Autumn 2015

[Costa Del Fal]

I couldn't have timed mine more perfectly!

Indeed you did. Hopefully though the surf will turn a bit more exciting this coming week though.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

Off on holiday to Woolacombe, Devon tomorrow, just as the settled spell ends. Cant win 'em all I suppose. Just hope I win Saturday's Lottery instead!

 

Could be good surf though!! Every cloud.....etc

[MP-R]

Off on holiday to Woolacombe, Devon tomorrow, just as the settled spell ends. Cant win 'em all I suppose. Just hope I win Saturday's Lottery instead!

 

Always risky holidaying in the UK at any time of the year but especially in autumn. However the rain should clear through pretty quickly leaving a brighter Saturday and Sunday's rain looks like taking a while to get going so you may make the best of a not-ideal stiuation.

[Costa Del Fal]

Indeed tomorrow looks fine now. Sunday and Monday look worst but perhaps better somewhat after that too.

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Made the most of the last decent day for a while - air temp of 21C but the stiff easterly resulted in significant windchill from wet skin.  Went swimming in my local river (Weaver), water temp 17C which is a bit below par for early September, should be 19-20C.

 

 

[Mokidugway]

Made the most of the last decent day for a while - air temp of 21C but the stiff easterly resulted in significant windchill from wet skin.  Went swimming in my local river (Weaver), water temp 17C which is a bit below par for early September, should be 19-20C.

 

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cold !!! Why have those wheelie bins got cup holders ???

[Wildswimmer Pete]

cold !!! Why have those wheelie bins got cup holders ???

That's a floating jetty comprised of interlocked plastic units.  17C cold?  No - this is cold 

 

  

[Mokidugway]

That's a floating jetty comprised of interlocked plastic units.  17C cold?  No - this is cold 

 

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bugger that !!!!! ..

[Methuselah]

That's a floating jetty comprised of interlocked plastic units.  17C cold?  No - this is cold 

 

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Why do you want to float around, in freezing-cold water, Pete?

[Wildswimmer Pete]

Why do you want to float around, in freezing-cold water, Pete?

I'm a bare-skin winter swimmer - it's what I do.

[Mokidugway]

I'm a warm water swimmer !!!..

[Methuselah]

I'm a bare-skin winter swimmer - it's what I do.

I think I'll pass on that, my friend. I don't know how you do it.

[Dancerwithwings]

I'm a warm water swimmer !!! ..

Me also! with a good generous amount of Radox

[Costa Del Fal]

Excellent sunny and warm day in Woolacombe.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Been cool and breezy today, highest temp of 13C, now 12C

[markyo]

Lovely start to the day! 8.9c fresh and comfortable for walking!

[blizzard81]

Not sure where to post this but the Met have issued their Sept update for their global probability maps. Can't link it into my post but it suggests a higher probability of a cooler than average winter.

[Gael_Force]

Not sure where to post this but the Met have issued their Sept update for their global probability maps. Can't link it into my post but it suggests a higher probability of a cooler than average winter.

Here you go.  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Looks like a -NAO signal for late winter as the NDJ period has +NAO

[Hocus Pocus]

Here you go.  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Looks like a -NAO signal for late winter as the NDJ period has +NAO

On the December - February charts it's showing a -NAO,would this not be a overlap and a switch would be sometime in December?

[Relativistic]

Autumn proper out there now. Thick, dark cloudcover with the rain coming down and a temperature of 13C.

[damianslaw]

Autumnal feeling day, generally overcast and feeling quite fresh after a very fresh start. Trees are taking on there autumnal hues, however, acorns and blackberries are slow to come out this year. Anyone else notice this...

[marksiwnc]

Autumnal feeling day, generally overcast and feeling quite fresh after a very fresh start. Trees are taking on there autumnal hues, however, acorns and blackberries are slow to come out this year. Anyone else notice this...

A lot less blackberries this year and squirrels are everywhere

[Airedalejoe]

Blackberries are weeks behind, presume because of the cold summer?

[damianslaw]

Blackberries are weeks behind, presume because of the cold summer?

 

Possibly more the cool late spring maybe? followed by a generally cool summer with little heat around here, the big difference compared to 2013 which saw a notably chilly spring, but was followed by the very warm July. Last year was anomalously mild/warm throughout, hence the very early start to autumn season, it makes this year feel very late, but perhaps only a little later than normal. This should be peak blackberry season here. Would be interested to see if those in the south and south west are still awaiting peak blackberry season.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Here you go.  http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Looks like a -NAO signal for late winter as the NDJ period has +NAO

 

I've had a look myself. The GLOSEA model which these ensemble maps are based on seems to be suggesting the possibility of a very unsettled, stormy autumn followed by an increasingly blocked, cold winter period. I think this seems to be the progression which I have seen touted by a few so it's something to keep an eye on as autumn progresses. A very 09/10 progression.

 

Interestingly the model also keeps that anomalously cold patch of water out to our west.

 

One last thing to note...the drift from the raging +NAO autumn pattern to the very -ve NAO winter pattern on this model is quite pronounced so maybe this model is picking up on the likelihood of a fairly major SSW late Dec/early Jan time?

Edited September 14, 2015 by CreweCold