Autumn 2015

[feb1991blizzard]

The thing is we can all find reasons to be positive about different factors leading into autumn , last year for example , we had everything bar low solar energy . We had -QBO , El Niño , - OPI , but last year it really all went wrong . What caused it ? The most obvious been dominant low pressure over northern Russian when thought it would be high pressure , that in turn stopped warm air been pumped up into the polar regions , we had another cold winter in the states ( I no that's debatable but extreme cold flooded central and eastern areas at times ). Which we no gave us another strong jet stream , we had zero blocking to our north because of this .

This year we don't no much at this stage apart from 2 maybe 3 things : strong El Niño all but guaranteed , a cold pool of water in the northern Atlantic , and a +QBO , so we may have an idea , does that increase the likely hood of SSW ? Figures suggest but who knows ? Does strong El Niño mean severe weather more likely ? Maybe but in what ways , we don't no !

Either way I can't wait , lol , going to Turkey mid October good timing keep me away from this addiction I have for a while ! Then get back and nearly November ! Roll on crisp days , cob webs , frosts , wine and log fires !!!

 

 

Not sure we are pointing towards anything decent this winter, mind you, I predicted a decent winter the last 2, what possessed me to do so in 13-14 god only knows but last year most expert expected a decent one so maybe me going mild this year will do the trick, my forecasting has been absolutely diabolical for a good while now!

Are people doing you any harm by looking forward to Autumn?

 

If you don't want to discuss or think about a season which you don't like, don't visit the relevant thread. It's quite simple.

 

I totally agree with that but if I start a winter thread then I am doing no harm but it will get taken down straight away by you.

[snowgirl30]

Autumn is one of my favourite seasons, best when cool on a night and warm during the day with a few frosts.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I like autumn when it's warm and settled. There is nothing like warm and sunshine catching off of the autumn leaves. The longer we can hold off on Atlantic storms the better. September 2014 was lovely for that reason... it offered so much useable weather, as opposed to the miserably cold and dull autumns, like 2012 that just drag on for ever and ever.

 

yes, I want warm and settled, not wet, but where I live its seems always wet, but by 2nd half of Nov is when the Atlantic gets going full power and lasts for 4 months, make the most of fleeting dry windows

[cheeky_monkey]

im expecting a warm dry September followed by a fairly average Oct and a relatively mild November...looking on into Winter im expecting it to be very mild and wet. 

[Mokidugway]

Will we even notice the difference ??.......

[Stuart]

I think it a bit early talking about  Autumn

[Weather-history]

 

I totally agree with that but if I start a winter thread then I am doing no harm but it will get taken down straight away by you.

That's because there is a season between now and winter, autumn. It's too early to think about winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

^^   The most boring season weather wise, even the Met Office used the SST temperature for May as a pointer in their detailed forecast last year so its not too early to be talking about it, of course its too early to be making bold statements though.

[Polar Maritime]

This thread is open for any thoughts/hopes/signals for the up-coming Autumn, It is not a 'Winter' thread, Or a thread to discuss personal seasonal preferences.

 

That aside, I'm hoping for a very stormy and mild Autumn.

[Nick L]

The winter thread will be open at around the start of October (approximately 2 months before the start of the season, like this thread, and the summer thread before it). No meaningful discussion can be had about it yet so there's little point in opening the thread. Whereas Autumn is coming into the range of several models.

 

Let's end this now please and get back to the topic in hand.

Edited July 13, 2015 by Nick L

[Paul]

^^   The most boring season weather wise, even the Met Office used the SST temperature for May as a pointer in their detailed forecast last year so its not too early to be talking about it, of course its too early to be making bold statements though.

 

If you don't want to talk about Autumn, then don't, but don't ruin this thread for those who do by using it to spout and whine. 

[Weather-history]

^^   The most boring season weather wise, even the Met Office used the SST temperature for May as a pointer in their detailed forecast last year so its not too early to be talking about it, of course its too early to be making bold statements though.

Boring or not, it's not an excuse for a weather community to ignore. A true weather enthusiast is someone who watches, studies etc the weather all year. Weather is all year, there are too many who seem to be drugged on winter. They are IMO not true weather enthusiasts.

As for the Met Office using those May SSTs baffle me. Why a specific 31 day period may have some influence on a specific 90 day period with a 183 day interval between, I just don't get.

[lassie23]

The winter thread will be open at around the start of October (approximately 2 months before the start of the season, like this thread, and the summer thread before it). No meaningful discussion can be had about it yet so there's little point in opening the thread. Whereas Autumn is coming into the range of several models.

 

Let's end this now please and get back to the topic in hand.

I know it is early days, but just out of interest, what are those models hinitng at for this coming Autumn?

[feb1991blizzard]

Boring or not, it's not an excuse for a weather community to ignore. A true weather enthusiast is someone who watches, studies etc the weather all year. Weather is all year, there are too many who seem to be drugged on winter. They are IMO not true weather enthusiasts.

As for the Met Office using those May SSTs baffle me. Why a specific 31 day period may have some influence on a specific 90 day period with a 183 day interval between, I just don't get.

 

Totally agree on both points believe it or not, the second one I couldn't put it better myself although everyone defends the met and say they are the best in the world so there must be some validity in it, I have never said I am a sun or summer enthusiast, I am snow and cold enthusiast and don't dress it up any other way.

[feb1991blizzard]

I know it is early days, but just out of interest, what are those models hinitng at for this coming Autumn?

 

This.

 

[Jimmyh]

Feb blizzard if that came to fruition that would be mighty cold as a lobe of pv would be on the move and in a position where it was seldom ever seen last year through out autumn and winter. Mmm bring it on

[feb1991blizzard]

Feb blizzard if that came to fruition that would be mighty cold as a lobe of pv would be on the move and in a position where it was seldom ever seen last year through out autumn and winter. Mmm bring it on

 

Yes that would only be bettered by 2010 in my lifetime - unfortunately it wont come  to fruition!

[DR(S)NO]

Yes that would only be bettered by 2010 in my lifetime - unfortunately it wont come  to fruition!

As most folk probably said pre 2010....

You just never know with the weather.....

It seems weird talking about Autumn when I've yet to have any Summer weather of note but I would so like to have some seasonal Autumn weather....

For it to gently ease in ....some beautiful early Autumn warmth but with knowledge that frost isn't far away......as nights draw in give me some proper Autumn storminess and let this later give way to the first touches on the Winter to come...

That'll do me fine..

[MP-R]

Boring or not, it's not an excuse for a weather community to ignore. A true weather enthusiast is someone who watches, studies etc the weather all year. Weather is all year, there are too many who seem to be drugged on winter. They are IMO not true weather enthusiasts.

 

 

Yes! For this reason I also don't wish for one weather type to dominate the whole autumn either. In summary, I would like a warm first half to autumn then a cool second half to autumn, the change timed roughly around when the clocks do. I would like a warm and sunny September, but not of the 2014 sort as that was horrifically boring, more something along the lines of 2005 with some thunderstorms thrown in and actual late heat. It would be nice if some warmth or at least sunny weather could continue into October, something along the lines of 2008 or 2009. November, however I would like to be an active month with some fiercer weather before turning more wintry towards the end.

 

If I could choose, I would like:

 

Sept 1st-10th 2005; 11th-17th 2003; 18th-19th 2014; 20th-30th 2006

Oct 1st-5th 2002; 6th-12th 2008; 13th-19th 2009; 20th-24th 2011; 25th-31st 2009

Nov 1st-7th 2009; 8th-13th 2010; 14th-30th 2005

[feb1991blizzard]

Totally agree on both points believe it or not, the second one I couldn't put it better myself although everyone defends the met and say they are the best in the world so there must be some validity in it, I have never said I am a sun or summer enthusiast, I am snow and cold enthusiast and don't dress it up any other way.

 

And in fact its got to a stupid level now as well where my whole life is dominated by which way a model run goes in wintertime. I used to be like that at school but since Feb 2009 ive got even worse.

[Costa Del Fal]

And in fact its got to a stupid level now as well where my whole life is dominated by which way a model run goes in wintertime. I used to be like that at school but since Feb 2009 ive got even worse.

How is it dominated by the Models if You don't mind me asking?

[feb1991blizzard]

How is it dominated by the Models if You don't mind me asking?

 

Like making sure I am around if an important run is coming out, having the ECM berlin strat charts set up for the morning so I can just reach over and click etc, etc

[reef]

And back to Autumn discussion...

[Don]

Those CFSv2 Autumn charts look very similar to those setups that dominated many of the Autumns during the 1997-2007 period. I hope they don't come off but wouldn't be at all surprised if they do.

Edited July 14, 2015 by Don

[damianslaw]

5 year cycles are interesting, 2010 dry and cold with an infamous end, 2005 dry throughout and very mild but with a cold second half Nov, 2000 wettest on record, 1995 warm Oct, wet Sept, some snow in Nov, 1990 average, 1985 cold Nov snowy, 1980 early snow...

 

Mmm could be an interesting but who pattern matches!..