Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Hmm... Chopping and changing begins

Screenshot_2015-08-11-19-01-52.png

Crikey, that is some serious rainfall there! 

 

I remember a setup like this at the end of July in 2002 when the commonwealth games were being held in Manchester, which was probably one of very few notable events that year. That really did bring a tremendous storm that zipped up from London area, flash flooded St Ives in Cambridgeshire, over Peterborough and then flooded RAF Waddington in Lincolnshire.

 

Quoting Kevin Bradshaw's video (WeatherHistory) 

[A.J]

been working so little chance to view the convective setup....just having a quick glance of the 12z NMM hi-res....it's going for elevated thunderstorms pushing up from France in conjunction with plume destablization in the early hours of thursday morning, which push steadily north, weakening as they do as the moisture profiles become saturated within this band of ppn ...quite a high degrees of DLS which will help organize storms that do develop.....my interest (for southern and central counties) in thursday afternoon is that although the 12z NMM only runs to midday thursday, it does infer a SBCAPE build up with quite a lot of shear and hints of more broken cloud cover pushing in from the English Channel....ingredients for the potential for some lively surface based storms in these regions.......Then thursday night and into friday, the prospect of more torrential rainfall with embedded storms pushing up from France

Edited August 11, 2015 by ajpoolshark

[DavidHamble57]

I heard a few rumbles of thunder earlier and its light raining. It is bin day here as well though today so that could be what I heard.

[Singularity]

Features of particular interest late Wed- middle of Fri:

 

 

Firstly, some intense elevated thunderstorms later on Wednesday night, taking advantage of decent mid level CAPE. They are packing a bit more of a punch on this NMM run compared to the past few.

 

Storm helicity with those looks troubling - some rotation seems possible, but this does tend to be limited when it's elevated storms you're talking about (at least I hope that's the case... this predicted helicity covers the atmosphere up to 3km ASL and is even higher for the 0-1km range in isolation, at nearly 600).

 

Following this is a window for surface heating and some surface based thunderstorms, but the models show little agreement on this aspect and for the most part don't seem all that keen on it this evening.

 

 

Then, overnight into Friday:

 

 

Something monstrous from NE France? I wouldn't normally take this too seriously at this range, but GFS also has an intense feature moving up from the SE. Something to keep a close eye on!

 

This then merges with a frontal boundary as it becomes very active yet slow moving across central parts of the UK. This feature's position has shifted east a bit when compared with the previous few model runs. A similar trend is seen with GFS.

 

 

The net totals by noon Friday are striking and bear remarkable similarity to the GFS output for the same period:

 

...though, as usual with NMM, the totals are that bit more extreme. 150mm in the vicinity of Reading... ouch. Thankfully, this model is well known for overdoing the rain rates in these situations, the actual values often not far off half of those predicted! 

[William Grimsley]

No more chart watching for me now, it's all about the nowcasting, nowcasting, nowcasting not the money, money, money, Karyo? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Seriously **** off British weather. Two days of decent storms quite clearly roaring over Surrey in the middle of our holiday to the Med.

To top it off nothing stormy here at all... Lovely hot sunny weather which is all fine and dandy - but seriously - it is literally as if all storms are drifting around me. Aaarrrrghh! This happened last time I was in France too... So annoying!

I know for A FACT that all of you back in the Home Counties are gonna have some amazing storms - and unlike every storm so far this year - Guildford and Godalming are gonna get hammered!!!

SO ANNOYING!!!!

Edit: I know you haven't had storms yet - I'm referring to the forecast which shows 80+ percent storm chance thurs and decent odds for Friday.

Edited August 11, 2015 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Cableguy]

Seriously **** off British weather. Two days of decent storms quite clearly roaring over Surrey in the middle of our holiday to the Med.

To top it off nothing stormy here at all... Lovely hot sunny weather which is all fine and dandy - but seriously - it is literally as if all storms are drifting around me. Aaarrrrghh! This happened last time I was in France too... So annoying!

I know for A FACT that all of you back in the Home Counties are gonna have some amazing storms - and unlike every storm so far this year - Guildford and Godalming are gonna get hammered!!!

SO ANNOYING!!!!

Edit: I know you haven't had storms yet - I'm referring to the forecast which shows 80+ percent storm chance thurs and decent odds for Friday.

Rest assured they'll probably evade us here in Surrey like they normally do! Would gladly swap for hot/sunny weather, been miserable here today despite forecasters saying it was going to be the best day of the week!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Seriously **** off British weather. Two days of decent storms quite clearly roaring over Surrey in the middle of our holiday to the Med.

To top it off nothing stormy here at all... Lovely hot sunny weather which is all fine and dandy - but seriously - it is literally as if all storms are drifting around me. Aaarrrrghh! This happened last time I was in France too... So annoying!

I know for A FACT that all of you back in the Home Counties are gonna have some amazing storms - and unlike every storm so far this year - Guildford and Godalming are gonna get hammered!!!

SO ANNOYING!!!!

Edit: I know you haven't had storms yet - I'm referring to the forecast which shows 80+ percent storm chance thurs and decent odds for Friday.

Why I don't go away I'm like a storm hermit hahaha

No I have had that before seriously annoying!! Looking juicy so far though (if servere weather is your thing)

[Thunderbolt_]

Seriously **** off British weather. Two days of decent storms quite clearly roaring over Surrey in the middle of our holiday to the Med.

To top it off nothing stormy here at all... Lovely hot sunny weather which is all fine and dandy - but seriously - it is literally as if all storms are drifting around me. Aaarrrrghh! This happened last time I was in France too... So annoying!

I know for A FACT that all of you back in the Home Counties are gonna have some amazing storms - and unlike every storm so far this year - Guildford and Godalming are gonna get hammered!!!

SO ANNOYING!!!!

Edit: I know you haven't had storms yet - I'm referring to the forecast which shows 80+ percent storm chance thurs and decent odds for Friday.

 

Without sounding like I'm bragging, now you know how I felt last year, watching them all die out just as the got to Manchester or take a left turn towards Merseyside. Luckily I've done much better this year.

[William Grimsley]

Without sounding like I'm bragging, now you know how I felt last year, watching them all die out just as the got to Manchester or take a left turn towards Merseyside. Luckily I've done much better this year.

It's the other way around for me. Last year was the best thunderstorm year I've ever witnessed here!

[Thunderbolt_]

It's the other way around for me. Last year was the best thunderstorm year I've ever witnessed here!

 

The only "thunderstorm" I got last year was on 19 July (and by thunderstorm, I mean decent amounts of lightning and thunder, not one rumble and that's it.). The second best one was then in December, can you believe.

 

[Chris K]

Well I'm looking forward to see how this pans out...but with previous occurrences ending up 50-200 miles away compared to the model outputs, or not happenning at all, I won't get excited until I see lightning above my head. Bristol seems to be a storm killer.

[Chris.R]

Last year here was the best for storms in around a decade; This year however has been diabolical beyond words for any sort of weather extreme or even anything out of the ordinary. Just benign cloud, drizzle, And inhibiting Werly/nwerly winds.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Seriously **** off British weather. Two days of decent storms quite clearly roaring over Surrey in the middle of our holiday to the Med.

To top it off nothing stormy here at all... Lovely hot sunny weather which is all fine and dandy - but seriously - it is literally as if all storms are drifting around me. Aaarrrrghh! This happened last time I was in France too... So annoying!

I know for A FACT that all of you back in the Home Counties are gonna have some amazing storms - and unlike every storm so far this year - Guildford and Godalming are gonna get hammered!!!

SO ANNOYING!!!!

Edit: I know you haven't had storms yet - I'm referring to the forecast which shows 80+ percent storm chance thurs and decent odds for Friday.

This is why i always head to the med for September time. Best time for them there bud. Been in August before only to be told about thunder at home! Whereas Ibiza in September 2013, I saw numerous storms, one of which was clear cut +CG's spitting out infront of the clear starry sky! Suits everyone going in September as its still hot, but with storms like that

[Nouska]

GFS 12z bring the deluge further east across Oxford & Reading, really worrying! 

 

Such a divergence between different models but look at the ECM EPS for Reading - huge difference in rainfall totals between the op and control at just 60 hours out.

 

[Darren Bown]

I'm going to Reading (Tadley), Wednesday through to Friday for work, I could be in a good spot here?

In fact, I'm staying at the Reading Lakes hotel, which was flooded badly in the Winter of 2012/2013, so I'm hoping it doesn't rain too much!

Edited August 11, 2015 by Darren Bown

[IanR]

I'm going to Reading (Tadley), Wednesday through to Friday for work, I could be in a good spot here?

In fact, I'm staying at the Reading Lakes hotel, which was flooded badly in the Winter of 2012/2013, so I'm hoping it doesn't rain too much!

its good bet you have a much much better chance there than staying in  merseyside

[Vestan]

Im driving on Friday from W Oxfordshire to Bournemouth

Could be an interesting one. Knowing my luck both locations will get storms and I will miss them at both ends!  Trying to use the forecasts to work out when is the best time to leave in the morning, The current answer appears to be - 'stay at home'!

[Rain123]

I'm hearing different things about these storms, embedded storms, thundery rain, the apocalypse. Which one should I believe?!

[weathergeek]

Camping in the New Forest until Saturday Tad scared!!

Edited August 12, 2015 by weathergeek

[Rain123]

Camping in the New Forest until Saturday Tad scared!!

Oh dear. Well, erm, good luck.

[Kiwi]

I'm going to Reading (Tadley), Wednesday through to Friday for work, I could be in a good spot here?

In fact, I'm staying at the Reading Lakes hotel, which was flooded badly in the Winter of 2012/2013, so I'm hoping it doesn't rain too much!

Hi Darren, yes hopefully a sweet spot here.

 

I don't know the Reading Lakes Hotel, but we've had several significant flooding issues around here over the years. Aldermaston village, just outside Tadley, is prone. More seriously, I see that AWE Burghfield have a planning application in for a flood defence scheme following previous serious flooding and regular problems every time we have exceptional rainfall...... More than a tad worrying as that's where they assemble/maintain Trident nuclear warheads........Hopefully the only big bangs around here on Thur and Fri will be the thunder!!

[cjwardy]

Camping in the New Forest until Saturday Tad scared!!

Best of luck! Pitching is gonna be essential

[Summer Sun]

In the space of 12 hours Oxfordshire has gone from 80mm to 110mm of rain to 12mm to 20mm

 

 

NMM's take on Friday and it gets going very early

 

 

By late afternoon on Friday most parts of England and wales could start and see the showery activity easing down

 

 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

In the space of 12 hours Oxfordshire has gone from 80mm to 110mm of rain to 12mm to 20mm

 

 

 

NMM's take on Friday and it gets going very early

 

 

 

By late afternoon on Friday most parts of England and wales could start and see the showery activity easing down

 

 

 

This is different to what the EURO 4 wants and the GFS lol!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Although not to dissimilar ..