Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

What has happened to cloudless days?


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester

It's down to our sunspot activity being low, and with the next 3 solar cycles being weaker than this one I think things will get worse I'm afraid.

 

 

summers are actually getting hotter and by 2050 we should be seeing frequent hot summers on the 2003 scale every other year, but this year its all been doom and gloom and all thanks to el nino which was moderate to strong. We could be in for a very dry rainless winter by looks of things.

Edited by 40*C
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

From Brian Fagan's (excellent) book 'The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850':

(Chapter 12: A Warmer Greenhouse)

 

 

Then there are the clouds. In a fascinatingly esoteric piece of research, Hans Neuberger studied the clouds shown in 6,500 paintings completed between 1400 and 1967 from forty-one art museums in the United States and Europe. His statistical analysis revealed a slow increase in cloudiness between the beginning of the fifteenth and the mid-sixteenth centuries, followed by a sudden jump in cloud cover. Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850. Eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century summer artists regularly painted 50 to 75 percent cloud cover into their summer skies. The English landscape artist John Constable, born in Suffolk in 1776 and a highly successful painter of English country life, on average depicted almost 75 percent cloud cover. His contemporary Joseph Mallord William Turner, who traveled widely painting cathedrals and English scenes, did roughly the same.

After 1850, cloudiness tapers off slightly in Neuberger's painting sample. But skies are never as blue as in earlier times, a phenomenon Neuberger attributes to both the "hazy" atmospheric effects caused by short brush strokes favoured by impressionists and to the increased air pollution resulting from the Industrial Revolution, which diminished the blueness of European skies.

The changes were not mere artistic fashion but probably accurate depictions of increased cloud cover.

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1970.tb03232.x/abstract

 

An unusual proxy and a bit fanciful for me, but interesting nonetheless and relevant to the topic. However we are talking about trends on the scales of centuries.

Edited by Yarmy
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

summers are actually getting hotter and by 2050 we should be seeing frequent hot summers on the 2003 scale every other year, but this year its all been doom and gloom and all thanks to el nino which was moderate to strong. We could be in for a very dry rainless winter by looks of things.

 

That statement is just as one dimensional as the one you replied to.

 

The scientists now think the warming will be more stepped and that big regional differences could occur. There may be low solar implication in changes in the Atlantic currents and in placement of atmospheric waves - they don't know for sure what the mechanism is - lots of new research on the subject.

 

The high pressure belts may be changing and the introduction of shots of upper cold into the Atlantic will certainly produce more cloud for a maritime environment.

 

An edit to include a blocking incidence table that shows a big increase in stuck weather patterns during summer: many of these have not been favourable for cloud free conditions . Last column for 2000-2013.

 

It is from a study on Arctic amplification and changing weather patterns.

 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/10/1/014005/article

 

7cBHUKi.png

Edited by Nouska
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

I tend to find in my location that unless 850hPa temps are 15C+, continentally influenced weather actually brings more cloud (convective type) than sunny westerlies and northwesterlies (along the lines of June this year). June 30th was a good example of very high uppers resulting in a cloudless day. The clear days in April and June, however, tended to be from northwesterlies or northeasterlies here. Granted, that probably has something to do with my location in the West Country.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL

From Brian Fagan's (excellent) book 'The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made History 1300-1850':

(Chapter 12: A Warmer Greenhouse)

 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1970.tb03232.x/abstract

 

An unusual proxy and a bit fanciful for me, but interesting nonetheless and relevant to the topic. However we are talking about trends on the scales of centuries.

"Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850." - nicely encompassing the Maunder Minimum.

 

Musn't mention "Grand Minimum" as it'll annoy another poster - oops, I just did. :p

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

"Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850." 

 

where do you get that statement from please?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL

"Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850." 

 

where do you get that statement from please?

From Yarmy's post #30 above

<snip>

"

Quote

 

Then there are the clouds. In a fascinatingly esoteric piece of research, Hans Neuberger studied the clouds shown in 6,500 paintings completed between 1400 and 1967 from forty-one art museums in the United States and Europe. His statistical analysis revealed a slow increase in cloudiness between the beginning of the fifteenth and the mid-sixteenth centuries, followed by a sudden jump in cloud cover. Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) increase sharply after 1550 but fall again after 1850. Eighteenth- and early nineteenth-century summer artists regularly painted 50 to 75 percent cloud cover into their summer skies. The English landscape artist John Constable, born in Suffolk in 1776 and a highly successful painter of English country life, on average depicted almost 75 percent cloud cover. His contemporary Joseph Mallord William Turner, who traveled widely painting cathedrals and English scenes, did roughly the same.

After 1850, cloudiness tapers off slightly in Neuberger's painting sample. But skies are never as blue as in earlier times, a phenomenon Neuberger attributes to both the "hazy" atmospheric effects caused by short brush strokes favoured by impressionists and to the increased air pollution resulting from the Industrial Revolution, which diminished the blueness of European skies.

The changes were not mere artistic fashion but probably accurate depictions of increased cloud cover.

 

http://onlinelibrary...3232.x/abstract

 

</snip>

 

I forget to mention the Dalton Minimum which also occured in that time frame.

 

Food for thought: https://nextgrandminimum.wordpress.com/

Edited by Wildswimmer Pete
Link to comment
Share on other sites

summers are actually getting hotter and by 2050 we should be seeing frequent hot summers on the 2003 scale every other year, but this year its all been doom and gloom and all thanks to el nino which was moderate to strong. We could be in for a very dry rainless winter by looks of things.

 

 

LOL, so you responded to tosh with even worse tosh. :D

 

The reason for the lack of cloudless days this summer is a dominant SW'ly Tropical Maritime pattern, Spring was much sunnier with airmasses sourced from Polar regions not the Tropically sourced airmasses from the mid atlantic.

Edited by Eugene
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

I queried the precise timing, it does not match what is actual cloud cover statistics I suspect and the definition of 

 Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) 

It is an interesting postulation but not more than that in my view.

I may be wrong but would need scientific evidence before I believe it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL

I queried the precise timing, it does not match what is actual cloud cover statistics I suspect and the definition of 

 Low clouds (as opposed to fair-weather high clouds) 

It is an interesting postulation but not more than that in my view.

I may be wrong but would need scientific evidence before I believe it.

How would anyone actually have any statistics? No photography back then so the only visual records are those captured by painters and other artists.  Subjective and open to interpretation.  Sadly, there's no real-life Tardis available.  However I've formed the opinion over the past few years that we are entering a Grand Minimum - the evidence is there: increasingly shorter, cooler and definitely cloudier summers (taking into account my location).  What I would describe as proper summer weather has increasingly been restricted to 2-3 weeks in July. for the past few years, while '14 saw the arrival of Big Bertha in August ushering in an early autumn.  This year has seen NO summery weather here, even July has now joined June and May as mostly chilly, cloudy and windy as an October day. Good heavens, this year we even night frosts in July  :shok:. Now it looks like this August is a damp squib with the promised "hot spell" always remaining a couple of days in the future - "jam tomorrow".  A lot our our unseasonal weather seems have been down to the jet stream being stuck in its "winter" position with the UK directly under it or even worse, to the north of a preternaturally south-shifted jet stream.

 

Yes, I may be guilty of pattern-matching but my job used to involve recognisation of patterns.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

How would anyone actually have any statistics? No photography back then so the only visual records are those captured by painters and other artists.  Subjective and open to interpretation.  Sadly, there's no real-life Tardis available.  However I've formed the opinion over the past few years that we are entering a Grand Minimum - the evidence is there: increasingly shorter, cooler and definitely cloudier summers (taking into account my location).  What I would describe as proper summer weather has increasingly been restricted to 2-3 weeks in July. for the past few years, while '14 saw the arrival of Big Bertha in August ushering in an early autumn.  This year has seen NO summery weather here, even July has now joined June and May as mostly chilly, cloudy and windy as an October day. Good heavens, this year we even night frosts in July  :shok:. Now it looks like this August is a damp squib with the promised "hot spell" always remaining a couple of days in the future - "jam tomorrow".  A lot our our unseasonal weather seems have been down to the jet stream being stuck in its "winter" position with the UK directly under it or even worse, to the north of a preternaturally south-shifted jet stream.

 

Yes, I may be guilty of pattern-matching but my job used to involve recognisation of patterns.

How long would you perceive this minimum lasting?
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL

How long would you perceive this minimum lasting?

The Dalton Minimum (the most recent) lasted about 20 years.  The Maunder Minimum lasted much longer - about 60 years.  I doubt I'll see the end of this one - if we are actually entering a Grand Minimum.  I've been castigated for mentioning the possibilty of one, it's as if I've uttered the "Name that must never be said", but I feel that low sun activity is the elephant in the room.

 

https://nextgrandmin....wordpress.com/

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

My record at this site began in 1977 with 1978 as the first  full year of records.

Below are the 10 year means for the number of days in summer ( June to August) when 75% or more of the possible amount of sunshine on any given day was recorded; a day with more than 75% of possible sunshine can be generally taken as a cloudless day.

 

1978-1987    9.7 days

1988-1997   15.1 days

1998-2007   11.0 days

2008-2015     7.2 days   (2015 has had 8 days so far and I've used this figure for the calculation)

 

A significant decline since the late 80s/early 90s and certainly enough to alter the public perception of cloudless days. Whether or not it's just a temporary blip or a longer trend remains to be seen. 

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cool not cold, warm not hot. No strong Wind.
  • Location: N.Bedfordshire, E.Northamptonshire

Cannot see any clouds here at this time in my locale

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

The Dalton Minimum (the most recent) lasted about 20 years.  The Maunder Minimum lasted much longer - about 60 years.  I doubt I'll see the end of this one - if we are actually entering a Grand Minimum.  I've been castigated for mentioning the possibilty of one, it's as if I've uttered the "Name that must never be said", but I feel that low sun activity is the elephant in the room.

 

https://nextgrandmin....wordpress.com/

 

Perhaps I'm introducing an 'elephant' into the room when I link this study as it has a core more suited to the climate section.

 

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2015/150623/ncomms8535/full/ncomms8535.html

 

If we can leave any climate discussion aside, it has some interesting modelling as to what a future grand minimum might entail. The main focus is on winter, obviously greater impact in that season but some of the circulation changes envisaged seem to be manifesting themselves in the summer season too.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Now those are interesting stats from TM's records, and they certainly confirm what I perceive- that clear summer days started to decline from about 1998 and really nosedived after 2007.

Even 1978-1987 which included several very poor Summers was better than nowadays, and they have more than halved since 1988-1997. Would be interesting to see how summer compares with other seasons, my feeling is they havent declined so much in winter if at all, and may have increased in March-April.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Here are the same stat's for spring ( March-May) 

 

1978-1987   10.1 days

1988-1997   11.1 days

1988-2007   11.2 days

2008-2015   13.4 days  ( 8 years only)

 

Incidentally, although the 10 year periods listed fall as they do because my record began in 1978 it's something of a coincidence that the 1988-1997 decade in summer and the 2008-2015 period in spring also returned the highest average of any 10 year period on the record.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Here are the same stat's for spring ( March-May) 

 

1978-1987   10.1 days

1988-1997   11.1 days

1988-2007   11.2 days

2008-2015   13.4 days  ( 8 years only)

Incidentally, although the 10 year periods listed fall as they do because my record began in 1978 it's something of a coincidence that the 1988-1997 decade in summer and the 2008-2015 period in spring also returned the highest average of any 10 year period on the record.

It's coincidental that their end dates correspond closely to what people perceive as "flips" in our climate (warmer winters after 1988, worse summers after 2007), but it does suggest that the perception of fewer cloudless days in summer is very real, and shown in the stats.

My suspicion that they have increased in spring is backed up too, though it's nowhere near as big a change. Now Autumn, see if I can get this one right: I think 1998-2007 will have the lowest number. That was the era of the annual October monsoon, often extending into Sept or Nov as well. Although 1988-1997 could run it close, that period had several years of poor Septembers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Stat's for autumn as follows

 

1978-1987   10.5  days

1988-1997   11.6 days

1998-2007   10.5 days

2008-2014   10.6 days ( 7 years only )

 

The best decade was 1985-1994 with an average of 12.7 days and the worst was 1994-2003 with 10.1 days.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Stat's for autumn as follows

 

1978-1987   10.5  days

1988-1997   11.6 days

1998-2007   10.5 days

2008-2014   10.6 days ( 7 years only )

 

The best decade was 1985-1994 with an average of 12.7 days and the worst was 1994-2003 with 10.1 days.

Just winter to go now... Thanks for digging out all these stats for us. If winter is similar to Autumn and spring (I expect so) that would mean summer has gone from being the most cloudless season 20 years ago, to the least now!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

Here are the winter stat's. ( Dec- Feb )

 

1978-1987  10.9 days

1988-1997   9.8 days

1998-2007  13.3 days

2008-2015   11.0 days ( 8 years only)

 

The best decade was 1999-2008 wich averaged 14.1 days and the worst was 1989-1998 which averaged 9.6 days.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

I thought springs were getting much sunnier,as far summer that just shows much duller very interesting.

Winter and autumn not much change.

Edited by Snowyowl9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.

The stat's for August are quite revealing.

 

1978-1987   3.0 days

1988-1997   6.1 days

1998-2007   3.6 days

2008-2015   0.7 days

 

There have been no cloudless days this August and, looking at the latest model output, it doesn't look as though there will be any so I assumed the figure for August 2015 is 0. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nope, no cloudless days I recall this year (or last year for that matter - summer 2013 I think was the last one) june 30th got close until a nice castellanusfest in the late eve (which is always welcome of course :-))

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...