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Autumn 2015


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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

I see the UKMO model is intensifying the cold SST anomaly by winter time. Sea will cool anyway but that's a big anomaly from normal winter condition.

 

aymEYwc.png

I am sure I read that Knocker produced a chart showing SSTs becoming more even towards winter.

Just goes to show, computers churn it out and churn it out and by the time it is reality its normally something different.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington, County Durham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it and sunny crisp days
  • Location: Darlington, County Durham

Looking forward to autumn now, still light enough on a night and morning not to feel too depressing, but like cooler nights with warm ish days bring on autumn 2015

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

I am sure I read that Knocker produced a chart showing SSTs becoming more even towards winter.

Just goes to show, computers churn it out and churn it out and by the time it is reality its normally something different.

Yes, I think it was an average of the July CFS runs for October and another for April 2016 showing a reversal of the current negative anomaly. Who knows?

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Posted
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: heat and cold, storms and blizzards...zonal a no no
  • Location: Ripon , North Yorkshire 41m/135ft ASL

Hi Guys, 

I`m a bit confuzzled and need some help with the following questions

 

Im familiar with the AMDO ( Atlantic multi decadal occilation) whereby it is sometimes a cold atlantic and sometimes warm. Currently the atlantic is cooler than of recent past years... then its warmer further south you go, then cooler. hence a projected quiet hurricane season ( perhaps Danny wont make it but far too early to say at the mo ) 

 

if a tripole is cold, warm cold . what is warm, cold, warm or have i got that the right way around. what does that mean for western europe over autumn and dare i ask into winter during an el-nino year ? 

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

Now I'm not one for autumn or winter unless there is a proper snowfall to make things interesting and pretty. Otherwise I hate the cold.

However just reading around the autumn/winter prospects for the U.S. By Accuweather, they seem fairly confident that the North East States will not see the brutal cold of the last couple of years. See here: http://m.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2015-us-fall-forecast-winter-preview/51471589

Now whilst cold there doesn't mean we cannot be cold either, but I think we have definitely seen how deep cold spilling out of Canada in that region can seem to fuel the jet stream to no end. Perhaps if accuweathers forecast ends up near the mark, the jet stream may not relieve quite the impetus it has had in recent years this perhaps there is scope for weaker but more southerly tracking lows this end of the pond?

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Not long now until the weather presenters start telling us about frosts in the 'remote glens of Scotland' 

 

Meanwhile, El Nino > http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/paulhudson/entries/fee32445-15c0-4d2c-9423-1a1281c8fd37

They have been saying that all summer! :rofl:

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

Although this thread is about Autumn 2015, which is just around the corner, I believe i've heard on this site that September 1986 produced some very low minimas with severe frosts. Can't imagine September delivering such low temperatures but if this is true it just goes to show what that month is capable of and I would love 2015 to be a repeat. Not that I'm realistically expecting it mind. But I suppose it's not impossible, after all March can be almost summery aka. March 2012 so I suppose there's no reason why September can't be almost wintery in extreme circumstances. Not really bothered what Autumn's like though as long as we get a cold and snowy Winter 2015/2016 afterwards to make up for the appalling Winters (if your a cold and snow lover) of 2013/2014 and 2014/2015.

Edited by WALSALL SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

This morning felt very Autumnal: there was the feeling of that mild Atlantic air that hits you as you walk out the door during a depression; thick, grey clouds rapidly rolling over above; the wind blowing and rustling the leaves in the trees; light spits of rain every now and then being carried in the wind; completed by dim, Autumnal light levels.

I'm truly excited now for the most underrated season there is.

Edited by 22nov10blast
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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

Autumn's a great season if you get the right synoptics. Cool, dry northerly flows make for crisp sunny days, clear nights, morning mists, and vivid displays of colour. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

Would love to see some northern blocking over the course of the autumn. A nice crisp cool and mostly dry autumn is what i would like. We have had far too many above average autumns in recent years anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Surface air temp anomlay from JAMSTEC shows average to slightly above average temps for southern parts the north and Ireland looks slightly below average

 

temp2.glob.SON2015.1aug2015.gif

 

Rainfall slightly above average for just about all parts

 

tprep.glob.SON2015.1aug2015.gif

 

A sneak peak at winter shows only the UK / Ireland and France slightly below average for temps all other parts of Europe are above average

 

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1aug2015.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

The 06z GFS (albeit outside of the reliable time frame) has September starting off quite chilly with minima in the low single figures for parts Scotland, northern England, Wales and Ireland.

The CET region would be quite cool too, averaging below 13C by the 4th.

Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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Posted
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL
  • Location: Slovenia, Central Europe 1050m ASL

As far as the Atlantic discussions go, there is one thing to consider on a more longer term. The negative AMO phase is supposed to be induced also from below as much as from above if i remember correctly (writing this in a hurry).

Comparing the Atlantic sub-surface temperatures, in this case at 150m, from August back to January, it actually shows that north Atlantic subsurface waters have further cooled, with the exception of the warm gulf stream which is expected to warm seasonally.

 

votemper-in-meto20aug-2.png

 

And comparing August sub-surface temperatures to the 2009-2014 August mean, we actually get the more classic looking -AMO "pendant" or horseshoe.

 

votemper-in-meto-glo-phy.png

 

 

Data is from GLOSEA5 analysis on a 0.25° grid. The 09-14 August mean is derived from the ECMWF ORAS4 reanalysis.

Edited by Recretos
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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

Surface air temp anomlay from JAMSTEC shows average to slightly above average temps for southern parts the north and Ireland looks slightly below average

temp2.glob.SON2015.1aug2015.gif

Rainfall slightly above average for just about all parts

tprep.glob.SON2015.1aug2015.gif

A sneak peak at winter shows only the UK / Ireland and France slightly below average for temps all other parts of Europe are above average

temp2.glob.DJF2016.1aug2015.gif

See jamstec is predicting another below average Winter for the eastern USA again. Disappointed they're predicting above average for western Europe, with the exception of us. This may be ok for Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England providing there are northerly outbreaks or polar north westerlies, but for the Midlands, most of Wales and the South of England I'd rather see a below average continent to boost chances in those areas from potential easterlies/ north easterlies. Don't like the look of above average temps in Scandinavia and most of northern Eurasia either. Still Winter doesn't start for another 3 months and ends in 6 (7 if we are lucky enough to get a similar March to 2013), so could be very wrong. Is this much of a reliable model at that range anyway? Edited by WALSALL SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

See jamstec is predicting another below average Winter for the eastern USA again. Disappointed they're predicting above average for western Europe, with the exception of us. This may be ok for Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England providing there are northerly outbreaks or polar north westerlies, but for the Midlands, most of Wales and the South of England I'd rather see a below average continent to boost chances in those areas from potential easterlies/ north easterlies. Don't like the look of above average temps in Scandinavia and most of northern Eurasia either. Still Winter doesn't start for another 3 months and ends in 6, so could be very wrong. Is this much of a reliable model at that range anyway?

I would take a guess the lower temps for the UK is purely down to a westerly/north westerly flow over the colder than usual SSTs in the Atlantic. They keep the anomaly for the winter months.

 

EyUmINb.gif

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/e/seasonal/outlook.html

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Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall

See jamstec is predicting another below average Winter for the eastern USA again. Disappointed they're predicting above average for western Europe, with the exception of us. This may be ok for Scotland, Northern Ireland and the north of England providing there are northerly outbreaks or polar north westerlies, but for the Midlands, most of Wales and the South of England I'd rather see a below average continent to boost chances in those areas from potential easterlies/ north easterlies. Don't like the look of above average temps in Scandinavia and most of northern Eurasia either. Still Winter doesn't start for another 3 months and ends in 6 (7 if we are lucky enough to get a similar March to 2013), so could be very wrong. Is this much of a reliable model at that range anyway?

But the negative anomaly doesn't extend into Canada where obviously their cold Comes from. Surely even in Canada they must have been below average in the last couple of winters with exceptional cold. Seems to me with my post the other day re: accuweathers view that this winter at least should not be so harsh or cold there.

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/europe-fall-forecast-heat-ling/52002792

 

Seasonable Start to be Followed by Storms in British Isles, Northwestern Europe

The British Isles escaped the heat for much of the summer as rounds of intense heat traveled from Spain into France then eastward into central and eastern Europe.

Heat will remain to the east across central and eastern Europe during the early fall, keeping near- to slightly below-normal temperatures across Ireland and the United Kingdom with a cooling northwest flow from the Atlantic being the dominate pattern.

Meanwhile, areas from Paris to Amsterdam can expect a typical fall season with brief pulses of warmth that will be erased by a cooler northwest flow after only a day or two.

During November, the large ridge over central and eastern Europe will weaken and open the door for storm systems to enter northern Europe.

Strengthening storms from the Atlantic Ocean will bring the threat for damaging winds to Ireland, the United Kingdom, northern France, Belgium and the Netherlands during late October into November. This pattern is expected to continue into early winter when several powerful wind storms will cross northwestern Europe.

 

post-20849-0-36122200-1440625523_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

Storms later on, that's a good sign. :)

As long as those storms give way to deep cold like in 2009/10 and don't continue all Winter like in 2013/14. Or if those storms transform into the cold with heavy driving blizzards variety. That would be brilliant.

Edited by WALSALL SNOW
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Posted
  • Location: North of Sheffield
  • Location: North of Sheffield

It feels like Autumn is now on the way.

I had a drive over the Strines moors to the west of Sheffield with the heather in its full glory.

There are signs of some leaves changing with a maple in the garden showing red tinges on the leaf tips.

 

It feels like we have had a little more sun recently and hopefully this will help to create a great colourful autumn.

Lets save the storms for late autumn.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

I want September and October to feature quite a lot of high pressure and sunshine to take advantage of the available warmth before it fizzles out. There would also be a few long-drawn southerlies to give some autumn thunderstorms and brief bursts of summer heat. Then in November the Atlantic can fire up, giving some very mild and stormy days.

 

That would be the perfect autumn - nice and warm.

 

My appetite for a good raging SW gale and storms increases as we get to November too. Once the trees have lost their leaves, one of my favourite aspects of winter (of which there arent that many) is a nice mildish brisk wind greeting me in the morning. Really does feel invigorating without being too cold that it freezes me.

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

My appetite for a good raging SW gale and storms increases as we get to November too. Once the trees have lost their leaves, one of my favourite aspects of winter (of which there arent that many) is a nice mildish brisk wind greeting me in the morning. Really does feel invigorating without being too cold that it freezes me.

Have a feeling that this Autumn is going to be rather stormy! I'd love some warm and sunny weather before that as I really don't enjoy extended cold. The later Winter starts and the sooner Spring arrives, the better, though a week/fortnight freeze late January would be fun.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Ugh, no stormy weather please. A nice area of high pressure leading to those familiar frosty autumn nights and leading to beautiful sunny days would be just great.

A very cold winter would be nice, but if we can't get cold, just give us a 1998 repeat and please keep Atlantic storms at a minimum.

Edited by cheese
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