Summer lows incoming

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Been raining for half an hour here so far. Scary thing is, it's meant to continue on here until 6AM the next morning! Winds could also be quite remarkable later on.

[johnholmes]

It is significant that once again the rain area was not that well predicted by some of the models. A line roughly S Wales across to East Anglia was the most frequent northern extent.

Something for folk to bear in mind come the winter when trying to predict snowfall is infinitely more complex.

 

Looking at the 12z chart the largest falls 2+ to 3+ mb per 3 hours are along the Channel and in northern France. This should allow the surface feature to run up the Channel with only very modest deepening, pretty much keeping to just north of the 570DM 500 mb contour line, possibly edging across it just a little.

http://meteocentre.com/analyse/map.php?map=UK&date=2015072412&size=large〈=en&area=eur

Edited July 24, 2015 by johnholmes

[Steve C]

Not completely relevant, but I've been reading the tweets from Essex Cricket, as a friend of mine is due to attend the T20 match in Chelmsford this evening.

 

https://twitter.com/essexcricket?pk_campaign=social_usage&pk_kwd=twitter

 

Interesting in that they've refused to abandon the game so far - the gates opened at 16:30, but lord knows who'd want to sit out there in the rain... A few people are becoming irked. Hopefully the incoming very heavy area of rain should make the inevitable decision an earlier one...

Edited July 24, 2015 by Steve C

[William Grimsley]

Interestingly, the SE don't seem to be getting 'hit' as bad as the SW did earlier!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interestingly, the SE don't seem to be getting 'hit' as bad as the SW did earlier!

 

 

Give it about 2 hours an my rain total is going to well above yours lol! What is yours at now?

 

 

Top of my road flooded :/ I live in a tiny village to lol

[Cableguy]

Interestingly, the SE don't seem to be getting 'hit' as bad as the SW did earlier!

  Indeed - William it was really nothing (did you see what i did there  ).

[sunnijim]

Convective activety increasing now in the Channel and Northern France ahead of the cold front as Nick F predicted earlier.Quite a few strikes showing and SE England rainfall likely to intensify in the coming hours.

Edited July 24, 2015 by sunnijim

[Meggy]

Hi all. it's actually not raining at all here atm. Assuming there's more to come later.

[Paul_1978]

Models showing a 980mb low for Monday? Just In time for my Scotland holiday next week :-/

[DavidHamble57]

Could do with the rain. Let's hope it comes in the form of thunderstorms.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So all eyes on Monday now for the south...

 

very interesting little feature and the models can't get a grip..

 

This is slightly worrying.. 

 

 

Here is the system Midnight Sunday..

 

 

By 6am it moves.. The northward extent is up for question currently before it pulls away south... 

 

3pm...

 

 

 

Different models giving different out comes...

 

 

Some HUGE! totals!! bigger than a lot of places that got storms yesterday... as this little low will wrap around as it pulls back down south where that "stall" happens will see largest totals

 

 

 

Met office warning out expect it to be updated today..

 

ssued at: 
1151 on Sat 22 Aug 2015

Valid from: 
0000 on Mon 24 Aug 2015

Valid to: 
1800 on Mon 24 Aug 2015

An area of rain will run into the UK from the south on Monday morning, with some locally very heavy bursts, particularly across southern England and southeast Wales. With this following heavy rainfall in these areas over the weekend, the public should be aware of the risk of flooding, including disruption to travel. In addition to this there is the potential for strong winds, particularly around exposed coastal areas.

This warning will be updated in the coming days. A low pressure system is expected to run into the UK from the south on Monday morning bringing areas of heavy rain to the country, particularly southern England and southeast Wales. There remains some uncertainty over this development and the locations of the heaviest rain. However, there is the potential for 20-40 mm to fall quite widely with more than 60 mm possible in some places, much of this falling in a short period of time. With this coming after periods of heavy rain over the weekend there is scope for disruption from flooding.

With the uncertainties in this system, the alert is likely to be updated in the coming days.

 

[stainesbloke]

Another crap week ahead then! Lovely. Thankfully Fri afternoon and yesterday were glorious here. Wonder if tomorrow will bring storms to the south?