August 2015 CET forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield 15.9C looks like it will finish on 15.8C -0.5c below normal.

[damianslaw]

Yet another near average month on the cards and another one this year ending up below 81-10 average. Indeed it could end up below the 61-90 average. 2015 shaping up to be a much cooler year than 2014.

 

 

[Summer Sun]

16.1c to the 30th

 

0.3c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Confirmed as 15.9C

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

0.5C below the 81-10 average

0.1C above the 61-90 average

[reef]

Confirmed as 15.9C

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

 

0.5C below the 81-10 average

0.1C above the 61-90 average

 

 

The seasonal CET was also 15.27C, so 0.6C below the 1981-2010 average and actually the 5th coolest summer in the last 25 years.

 

Actually pretty similar temperature-wise to summer 2012 and cooler than 2008, 2009 and 2010.

[Costa Del Fal]

Why does the corrections always favour a downward adjustment than upwards?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Why does the corrections always favour a downward adjustment than upwards?

 

I'm guessing the biggest factor is the UHI. There has been the odd occasion when small upward adjustments have been made though.

I think we can all easily imagine the rants and conspiracy theories that would ensue if they regularly made upward corrections!

 

 

Here's the daily CET values, before and after corrections

 

 

Here's the actual corrections

 

 

The daily mean CET for the summer.

 

[Timmytour]

Mean CET wise, this year is running in a not too dissimilar fashion to 1974.

Would hate to see a continuance of that trend....I believe we ended up with the fifth warmest winter on record!

[Weather-history]

Last occasion two consecutive months had the same value I think were July and August 2008

[BornFromTheVoid]

Over the last 10 years, August CET has seen the least amount of variation compared to the other months, just varying between 14.9C and 16.9C, a 2C range.

 

Below is the range for all months in the last 10 years

 

January:   5.6C

Feb:          3.6C

March:      5.6C

April:         4.6C

May:         3.0C

June:        2.4C

July:          4.5C

August:     2.0C

Sept:         3.8C

October:   3.3C

Nov:          4.4C

Dec:          7.2C

 

Keep in mind, the summer months typically see the least amount of variation anyway.

[Relativistic]

I'm guessing the biggest factor is the UHI. There has been the odd occasion when small upward adjustments have been made though.

I think we can all easily imagine the rants and conspiracy theories that would ensue if they regularly made upward corrections!

 

 

I thought it was because the provisional figure was recorded using different stations that normally record CET values that are slightly higher than what the actual stations record. I'm sure there was some discussion on it a while ago.

[J10]

Results to follow over the next couple of days.

[Methuselah]

I thought it was because the provisional figure was recorded using different stations that normally record CET values that are slightly higher than what the actual stations record. I'm sure there was some discussion on it a while ago.

I think it's because the majority of thermometers are situated in built-up areas...Therefore, out-of-town readings need be taken into account?

[damianslaw]

Colder than 61-90 average, but only just... notable all the same. The trend of cool/average Augusts since 2006 continues..

[J10]

Results to follow over the next couple of days.

 Just gone through the monthly scores, and 4 got it spot on.

 

 summer blizzard, Stargazer, Weather-history and coldest winter and 39 got within 0.5c, over half of the 65 entries.

 

The full summer 2015 results together with the latest overall scores to follow tomorrow.

Edited September 1, 2015 by J10

[J10]

Results now in.

 

Monthly (confirmed from above) - 4 got it spot on - summer blizzard, Stargazer, Weather-history and coldest winter

 

Summer Result - simshady holds onto win with summer blizzard 2nd (up from 4th) DiagonalRedLine 3rd (up from 6th)

 

Overall - summer blizzard up to 1st (from 3rd) DiagonalRedLine 2nd (up from 4th) coldest winter 3rd (up from 5th)

 

August 2015 CET.pdf

August 2015 CET.xls

 

Stat Zone

 

Baseline (1981-2010)      16.4

Actual CET                       15.9

Average Entry                  15.9

Difference                          0.0

Correlation                       - 0.16

 

With the negative correlation showing that earlier entries did worse, with initial entries doing the worst by a margin.

Interestingly  the average entry was spot on, the cool previous summer months gave a negative prediction for August which turned out to be correct.

Edited September 2, 2015 by J10

[DAVID SNOW]

Results now in.

 

Monthly (confirmed from above) - 4 got it spot on - summer blizzard, Stargazer, Weather-history and coldest winter

 

Summer Result - simshady holds onto win with summer blizzard 2nd (up from 4th) DiagonalRedLine 3rd (up from 6th)

 

Overall - summer blizzard up to 1st (from 3rd) DiagonalRedLine 2nd (up from 4th) coldest winter 3rd (up from 5th)

 

 

+1 to your good self and Roger as always   Well done simshady!

[simshady]

+1 to your good self and Roger as always   Well done simshady!

 Cheers

[summer blizzard]

Glory to myself (for now).

Great update.

[Stargazer]

Many thanks to the organisers as always and pleased that one of my wild guesses has been right for a change

[damianslaw]

Third month this year with a 0.2 degree margin.. not bad, but I've also been well out on most other months notably July. Quietly confident I won't be quite so far off this month as it already looks like a notably mild one is out of the question.