eastern pacific Major Hurricane Dolores

[Somerset Squall]

Yet another Pacific tropical cyclone formed yesterday just off the coast of southern Mexico, south of Acapulco, and has since strengthened into Tropical Storm Dolores, the fourth named storm of the Eastern Pacific season. Winds are currently at 45kts. The storm has a large mass of very deep convection over the LLCC. Moderate shear is slightly displacing the mass to the northern quadrant of the storm however. Despite this Dolores is expected to strengthen due to warm waters and good outflow. When shear does lessen in a couple of days, even faster intensification is expected. Dolores is expected to become a major hurricane by day 5. A typical west-northwest track is expected, which should keep Dolores offshore, unlike what we saw with Blanca and Carlos.

Edited July 12, 2015 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Dolores has strengthened to 55kts. Shear is easing, and with warm waters and a very moist environment ahead for Dolores, significant intensifiction is expected, and NHC forecast Dolores to become a major hurricane. A typical west-northwest track is still expected as ridging over Mexico remains the dominant steering force. This will keep Dolores off the coast of Mexico, though the northern bands of Dolores have been drenching parts of Southern Mexico over the last day.

 

 

 

 

[Somerset Squall]

Dolores became a hurricane last night, and has since strengthened to 75kts. The hurricane is forecast to continue to strengthen for the next 48hrs before moving into a more unfavourable environment.

[Somerset Squall]

Dolores has rapidly strengthened to 115kts, a category 4 Major Hurricane. Dolores has about another 24hrs to strengthen before conditions deteriorate. The eye has cleared out nicely, but the CDO is slightly lopsided with the convection quite thin on the north side of the eye.

[Somerset Squall]

Powerful Dolores very near Soccorro Island as shown in this image:

[Somerset Squall]

Dolores is weakening, with winds down to 90kts cat 2 on the SS scale. Gradual weakening is expected to continue as the hurricane moves over cooler water and continues to ingest dry air. Shear will eventually increase, which will cause faster weakening beyond 36hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Dolores has degenerated into a remnant low as it has been largely convectionless for the last 18hrs. Moisture associated with Dolores is enhancing rainfall across the SW USA however.