atlantic hurricane season Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread

[summer blizzard]

Marked improvement in recent hours, hard to tell its not a tropical storm.

Euro ensembles have apparently trended west.

[summer blizzard]

Recon have found a reading of 4KT SW and 50KT in the east, highly likely the next recon will find a closed low and declare a TS.

[lorenzo]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/movies/g8wvbbm/g8wvbbmjava.html

 

TS in the morning, how conducive is GOM to formation..

[Gray-Wolf]

With another big disturbance just dipping its toes off Africa we now have 3 areas of interest in the Atlantic. The season is finally beginning maybe? Some of the models do show the current near tropical storm having a walk up the spine of Florida so it appears that it might not just go 'fish' on us?

[summer blizzard]

Appears to have gotten a bit of a shred from Haiti however recon have found 1006mb, no closed low though.

[summer blizzard]

1003mb at 72W.

[knocker]

Atlantic Disturbance 96L Still 96L But Threat to US Increases

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2772

[summer blizzard]

UKMO and NAVGEM both go Florida then the Panhandle.

 

[knocker]

GFS Tropical

 

[summer blizzard]

We have it. Tropical Depression 4.

NHC backs the fish solution but notes that track confidence is lower than normal. GFS has trended west and some ensembles back the UKMO.

[Gray-Wolf]

I think it will linger and prove a threat to Florida and then one of the 'Georgia's' on the way out?

[summer blizzard]

NHC have a system at 35W given a 20% chance of development in 5 days.

 

 

GFS fails to pick it up but does develop a wave coming off Africa late in the week. GEM develops it as it approaches the Islands and ends with this..

 

[summer blizzard]

Now at 30% in 5 days. 0z GEM had a 979mb hurricane slam into the Carolinas as per yesterdays 12z above. GFS and GEM 12z tonight have it weak until its near the south east coast. Also now declared 97L.

 

 

 

 

.....................

 

Finally we should watch the Bay of Campeche in about a week, both GFS and GEM develop a system.

[summer blizzard]

Something else to note is that the GFS has been consistently aggressive with a wave leaving Africa at the end of the week..

 

[summer blizzard]

Euro and 18z both back the Bay of Campeche.

[summer blizzard]

97L dropped, 10% chance of development.

A look at the 0z models suggests good confidence in the Bay of Campeche and near Cape Verde in around 5 days.

[knocker]

What's this all about?

 

A weather story next week will be extremely powerful Hudson Bay extratropical cyclone -- warm seclusion over water. pic.twitter.com/VVibA53lIS

[summer blizzard]

Back to 30% for the Bay of Campeche.

 

[summer blizzard]

50% for the Bay of Campeche.

[Vorticity0123]

The NHC has upped the chances of development of 99L to 30% within the next 24 hours, and 60% within the next 48 hours. Currently, the system is still over land, so development is not likely within the next 24 hours.

 

As of 17:45 UTC, 99L consists of a deep, but elongated convection NNW-SSE, with a band of weakening convection seen on the eastern flank of the wave (over water).

 

Dvorak satellite imagery loop of 99L (Courtesy: NOAA).

 

There is little evidence of a surface circulation as of yet (not visible on the imagery above). This might change, though, once the system starts emerging into the Bay of Campeche.

 

The models are showing quite some spread with 99L, showing possibilities ranging from a westward track to a northwestward track.

 

Track model forecasts of 99L, as of 31-08-2014 12 UTC.

 

This differences in track could also have major implications on the maximum intensity of 99L (assuming conditions are favorable enough for development). A westward track would result in very little time over water and only little development possible, while a northwestward track would yield ample time over water and possibly more significant development.

 

Finally, an interesting blog about 99L can be found in the link below:

 

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/comment.html?entrynum=223

 

Sources:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/99L_floater.html

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2014/al992014/

[summer blizzard]

Yup, now a cherry.

 

Satellite suggests the center trying to form is underneath convection unlike our FISH which should help once it emerges, GFS ensembles are also solid on a track.

 

Recon will be in tomorrow.

 

000
NOUS42 KNHC 311645
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1245 PM EDT SUN 31 AUGUST 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 01/1730Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 01/1445Z
D. 20.0N 93.5W
E. 01/1700Z TO 01/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/0530Z, 1130Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 02/0230Z
D. 20.5N 95.0W
E. 02/0500Z TO 02/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY......CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AS LONG AS IT REMAINS
A THREAT.

3. REMARKS: POSSIBLE NASA GLOBAL HAWK RESEARCH MISSION
OVER SUSPECT AREA TAKING OFF AT 02/1100Z.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Now at 70%.

[summer blizzard]

Next wave moving off Africa on Thursday has 30% for 5 days. 12z GFS brings it to TS strength but makes the wave after a hurricane.

 

 

[summer blizzard]

Now at 40% and declared 90L.

[knocker]

I'm a bit confused I take it this is 91L