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Storm & Convective Discussion - 20th August 2015 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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mhielte Enthusiast

mhielte

Posted
  • Location: Barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Barnsley
Posted

No storms forecast for us tomorrow anyway. Showers on the NMM local forecast agrees bar the temperatures so nothing to get excited about. Some agreement at last at least

Your posts highlights the uncertainty of this setup. There are forecasts that have central and northern England at the highest risk, yet other forecasts such as the Met Office's which show the risk further south and east.

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted

Welcome to the forum Matt. Hopefully you will get to see something this weekend.

 

Storm forecast now from Convective weather

 

attachicon.giflargethumb.png

 

Full forecast here

 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2015-08-22

 

I think it will be safe to say I am getting just a tad excited now as we are around 24 hours away. I have my storm chasing hat on for tomorrow. I know things can still change and go wrong but I will still enjoy the build up.

And the last time we were under the same type of warning we had golf ball nearly sized hail I am a bit excited now and more so after Nicks update! Sorry thats from my area anyway.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

A particular positive favouring this region tomorrow is the pretty much perfect upper wind direction in the evening and overnight. They will be direct southerly early in the evening then become slightly more southeasterly as the night wears in as the trough becomes negatively tilted. This direction always favours here better than other wind directions.

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

It is a looking like an exciting few days coming up. I am off all weekend and so (as usual) have everything ready to go out and chase. Tomorrow late afternoon and evening looks pretty tasty through the central slice of the country for thunderstorms.

Considering going on a chase myself tomorrow. I think Nottinghamshire up into Derbyshire or South Yorkshire looks a decent shout, what do you think bud?

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Candice Enthusiast

Candice

Posted
  • Location: The Wash - Norfolk side
  • Weather Preferences: Storms storms and more storms
  • Location: The Wash - Norfolk side
Posted

I just hope folk arn't setting themselves up for a fall again storm wise, with rants about 'let downs' and wrong forecasts to follow.

Looking through this thread some people are taking model guidance and amuteur web forecasts as a code red for storms.

The experts at the M.O only have an isolated storm 'risk' warning out for SE England so far,for the rest of the UK,zilch.

This of course can,and probably will change.Lets not get sucked along into cries of 'bust' again come Sunday afternoon.

The convective weather forecast is run by two professional meteorologists.

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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted

It looks like we could be in prime spots at the moment for our two cities doesnt it :D   Im ready and available to get out and get the best views if anything pops up :D  If you see a blue Subaru speeding about with you then thats me hehe :p

 

GFS 12z just this minute out so latest projections below;

 

 

 

  

 

I'll be in the black one... :D

 

 

Nice wind convergence showing up for tomorrow afternoon along with high dewpoints... :bomb:

 

post-2839-0-33538800-1440176925_thumb.pnpost-2839-0-29481400-1440176971_thumb.pn

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Your posts highlights the uncertainty of this setup. There are forecasts that have central and northern England at the highest risk, yet other forecasts such as the Met Office's which show the risk further south and east.

Basically I given up on whats going to happen.

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted

The convective weather forecast is run by two professional meteorologists.

 

To be fair I don't believe he was having a pop at them he was just warning against getting over excited in case things do not turn out exactly as forecast tomorrow , things can and probably will change a little bit by tomorrow which might lead to variations , he was just guarding against very high expectations which I think is very wise based on recent forecasts of this type

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kag Rookie

kag

Posted
  • Location: Dalrymple East Ayrshire, ( 6 miles SE of Ayr)
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms,cold, heatwaves.
  • Location: Dalrymple East Ayrshire, ( 6 miles SE of Ayr)
Posted

Any chance the storm risk being further NW over Ayrshire as exciting weather has been in very short supply this summer(and winter,except for prolonged thunderstorms mid December)?

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Beeb forecast playing down the storm risk big style only a maybe.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Met office on maps clearly have the best of the cells going through the West Midlands and some of N England tomorrow evening.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

One things for sure is that the Sheffield shield will be running on full power!!!!

I don't think it will even yawn to be honest.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Flooding, spiders, lightning and storms :shok: http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/34008927

I've always thought that the solar surface-temp was around 5700C?? Can that really be 5x less than that of lightning? :cc_confused:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Hirudine Community Regular

Hirudine

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
  • Location: Birmingham City Centre
Posted

Keeping my fingers crossed we get something my way tomorrow- I'm off to a club Sat night that'll be playing this;

 

 

so a thunderstorm beforehand would be awesome!

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

I've always thought that the solar surface-temp was around 5700C?? Can that really be 5x that of lightning? :cc_confused:

 

Lightning's actually hotter than the surface of the Sun.

 

And yup, you're right about the temperature.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

don't forget folks, there's the moan threads and No Storms Club thread for those who either 1) don't like storms, 2) want to have a moan if they don't get one, 3) for those who like to moan before it's even happened, and 4) for those who just like to moan about things in general

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

My predictions for the south west are if anything does develop, most models suggesting a convergence line developing just over Dartmoor and southward late tomorrow which should help thunderstorms develop and move north eastward however I feel most of the thunder may go to my north and west at this stage however the NMM still sees as has happened the last few times, me getting some action.

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

a quick hint for storm tracking tomorrow.....500hpa wind flow is a good directional marker for storm motion.....tomorrow, and overnight into sunday, the 500hpa flow starts south westerly and gradually backs south easterly during the period

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Lightning's actually hotter than the surface of the Sun.

 

And yup, you're right about the temperature.

Oops, that was the vodka speaking...Can the temperature of lightning really be 5x that of the Solar surface (5700K)?  That's 285,000K?

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Nick L Maestro

Nick L

Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
Posted

Oops, that was the vodka speaking...Can the temperature of lightning really be 5x that of the Solar surface (5700K)?  That's 285,000K?

 

285,000K? I think your calcs are a bit off there!

 

Lightning is about 30,000K :)

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