Storm & Convective Discussion - 16/07/15 onwards

[sparky1972]

I would say I am in with a good chance of seeing some action tonight :-) that's brilliant because us in Lincolnshire always miss out .........*dons crash helmet*

love it, lol.   i think you have a better chance than us down here, the grahics and forecasts i have seen just have light rain

[A.J]

you can tell that things have downgraded according to the models  , not by the posts in here but by the lack of them

I disagree to be honest....all the respected forecasters and posters are quite bullish about tonight......I think that the lack of posts at this time is probably more to with members working than anything else. I appreciate your own anxiety about storms so hopefully you won't see anything tonight, but I feel plenty other folk will see something tonight

[Harry]

I'm not criticizing anyone here but models should not be discounted just because they don't show preferred outcomes

 

 

edit - seems to a be a focus of storms more across E/SE areas from late evening onwards met office only has light rain in early hours for my area

 

You have however quoted my post, which leaves me suspecting that you might criticising me for preferred outcomes....

 

I'm basing my model preference on the performance of both models in the run up to the event two weeks ago, which were extremely similar synoptic setups to this evening. GFS/NMM5 pretty much nailed it, while Euro4 and UKMO (for much of the time in respect of the latter) were hopelessly wrong. Therefore, I am tending to favour these two models. However, there are marginal differences between the two currently - the GFS preferring a large swathe of C/S and particularly SE England, while NMM5 tending to prefer areas slightly further west than GFS and keeping convective precip more discreet. 

[Gordon Webb]

Meteo Group "While not as potent as the setup we saw the Friday before last

The area of the UK most likely to see thunderstorms and quite frequent lightning is across the SE quarter, between 19:00 today and 02:00 on Friday morning. Gusty winds and hail may accompany a few of the storms."

Another one moving the risk more e/se joining the rest

[alibabba]

love it, lol.   i think you have a better chance than us down here, the grahics and forecasts i have seen just have light rain

Met office has us for just rain but netweather plumping for 72% chance of storms in early hours. Obviously I am plumping for them lol. Think the sea air kills most storms off here so fingers crossed we can get a good one tonight

[Gordon Webb]

You have however quoted my post, which leaves me suspecting that you might criticising me for preferred outcomes....

I'm basing my model preference on the performance of both models in the run up to the event two weeks ago, which were extremely similar synoptic setups to this evening. GFS/NMM5 pretty much nailed it, while Euro4 and UKMO (for much of the time in respect of the latter) were hopelessly wrong. Therefore, I am tending to favour these two models. However, there are marginal differences between the two currently - the GFS preferring a large swathe of C/S and particularly SE England, while NMM5 tending to prefer areas slightly further west than GFS and keeping convective precip more discreet.

I thought you might take that personally it was not my intention to offend and I apologise if I have done so and also for using you post as it does seem I was aiming it at you which is something I was not intending to do

Edited July 16, 2015 by Gordon Webb

[sparky1972]

Met office has us for just rain but netweather plumping for 72% chance of storms in early hours. Obviously I am plumping for them lol. Think the sea air kills most storms off here so fingers crossed we can get a good one tonight

fingers crossed, would be good to have another decent storm, camera at the ready, lol

[VillagePlank]

My SE forecast

 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83478-southeast-england-east-anglia-weather-chatjuly-1st-2015/page-35#entry3234862

[Homerr]

I'm cautiously optomistic - the relative quietness of this forum compared to last week has me feeling a little confident to be honest

 

Currently forecasted to be either right in it, or very much just outside of it. Estofex are having a laugh though aren't they

[Winter Cold]

Its a case of just wait and see isnt it I think tonight. Get the radar on from 8pm or so and keep looking until about 2-3am lol. Hmmm why does that sound familiar lol.........

 

I hope we get a similar setup to the 3rd July as overnight the storms were in a big line going north werent they and most ppl who wanted something got it! We shall see

[Spikecollie]

I'm cautiously optomistic - the relative quietness of this forum compared to last week has me feeling a little confident to be honest

 

Currently forecasted to be either right in it, or very much just outside of it. Estofex are having a laugh though aren't they

I doubt if ESTOFEX are having a laugh. They issued a Level 2 for N. England for July 1 and were spot on with their forecast of large hail and severe wind gusts and were spot on! On many other occasions on both sides of the channel their forecasts have been very accurate. Those guys know what they are talking about.

[WeatherWatchmanG]

I think everyone should just wait and see we afterall have live models and radar to look forward to tracking tonight, no need for speculation.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Oi kids! Calm your tits!

 

The models are a meer guidance I say this every time! The people that may miss out could get plastered and visa versa.

 

Enjoy the warmth, get the beers out, fire the BBQ up and wait. Simpels. 

[Buckster]

I doubt if ESTOFEX are having a laugh. They issued a Level 2 for N. England for July 1 and were spot on with their forecast of large hail and severe wind gusts and were spot on! On many other occasions on both sides of the channel their forecasts have been very accurate. Those guys know what they are talking about.

 

agreed - of course they're not going to arbitrarily stick a Level 2 over the S-East

 

they'll have carefully considered it - and like you said from past experience they are often spot on

[Homerr]

I didn't mean to inflame the situation - but the 1st of July if I remember correctly a big chunk of the SW/C had a level 2 on it and nothing materialised, but I could be wrong.

 

It just seems a little unlikely... but this is why I am being a little bit cautiously optimistic as when we've all got ourselves worked into a proper lather previously, it's been a total bust.

 

Warming up nicely over Watford at the moment

[tomp456]

If we get anything here then I'll be buying everyone whatever they want out of the lottery money I'm winning Saturday.

In two minds...to charge cameras or not?!

Edited July 16, 2015 by tomp456

[Harry]

If we get anything here then I'll be buying everyone whatever they want out of the lottery money I'm winning Saturday.

In two minds...to charge cameras or not?!

 

Charge it anyway - what's the harm?? I charged mine last night just in case.

[cotswoldsnow]

Charge it anyway - what's the harm?? I charged mine last night just in case.

i changed mine too! just in case

[stainesbloke]

If we get anything here then I'll be buying everyone whatever they want out of the lottery money I'm winning Saturday.

In two minds...to charge cameras or not?!

Hehe...though an Estofex level 2 is out covering our region so somewhere will likely see something half decent. It'll be isolated rather than widespread IMHO. If this cloud/fog/clag/crap moves off then all the better. Charge the cams up, if you don't then you know you'll miss that supercell smashing through Sussex later.......

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Hehe...though an Estofex level 2 is out covering our region so somewhere will likely see something half decent. It'll be isolated rather than widespread IMHO. If this cloud/fog/clag/crap moves off then all the better. Charge the cams up, if you don't then you know you'll miss that supercell smashing through Sussex later.......

 

Dude... The cloud now don't matter.. It will be dark when the storms come.. 

[alexisj9]

I'm cautiously optomistic - the relative quietness of this forum compared to last week has me feeling a little confident to be honest

 

Currently forecasted to be either right in it, or very much just outside of it. Estofex are having a laugh though aren't they

I hope so.

[NUT]

Don't think there be any storms up here tonight (although possible who knows) the heavy rain might well be a issue though

[stainesbloke]

Dude... The cloud now don't matter.. It will be dark when the storms come.. 

Yes but some hot sun will really help elevate the storm potential...the hot clear air is moving across the channel towards us now :-)

[Thunderbolt_]

Pretty much clear skies here in Manchester at the moment. No sign of any convection as of now. I just hope that the mid-level clag which is forecasted for this afternoon will be delayed a bit, to help the storm potential.

[Harry]

Cloud cover is irrelevant for eastern areas, unless you are specifically praying for severe and/or surface based convective weather.

 

It is more critical further west however where MUCAPE is marginal at best, but GFS (for example) has been pointing towards some modest SBCAPE to develop later this afternoon. So, if you're in the west I'd be more worried about cloud cover/heating than if you're further east, where it is irrelevant