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Atlantic hurricane season/invest thread


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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Confidence growing tonight on two things..

1) 96L is probably a bust (high shear is forecast to persist and the atmosphere dry out), it's already less organised than yesterday

2) 97L is where the real action is with forecast shear downgraded and by days 4-5 a slowing system, abundant moisture and sea temperatures around 30C.

Needless to say, the GFS was pretty aggressive tonight..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_32.png

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

97l became the "form horse" yesterday when 96 ingested a fresh plume of saharan air and became disorganised,

the forums are buzzing across the pond about 97 but a bigger worry are the phenomenal ssts!

hwrf has a track into the yucatan & after that anythings possible for re-intensification in the BOC,

id say if  this can survive the 30kn shear sector south of DR then a TS is nailed on in the least?

talk of the pre-requisite 26C sst's only 200 mile south of NYC has got folk spooked,

i lost the remarkable gif's comparing sst's in the Atlantic with this time last year & present but they were stark contrasts!

anyway, this disturbance  (now at 60% dev possibilities, 5 days) is lot to keep eye on for a while.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

May not win any awards for strength but its a pure blood tropical system that should be big and look good on satellite. 

gfs_midRH_watl_28.png

The wierd GFS18z just sends it round and round the Bay of Campeche tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Now at 70%.

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Will it thread the needle?

I remember 05' and wondering the some of storms would slip through the straight between Yucatan and Cuba? My reasoning is if it has to make landfall I'd rather it do it in the U.S. than the poorer, less developed countries! Sadly it would also mean longer over the superheated Gulf waters.......

Maybe a spin in the gulf, a trip over Florida and then an odd recurve to give NY a blow? 

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
23 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Will it thread the needle?

I remember 05' and wondering the some of storms would slip through the straight between Yucatan and Cuba? My reasoning is if it has to make landfall I'd rather it do it in the U.S. than the poorer, less developed countries! Sadly it would also mean longer over the superheated Gulf waters.......

Maybe a spin in the gulf, a trip over Florida and then an odd recurve to give NY a blow? 

While we have had some fodder runs going for it those have the system develop almost immediately which is why the stronger system is pulled further north (and gets a lucky angle). I tend to suspect that we won't actually see much happen for 48 hours or so as it's not until then that the system slows sufficiently. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

Its speed (predicted 29mph up to 48hrs out) is the only condition holding this back for sure!

just cleared through Martinique but any interaction with Jamaica shouldnt pose to much of a problem, maybe yucatan will further down the line but we know how the BOC can revitalise the minimalist of disturbances?

the THCP from here on is ripe so its just a matter of holding off the 30kn sector of shear,

its all about the southern states ridge strength regards US or Mex landfall?

thrilling stuff :)

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

Was wondering "when" & not "if" Recon was gonna be scheduled?

off out to investigate area south & west of Jamaica Tues 18z.

& to prove this thread isnt just about 97L then take a peak at Ens plans for the lurking underdog 96! :D

 

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

97L (or "Earl" in the making) has very cold tops this morning with its better still organisation, +40kn sustained winds yet still no LLC?

Almost certain however for classification later today,,,

image.png

 

As for 96l then i think someone cloned another portion of the atlantic & pasted over it? as its been dropped completely?

Edited by mezzacyclone
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Will need to wait for light in the US to see a decent image but it could be named today. 

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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands
4 hours ago, mezzacyclone said:

97L (or "Earl" in the making) has very cold tops this morning with its better still organisation, +40kn sustained winds yet still no LLC?

 

A WINDSAT scan of this morning (07:19 UTC) showed that 97L did not have a closed surface circulation yet. There was a sharp wind shift visible around the black line indicated in the figure below. Yet the wind shift was elongated on a NE-SW axis, and no true westerlies could be observed.

 

Windsat.png

WINDSAT image of 97L at 07:19 UTC 01-08

Yet given the convection sustaining itself over the system for quite some time now, it would not surprise me if a surface circulation would have closed off and become less elongated. There is no data available as of writing, but one could argue that tropical cyclone formation is becoming more likely.

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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks
5 hours ago, Vorticity0123 said:

There was a sharp wind shift visible around the black line indicated in the figure below. Yet the wind shift was elongated on a NE-SW axis, and no true westerlies could be observed.

 

Windsat.png

So thats the positively tilted wave axis into the E trade winds or barotropic eddygrowth that Levi Cowan detailed yesterday?

The vort max to the north of the disturbance may amplify by kinetic energy from the mean flow so the north end of the wave moves faster (pivot/rotation) than the southern end (nearer venezuela) so some models chance an upright straight direct North/South axis where amplification could spawn low level circulation south of Haiti or further west nearer Jamaica? But this in turn could pull the whole system further South toward Belize & Honduras as late TC formation & negative tilt could leave a weakened vort max on the north end of the wave being susceptible to a much broader vorticity around the southern wedge fueled by columbian/venezuelan heat?

Todays 12z gfs 850 CV continues with this theory plotting through Honduras & Guatemala.

Anyhow, Recon`s out now on a special mission so maybe this will clear up a lot of speculation?

 

 

Edited by mezzacyclone
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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks

Recon yet to descend, last fix approaching Jamaica, approx 200-250 mile west of 97L outer bands,nothing but Easterly winds so far,,,

***UPDATE***

NHC special headline: Recon aircraft returning home due to maintenance issues,,,

That`s scuppered more clarity on classification then? Just goes to show how difficult a fast transitting disturbance is to define an LLC to confirm TC status?

Edited by mezzacyclone
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Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...

Looking at the cloud banding, I would say this has now gained enough circulation to form quite a potent Tropical Storm - it will be interesting to see what the Recon finds this morning (in about 6 hours time)

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Posted
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......
  • Weather Preferences: Hot & Sunny, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Mytholmroyd, West Yorks.......

Looks like the terrain of Jamaica 'split' the building storm in two? what will emerge the other side is anyone's guess???

I think if the northern portion reintegrates into the system it will;

a/ Be Big!!!

b/ Swing further in its NW track ( thread the needle?)

Did recon develop issues half way out or was that yesterday?

EDIT : If we include the top lobe into the system then it is much further North than any of the guidance shows??? Most show it blasting into the south of Yucatan but I'm not so sure with that mass forming to the north of Jamaica?

Edited by Gray-Wolf
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Looks like there's been a very small LLC well ahead of the main convection due to shear. Convection building over again according to those more in tune with these things.

GOES13552016215_UUNcwd.jpg

Plane descending into the storm now - hopefully no more technical issues this time. Levi Cowan running obs from the mission.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

 

Edited by Nouska
NHC twitter update.
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Posted
  • Location: s yorks
  • Weather Preferences: c'mon thunder
  • Location: s yorks
40 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Looks like the terrain of Jamaica 'split' the building storm in two? what will emerge the other side is anyone's guess???

I think if the northern portion reintegrates into the system it will;

a/ Be Big!!!

b/ Swing further in its NW track ( thread the needle?)

Did recon develop issues half way out or was that yesterday?

EDIT : If we include the top lobe into the system then it is much further North than any of the guidance shows??? Most show it blasting into the south of Yucatan but I'm not so sure with that mass forming to the north of Jamaica?

Recon developed aircraft maintenance issues just prior to sweeping the outer bands yesterday evening & returned to base.

Out now & last data suggests a centre!!!

14:42:00 - 16.167N 80.000W
From 285° at 1 knots
(From the WNW at ~ 1.2 mph)
14:42:30Z16.183N 79.983W

14:42:30 - 16.183N - 79.983W
From 133° at 9 knots
(From the SE at ~ 10.4 mph)

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

The UKMO is still bullish with TC genesis in the NE of GoM. Most show area of vorticity but no other model develops strong storm as suggested here at day four. 

d9af222c331f605b0047c14a9df5cf83.png

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/2016/2016080500/ukm2.2016080912.108.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

 

 

Edited by Nouska
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Posted
  • Location: The Netherlands
  • Location: The Netherlands
12 hours ago, Nouska said:

Signs of life ,day seven, in the MDR from tonights ECM.

Still much chopping and changing to be expected, since this morning's ECMWF run (14-08 00Z) shows two different systems developing in a significant tropical system, The first one peaks in about 5 days:

ECMWF_120.png

ECMWF surface pressure and anomalies (colours) 00Z 14-08 T+120

This system, probably only being a weak tropical depression at best, is located in the East Tropical Atlantic just to the west of the Cape Verde islands. In subsequent timeframes the system weakens while travelling northwestward.

The second, more vigorous system, 'peaks' in 240 hours (10 days):

ECMWF_240.png

ECMWF surface pressure and anomalies (colours) 00Z 14-08 T+240

Once again the low is located just to the west of the Cape Verde islands. This one could become more vigorous in this run, but unfortunately it ends in 10 days.

Potential vs uncertainty

Given how the most recent ECMWF differs from the previous one, one could argue that the uncertainty level is still rather high. The latest GFS (not shown here) does not develop any tropical cyclones, although it does show the first low pressure area in 5 days' time as a somewhat weaker system. Therefore, the first system will probably be there in about 5 days in some kind or shape. After that it seems to be anybody's guess. Nevertheless the potential of a tropical cyclone is definitely there in the next 10 days, Interesting times ahead.

Charts courtesy: tropicaltidbits.

 

Edited by Vorticity0123
Added source of charts
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

Global models becoming more bullish after day 5. GFS develops 2 systems including this tasty fellow..

gfs_z500_mslp_watl_53.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

98L has a 70% chance of development. It's a definite FISH so watch the output for the UK splutter once it gets close to the Jet Stream.

Euro develops another wave off of Africa around day 6.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

98L at 90%.

Euro is extremely aggressive with the wave dropping off Africa in 5 days. A hurricane more or less by the time it's passed the Cape Verde islands.

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