Model Output Discussion - 1st August 00z---------->

[Winter Cold]

Interestingly, following on from the 6z ensembles earlier which showed that run in isolation later on, the 12z GEFs now have a group or 4 or 5 members taking that much warmer path from the 9th. You can see the divergence nicely here:

 

 

So the signal for something warmer perhaps growing?

The London graph is pretty good with temps getting into the mid-high 20s on quite a few members.......

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening Campers! The model output from both ecm and gfs both scream mobility from the Atlantic, southern Britain seeing Changeable conditions ,northern Britain seeing the lions share of unsettled conditions....southeast England the best for any heat this week.

[knocker]

Well I'm not surprised but NOAA isn't budging Await the ec, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

 

[knocker]

Not completely unexpected but the ecm follows the NOAA line. It's not much different to the GEFS at T168 with the trough retrogressing NW which allows more ingress from the Azores but at T240 has it further east and further south and by T312 it's completely different with the trough centred Iceland orientated south just to the west of the UK which would produce weather inclined to what we are used to with the N/S split. And by T360 the trough is even closer to the UK The GEFS must be off on one or else it's picked up something everyone else is missing.

 

None of this hugely bad, although I'm afraid the north will be the worse off as usual, but no signicant change would appear to be in the offing at the moment.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Edited August 1, 2015 by knocker

[knocker]

Hmmm

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago

Finding all dates where the atmosphere was in a similar super-El Nino state, corresponding start to winter:

 

[mushymanrob]

absolutely not worth getting overly excited by charts like this



the anomaly charts for that period do not support it, so unless they change, it wont happen, sorry to be so blunt and untechnical.... but...



strongly consistent for upper mean trough domination to our northwest, a pattern that looks set to stick through most of august (assuming theres no drastic change), the old nw/se split with the southeast not faring too badly temp wise as the hot continental air channel hops quite freely.

at least some of you will have a pretty good week.

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS does show a relaxation of types of the stubborn N/W flow we have endured. As High Pressure pushes slightly further North than of recent weeks. Thursday could see temps hit 27/28/29c in some parts of the South,  And even the Midlands could see 24/25/26c. Further into the run around the 14/15th we see further settled weather push North from the S/W, As Mushy says nothing to get 'exited' about, But it's certainly looking more settled/pleasant and warmer for the North at least as we move towards mid-August, Which is something this Summer has struggled with thus far..

Edited August 2, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Scorcher]

It's not the worst setup for England as a whole Mushy, obviously the high temps will be mainly restricted to the SE but it certainly won't be cold for any of us.

There is a slight annoyance though that places like Denmark and Sweden are able to get into the hot air next week despite being further north than us. It really is amazing how often the heat misses us, and often by not that much.

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 08:00 ON SUNDAY AUG 2ND 2015.

 

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A warm Southerly flow will cover the UK today with a warm front moving north across Northern areas followed by a cold front tonight which in turn will be followed by a fresher SW airflow tomorrow.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif 

 

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Still rather changeable with some dry and bright conditions mixed with occasional rain or showers. Generally on the cool side but a few warmer interludes possible in the South.

 

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a continuation of the flow moving NE across the Uk for the next week or so . It turns to a more direct West to East flow still across the UK next week while at the end of the period the flow becomes cyclonic around the UK.

 

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream 

 

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows a classic NW to SE split in the weather for the most part. The North and West of the UK will remain under the influence of a generally SW flow controlled by Low pressure to the NW giving rain at times. The South and East will be more under the influence of higher pressure to the SE and South and this will at times suck up some warm continental air. Howver, some rain from troughs moving across from the West is possible here too though more of the time will be dry rather than wet. The end of the run sees cooler and more cyclonic conditions for all areas.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif 

 

THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Control Run remains very similar to it's operational brother in that a NW/SE split remains in the weather with some fine and warm conditions in the SE at times and only very occasional rain. The North and West will always be windier and more changeable with more frequent outbreaks of rain or showers and a cooler trend for the SE too at the end of the period as cooler west or NW winds filter down.

 

THE GFS CLUSTERS(14 Days) The GFS Clusters are not available at time of publish.

 

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=gefs&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=cpre&HH=372&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

 

UKMO UKMO today shows a deep Low up to the NW of the UK for the early days of this week with strong winds and rain or showers at times especially towards the North and West. Later in the week slacker winds develop but with Low pressure remaining to the west of the UK some showers can still be expected with the best conditions remaining in the SE where it could be rather warm at first.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif 

 

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts this morning show changeable conditions through the week as various troughs cross the UK especially at first and again later in the week most prolific towards the West.

 

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120.

 

GEM GEM this morning continues to highlight the stark differences between the NW of the UK to the SE as the SE sees a lot of warm weather with just very occasional outbreaks of rain while the NW sees a strong influence from Low pressure to the NW with rain and showers at times and as a result much cooler conditions than further South

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif 

 

NAVGEM NAVGEM does indicate a more coherent and perhaps thundery Low pressure cell crossing NE over the UK late in the week or early in the weekend before a pattern reset to which we have all become accustomed takes shape later with the SE becoming dry and bright while SW winds and rain at times occur elsewhere.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif.

 

ECM ECM completes the set this morning showing only day to day differences from the rest of the output which remains within the parameters of the same theme as the rest with a West or SW flow across the UK, quite strong in the NW at times where there will be the most chance of rain at times while drier and warmer conditions at times is most likely in the SE where a few thundery outbreaks are possible late on.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

 

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart  looks all too familiar this morning with a trough from Low pressure near Iceland down across the UK bringing rain at times in a Westerly flow to the North and West while the drier of any conditions will be found towards Southern and SE Britain where it will be a little warmer than elsewhere.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif 

 

NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS I see no real pattern changes to the existing theme of the weather over the next few weeks

 

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The Verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM. This morning's verification statistics show ECM leading the way at 3 days with 95.9 pts followed by UKMO at 95.3 pts and GFS at 94.7 pts. At 5 days ECM is stll king at 86.0 pts followed by UKMO at 82.7 and GFS at 82.6 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 57.9 pts over GFS's 53.4 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 38.6 pts to 32.4 pts from GFS.

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.prig

 

MY THOUGHTS For those observers looking for a major pattern change within the output this morning will find it is like looking for a needle in a haystack as the generally synoptic pattern we have become so accustomed too remains largely unchanged yet again today. Putting the meat on the bones shows that the UK is still largely pestered by a Jet Stream which remains doggedly too far South to allow a full scale push of the very warm and summery continental weather to make inroads into the UK other than the SE in fleeting glances. To the North of the Jet flow which blows somewhere over the UK for some considerable time yet lies Low pressure, usually up to the NW and sending troughs of Low pressure NE and East over the UK with rain at times. Not much of this reaches the SE where conditions for a lot of the time could be rather warm and humid before the inevitable trough comes in from the West to cool and freshen things up before the pattern resets. The North and West will see little chance of warm continental air as the SW flow off the Atlantic continuously brings spells of rain and showers and blustery cool winds. So I'm afraid it's more of the same over the coming couple of week with the North and West of Britain seeing an in-balance in the share of good weather that the South and East continue to receive with rain at times the order of the day and temperatures average at best. However, not many in the SE will end up grumbling as within the reliable time-frame the weather here looks reasonable and at times good with temperatures comfortably warm with just shorter cooler phases when a little rain or thundery shower is possible..

 

Next update from 09:00 Monday Aug 3rd 2015

[legritter]

Going by recent charts data after a warm up for some especially southern and more eastern parts it then becomes more unsettled and westerly based .spoke with my old mate in kent last night and he says summers been good there so our small island yet again providing differnt weather types .

I suppose soon people will be asking what this months Bank holiday weather will be like , if you want to know follow the sun newspaper and express as they are usually Spot on [waste of space ] great forum this whish it was around 40 years ago ,cheers all 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z turns into another cracker of a run just like it did yesterday, the charts speak for themselves. Let's hope this late summer delivers something like this run shows in the next few weeks, if it does, there will be plenty to smile about.

Edited August 2, 2015 by Frosty.

[Milhouse]

The 12z doesnt show as settled a picture for next weekend as the 6z showed. But the consistent signal emerging is for lower pressure to become established over Greenland.

 

[mushymanrob]

The 12z doesnt show as settled a picture for next weekend as the 6z showed. But the consistent signal emerging is for lower pressure to become established over Greenland.

 

Because the 06z was wrong. It was never going to be settled as the 06z predicted.

But lower pressure over greenland is likely, not that a greenland high alone can spoil the weather here in the uk, other factors also contribute.

[Frosty.]

Because the 06z was wrong. It was never going to be settled as the 06z predicted.

The Gfs 12z is much more unsettled than the 6z but that could be wrong too. My take on the outlook is it won't be as unsettled as the 12z but equally not as settled as the 6z. Whichever model is right, the experts say the south and east will continue to have fine and warm spells whereas the north west of the UK will continue to bear the brunt of the cool, unsettled conditions which has been the story of this summer so far.

P.S....very sad to hear the news of the passing of cilla Black

Edited August 2, 2015 by Frosty.

[A.J]

the 06z giveth......the 12z taketh away...

 

 

bugger

[Milhouse]

And the mean, as you would expect, suggests something inbetween

 

[mushymanrob]

The Gfs 12z is much more unsettled than the 6z but that could be wrong too. My take on the outlook is it won't be as unsettled as the 12z but equally not as settled as the 6z. Whichever model is right, the experts say the south and east will continue to have fine and warm spells whereas the north west of the UK will continue to bear the brunt of the cool, unsettled conditions which has been the story of this summer so far.

P.S....very sad to hear the news of the passing of cilla Black

Im in broad agreement with that frosty, but i do place a lot of faith in what the noaa anomaly charts suggest. They are remarkably accurate in predicting the general mean upper atmosphere pattern for the time period they cover. So ill tend to believe the op runs that suggest an evolution that they support which alas isnt what id like them to support often this disappointing summer. Hence my dismissal of the 06z. With a bit of luck however, they just might swing in favour of something more settled soon because time is running out for summer heat.

Shame about cilla, but i lost a mate yesterday in a hang gliding accident which kinda overshadows cilla for me.

[Frosty.]

Im in broad agreement with that frosty, but i do place a lot of faith in what the noaa anomaly charts suggest. They are remarkably accurate in predicting the general mean upper atmosphere pattern for the time period they cover. So ill tend to believe the op runs that suggest an evolution that they support which alas isnt what id like them to support often this disappointing summer. Hence my dismissal of the 06z. With a bit of luck however, they just might swing in favour of something more settled soon because time is running out for summer heat.

Shame about cilla, but i lost a mate yesterday in a hang gliding accident which kinda overshadows cilla for me.

Sorry to hear about your mate mushy. As for the outlook, I think it's a continuation of the general pattern we have had for most of this summer with the nw/se split, warm and settled surges for the s/e and staying generally awful in the northwest (Cumbria, n.Ireland and the n/w of Scotland).

[Frosty.]

The GEM 12z shows high pressure building in from the southwest later in the week and pushing through the UK to become centred to the east with increasingly fine and warmer weather, becoming very warm / hot and humid for a time by next weekend and early the following week with a thundery breakdown, much better than the gfs 12z.

[mushymanrob]

Sorry to hear about your mate mushy. As for the outlook, I think it's a continuation of the general pattern we have had for most of this summer with the nw/se split, warm and settled surges for the s/e and staying generally awful in the northwest (Cumbria, n.Ireland and the n/w of Scotland).

Cheers

Yep thats what the anoms currently suggest, nw/se split which could allow for breif warmer interludes to spread into central areas but nothing of any length. Not overly wet though away from the northwest unless we pick up a nasty little thundery low.

[knocker]

The GEFS anomalies tonight. At T144 it loses the trough that has been in close proximity to the west of the UK and forms a new trough mid Atlantic from a low that nipped east from NE Canada orientated south of the Greenland low pressure area. This allows a brief incursion of the Azores and fine weather next weekend. It slowly moves this trough east but it repeats the evolution of last night and loses the trough (or virtually) by day ten. Also the same as last night in the ext period it removes any influence of the trough and has a flat zonal flow from the increasingly influential Azores HP to the SW and by the end of the run linking to weak ridging Scandinavia,

 

This scenario would bring settled and warmer temps to all of Britain after the 12th but the usual caveat is the GEFS is on it's own with this interpretation although it's sticking to it's guns.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[ANYWEATHER]

As early as T+72 hrs the ecm and gfs make more of the shortwave , It looks like the warmest day of this week has been today, perhaps Im wrong...but the models have stepped up a gear tonight as regards more unsettled conditions for southern Britain...

[Man With Beard]

Still pretty uncertain where we go after the weekend. High pressure moving in (except GFS which seems extremely far away from the others), but where will it end up once the pattern flatterns out again? UKMO could end up good (below) by T168/T192, GEM maybe too, ECM less likely and GFS on a different planet (so probably not the horse to back). Week 2's weather depends on the interaction between the mini-trough over the UK, the High moving in and the low being driven by the jet in the Atlantic. A "changeable" set-up seems favourite considering the form of the summer, with troughs likely to form at short-notice if the High does not become dominant - but still chance of a warmer, drier week 2 for many if UKMO is close.

 

 

A small positive, though, is that I would alter the status of northern areas from "unsettled" to also being "changeable" after mid-week, as the main upper-trough looks very likely to relocate far to the NW for at least a little while. No heatwave probably, but better than nothing. SE always best, as has been for quite some time.

 

And also better news, the NOAA 500mb charts slowly starting to improve - positive anomalies starting to infiltrate from the SE, and a decent positive anomaly to our east meaning most weather coming from a southerly rather than northerly direction. Can we yet squeeze a proper hot spell (longer than 2 days!) in before we lose the best part of the summer? 

 

Edited August 2, 2015 by rjbw

[mushymanrob]

And also better news, the NOAA 500mb charts slowly starting to improve - positive anomalies starting to infiltrate from the SE, and a decent positive anomaly to our east meaning most weather coming from a southerly rather than northerly direction. Can we yet squeeze a proper hot spell (longer than 2 days!) in before we lose the best part of the summer?

Yes indeed the noaa charts have taken a swing towards 'better' weather, suggesting higher pressure for the southeast which improves for central areas too. Looking tentetively much better, maybe the 06gfs wont be so far off the mark after all

Edited August 2, 2015 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

The ECM anomalies are still at variance with the GEFs. All much the same at T144 with the new trough mid Atlantic moving east but at this point the GEFS weakens it considerable whereas the ECM keeps it to the NW of the UK. Thereafter the ECM is quite different keeping the trough to the west of the UK until the end of the ext period. This is essentially the same as the last EC32 update which didn't revert to the GEFS position for another five days. It is also more in line with NOAA.

 

So at this stage if I was forced to give an opinion I would go with fairly high confidence for a good two or three days starting around next weekend for the whole of the UK before settling into a fairly familiar pattern for a while before a gradual improvement

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/