-chat-weekend-of-2223-aug/page__st__20

High based storms for us it seems. Similar style to 3rd July maybe? Could bring some excellent lightning displays again.

[Gordon Webb]

What does GFS mean?

 

If you ask some about it's record they'll say GONE FOR SUMMER

[ChezWeather]

Im having visions of me sitting in the East stand tomorrow afternoon at the Proact Stadium, watching the might spireites winning and then a massive storm rolls in! 

 

Dare i dream! 

 

If i recall correctly, the same thing happened back on August 25th 2012 

Edited August 21, 2015 by ChezWeather

[Gordon Webb]

Similar thoughts to myself re locations of activity by Matt D on weatheronline here: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/109011-convective-chat-weekend-of-2223-aug/page__st__20

High based storms for us it seems. Similar style to 3rd July maybe? Could bring some excellent lightning displays again.

 

bear in mind he said they might veer NW so even that crumb might disappear , it does seem that here (that been stourbridge or bedworth) or just North will be the possible breeding ground then off north to northern england with possible high based storms possibly following into the evening from the south

Im having visions of me sitting in the East stand tomorrow afternoon at the Proact Stadium, watching the might spireites winning and then a massive storm rolls in! 

 

Dare i dream! 

 

what do you think more likely chesterfield winning or the storm ?

[Nick L]

What does GFS mean?

 

The GFS is a numerical weather prediction model (NWP). It's the American model, while the ECMWF is the European model, and the UKMO is the one run by the Met Office.

[Lauren]

Welcome to the forum Matt. Hopefully you will get to see something this weekend.

 

Storm forecast now from Convective weather

 

largethumb.png

 

Full forecast here

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-08-22

 

I think it will be safe to say I am getting just a tad excited now as we are around 24 hours away. I have my storm chasing hat on for tomorrow. I know things can still change and go wrong but I will still enjoy the build up.

 

It's like the weather gods are trying to rub it in

[cheese]

Im having visions of me sitting in the East stand tomorrow afternoon at the Proact Stadium, watching the might spireites winning and then a massive storm rolls in! 

 

Dare i dream! 

 

If i recall correctly, the same thing happened back on August 25th 2012

I had a good storm on my birthday in 2013, 22 August. Will I be treated to another this year? Hopefully!

[sunnijim]

I just hope folk arn't setting themselves up for a fall again storm wise, with rants about 'let downs' and wrong forecasts to follow.

Looking through this thread some people are taking model guidance and amuteur web forecasts as a code red for storms.

The experts at the M.O only have an isolated storm 'risk' warning out for SE England so far,for the rest of the UK,zilch.

This of course can,and probably will change.Lets not get sucked along into cries of 'bust' again come Sunday afternoon.

Edited August 21, 2015 by sunnijim

[Gordon Webb]

I had a good storm on my birthday in 2013, 22 August. Will I be treated to another this year? Hopefully!

 

Ah The Big 28 hope you have a nice cake to eat

[Gordon Webb]

I just hope folk arn't setting themselves up for a fall again storm wise, with rants about 'let downs' and wrong forecasts to follow.

Looking through this thread some people are taking model guidance and amuteur web forecasts as a code red for storms.

The experts at the M.O only have an isolated storm 'risk' warning out for SE England so far,for the rest of the UK,zilch.

This of course can,and probably will change.Lets not get sucked along into cries of 'bust' again come Sunday afternoon.

 

yep just 8 days ago at this distance out it was all nailed on for the uk and nothing happened and some of this tomorrow might be undone by cloud but the cloud is forecast to break east of the pennines during tomorrow pm but the word forecast must be emphasied as nothing in weather is guaranteed especially storms and if cries of bust do come alongf it will be in the early of sunday not the mid afternoon

[Gael_Force]

Hover over GFS underline and all will be reviled! 

The poor old GFS is frequently reviled in the model thread ..... now the predictive text is getting in on the act.