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Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes


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Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City

Hi Paul, what do you feel about tomorrow night into Saturday for our neck?

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Anything unusual
  • Location: Worthing, West Sussex

Just started raining here. Obviously thunder free.

It feels so fresh out too

Gonna have to hate on the French almost as much as the Germans!

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Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley

Hi Paul, what do you feel about tomorrow night into Saturday for our neck?

 

Estofex already issuing a Level 2 for just South of the Uk is a good thing, could be some intense Supercells over NE France and Benelux, what tends to happen with these is they create their own cold pools aloft which promotes MCS Initiation, now if that can be in a favourable position eg stretch across to the Brest Peninsula then expect a North moving MCS To affect us overnight Friday into Saturday morning, I am pretty sure when Estofex update tonight the Day 1 for Friday will include a Level 1 over the Uk for said MCS Moving North at the end of that forecast period (eg tomorrow evening)

 

So its all dependant on what happens in Froggieland tomorrow! Keep an eye on the radar around 4-6pm tomorrow I would suggest

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Who are Convective Weather Uk Harry ?

Got a Link to that ?

It's the rebranded UKASF, who incidentally pretty much nailed yesterday

Www.convectiveweather.co.uk

Some strikes over the SW, lol...bloody typical as I sit here sweltering under grey stratified mess! Seems to be as he heavier rain is arriving there...wonder if that will happen nearer my neck of the woods.

Edited by Harry
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Posted
  • Location: Redcar, Cleveland
  • Location: Redcar, Cleveland

There appears to be hail now falling on the cam at Dawlish and more strikes appearing near Exeter.

Edited by Darandio
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Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover

I wonder if any of the other bits of rain will re intensify and produce some thunder like that bit in the SW peninsular. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Much more northerly veer on that stuff over the channel.

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Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: Exeter, Devon

I've not heard anything yet on the North side of Exeter, it's still a few miles to the south west of us

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Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

Suns coming out to play here - may help to "warm things up a bit" before the Exeter potential storm gets here

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Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)

Some interesting developments here already.

Looks ominous...suggests fair bit of moisture up there!

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Posted
  • Location: The North Kent countryside
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: The North Kent countryside

I'm hoping if anything happens, I'll be home from work in time. The office has rubbish views.

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes

wow thats cool!

Thanks! Hoping that there will be some more action here later. Saw some amazing strikes to the west during the early hours yesterday but that was pretty much it. If I could have a storm like that monster that hit the north west of England last night, I would be very, very happy! 

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Sun's out here, feeling humid, 22.1°C.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Isolated heavy, and possibly severe, thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday evening across parts of England and Wales. These are likely to become more frequent later and spread northwards towards southern Scotland. Some torrential downpours are possible leading to localised surface water flooding, with large hail and frequent lightning also possible hazards.

The public should be aware that there is a chance of some very localised significant disruption

On Friday evening another hot and increasingly humid airmass is expected to spread into the south from the Continent. This airmass looks conducive to the development of isolated thunderstorms during the evening across England and Wales which could become more frequent later in the night as they spread northwards towards Scotland. With large amounts of energy again available in this atmosphere storms could be severe, with torrential downpours and large hail. 30 mm of rain is possible in less than an hour, with as much as 50 mm possible in 3 hours very locally.

Large uncertainty remains regarding areas most at risk from storms, and many areas will miss these altogether, staying largely dry. However, where they do develop, disruption is possible.

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Posted
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme aside from heat. Pref cold and snow
  • Location: Live Hatfield Herts / Work - In the City

Estofex already issuing a Level 2 for just South of the Uk is a good thing, could be some intense Supercells over NE France and Benelux, what tends to happen with these is they create their own cold pools aloft which promotes MCS Initiation, now if that can be in a favourable position eg stretch across to the Brest Peninsula then expect a North moving MCS To affect us overnight Friday into Saturday morning, I am pretty sure when Estofex update tonight the Day 1 for Friday will include a Level 1 over the Uk for said MCS Moving North at the end of that forecast period (eg tomorrow evening)

 

So its all dependant on what happens in Froggieland tomorrow! Keep an eye on the radar around 4-6pm tomorrow I would suggest

Thanks Paul, bloody french, holding on to our storms. They cant run a port, and now they wont let the storms go....

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Posted
  • Location: Motherwell
  • Location: Motherwell

Newbie here!  Last night we got very little in the way of thundery activity at my location (Motherwell) though some only a few miles further east saw quite a bit.  Hoping for much more this evening, forecast this morning seemed to indicate that early-mid evening time storms should roll up from the South (those currently approaching the south-west of England).  Most forecasts I've seen don't support what the local BBC have predicted though, wondering what our chances are of faring better this evening (and again Saturday/Sunday supposedly).

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Posted
  • Location: Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, warmth, and thunder.
  • Location: Warwickshire

post-17472-0-62044300-1435830747_thumb.j

The channel is killing those storms... one by one.

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