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August 2015 CET forecasts

Roger J Smith
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

I think Roger posted that today is the 1981-2010 thermal maximum of summer with an average CET of 16.8C.

Since we've not reached that and the forecast keeps us lightly below, a cool second half could produce a fairly cool CET value.

 

Based on the 81-10 average, the highest daily CET value is on July 29th at 17.7C. The peak for August is the 5th with 17.3C.

 

However, the cumulative average for August begins to drop from it's peak of 17.0C (for the 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th) down to 16.9C for the 9th. It is a slow decline though, still being at 16.8C to the 22nd, before dropping another 0.4C in the final 9 days.

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Author
Posted

From the 1981-2010 data, the period when two-week (14 days) periods average 17.0 rounded off or higher happens to be 16-29 July, to 30 July-12 August. The average is 17.1 rounded off for two-week periods starting 18-31 July and ending 28 July-10 August. The absolute highest two-week average is 17.14 and that runs from 25 July to 7 August. This combined with the highest of all record highs falling near end of July and start of August tends to indicate that the peak of summer warmth is probably around the last week of July and first week of August.

 

Another measurement would be to compare the 1981-2010 CET values of July (16.7) and August (16.4) with any 31-day interval, and in that measure, the warmest "month" is 16.9 which, rounded off, applies from 6 July to 5 August, all the way to 22 July to 21 August. But the absolute highest just falls short of 17.0 as the three decimal value is 16.948 and that happens from 13 July to 12 August. The mid-date of that "month" is 28 July.

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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield 16.5C  -0.2C below average.

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

The minimum today is 12.4C while maxima look like reaching the mid 24s, so an increase to 16.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.7C to the 14th (17.8: +1.1]
16.5C to the 15th (14.2: -2.6)
16.4C to the 16th (13.6: -2.9)
16.3C to the 17th (15.4: -1.1)
16.3C to the 18th (16.7: +0.1)
16.4C to the 19th (17.7: +0.8]
16.5C to the 20th (18.5: +1.8]
16.6C to the 21st (17.9: +1.5)
16.6C to the 22nd (17.8: +1.3)
 
So the next 5 days look like averaging about 15.9C, about 0.6C below average, but then things warm up further out, with the next 5 days average 1.1C above average.
 
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Weather26 Accomplished

Weather26

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield
  • Location: Sheffield
Posted

 

The minimum today is 12.4C while maxima look like reaching the mid 24s, so an increase to 16.6C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.7C to the 14th (17.8: +1.1]
16.5C to the 15th (14.2: -2.6)
16.4C to the 16th (13.6: -2.9)
16.3C to the 17th (15.4: -1.1)
16.3C to the 18th (16.7: +0.1)
16.4C to the 19th (17.7: +0.8]
16.5C to the 20th (18.5: +1.8]
16.6C to the 21st (17.9: +1.5)
16.6C to the 22nd (17.8: +1.3)
 
So the next 5 days look like averaging about 15.9C, about 0.6C below average, but then things warm up further out, with the next 5 days average 1.1C above average.

 

Still time for it to go to pot through since we have a Bank Holiday Weekend at the end of the month.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

16.4c to the 14th

 

0.4c above the 61 to 90 average

 

0.4c below the 81 to 10 average

Edited by Summer Sun
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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

The minimum today is 10.5C, while maxima look like reaching into the 18s, so a drop to 16.3C is likely on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.1C to the 16th (13.3: -3.2)
16.0C to the 17th (15.4: -1.1)
16.1C to the 18th (16.3: -0.3)
16.0C to the 19th (15.9: -1.0)
16.1C to the 20th (17.4: +0.7)
16.2C to the 21st (17.4: +1.0)
16.3C to the 22nd (19.8: +3.3)
16.3C to the 23rd (16.3: +0.2)
16.3C to the 24th (15.3: -0.8]
 
A slightly cool 5 days coming up, averaging about 15.1C, or 1.5C below the 81-10 average.
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The PIT Maestro

The PIT

Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
Posted

Sunny Sheffield at 16.4C

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BornFromTheVoid Maestro

BornFromTheVoid

Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
Posted

Today's minimum is 11.5C, while maxima look like being close to 21C, so remaining on 16.1C on tomorrows update.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at:

 

16.1C to the 18th (16.0: -0.6)
16.1C to the 19th (17.1: +0.2)
16.2C to the 20th (18.1: +1.4)
16.3C to the 21st (18.5: +2.1)
16.4C to the 22nd (17.0: +0.5)
16.5C to the 23rd (18.1: +2.0)
16.6C to the 24th (20.6: +4.5) (Daily record high = 21.5C)
16.8C to the 25th (20.0: +4.3) (Daily record high = 20.9C)
16.9C to the 26th (19.8: +4.1)
 
Things look like warming up substantially in the final third of the month. The next 5 days should average close to 0.6C above average, with the following 5 days about 3.1C above average, and possibly threatening a few daily records.
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Relativistic Seasoned

Relativistic

Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
Posted

Interestingly, Piers Corbyn was quoted saying "August will be a mixed bag but the end will be great with very fine weather over the bank holiday period in most parts."

Maybe he'll be right.

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Milhouse Seasoned

Milhouse

Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
Posted

With some mild nights coming up i cant see it tbh.

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Lettucing Gutted Community Regular

Lettucing Gutted

Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
  • Weather Preferences: cold winters, cold springs, cold summers and cold autumns
  • Location: Yorkshire Puddin' aka Kirkham, Lancashire, England, United Kingdom
Posted

With some mild nights coming up i cant see it tbh.

Indeed, we might even finish in the 17s for the first time since 2004 ending a 10 year run of sub 17C Augusts, the longest run since 1960 through 1974.

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