Storm & Convective Discussion - 02/07/15 Onward - Heat & Plumes

[Mokidugway]

Based upon various models and past experience I have created a crude diagram of my thoughts.  Storms start to fire in a line from Cardiff down towards IOW and move north.  One batch follows the M1 and the other the M6, diverging around Sheffield / Leeds / Hudds and then rejoining just north of Leeds before heading directly to Newcastle.  The black area is the area of most severe disappointment.

the map drawings are getting rude !!!.

[A.J]

Great storm video there Aj! That's one of my favorites.

I love this one from Malta too especially after 1 minute into the video:

 

Absolutely mental!!

Re, the lightning flash at 39 seconds in, I can imagine the conversation......

"So, if you count the number of seconds between the lightning and subsequent thunder, devide by 3, you get the distance of the lightning in kilometers, so how far away was it?"

"By my calculations, about 5 bloody meters pal, I've pooped myself!!!"

lol

[Harsh Climate]

Why do they need to ?

 

Usually a red warning gets issued as an event has started like the Devon situation about 5 years ago, there is not even a thunderstorm yet so your arguement is pretty much invalid.

 

Also the area highlighted by the met is mainly for a severe MCS And not dangerous storms, yes they may contain hail to severe limits but would expect the main concerns is the amount of rainfall due to 35-40mm PWAT Values and that would not fall into the Criteria unlike the Cumbria event of training rainfall again quite a few years ago

 

You have misread my post, I never said there should be a red warning issued beforehand. 

 

I said ''I wonder if the met office will issue an amber alert later or even a red warning?''

 

I was only asking a question about whether one might be issued later, so hardly makes my argument invalid.

[Nick L]

You have misread my post, I never said there should be a red warning issued beforehand. 

 

I said ''I wonder if the met office will issue an amber alert later or even a red warning?''

 

I was only asking a question about whether one might be issued later, so hardly makes my argument invalid.

 

I think purely because of the low confidence in storm forecasting, it will remain as a yellow.

[Cookie]

Interesting and brief comment to chuck into the mix...

 

Early this morning Meto forecast of precip for my area was 5%.  Up to 40% chance of precip now.

 

This suggests a change in the Meto and I think the core area to be will between Eastbourne and Bournemouth if you're on the South Coast.  Then move northwards.  Could be an interesting an active night.

 

Watch AND listen carefully to the forecasts.  They're not saying what some people think!

I'm down in Bournemouth now this is music to my ears

[JRMcLeod]

Im no expert but thought i'd share my projections for thie evening.  Whatever happens, i hope those of you that want a storm see one and those of you that don't want one sleep through it.

 

[Spikecollie]

I wonder if the met office will issue an amber alert later or even a red warning?

 

Surely if a severe storm does develop as they expect they will do, that must warrant a red warning? IMO they won't and that is where the met office fail in my eyes, they are so poor at keeping the public informed in developing severe weather situations or when they are happening!

I was under a yellow warning for Wednesday night, and had a light rain symbol, but ended up with a supercell thunderstorm - ignore the warnings (which are to protect life and property if possible) (with the exception of ESTOFEX who got Wed. bang on (excuse the pun))  and symbols and watch the sky!

Edited July 3, 2015 by Spikecollie

[A.J]

Based upon various models and past experience I have created a crude diagram of my thoughts.  Storms start to fire in a line from Cardiff down towards IOW and move north.  One batch follows the M1 and the other the M6, diverging around Sheffield / Leeds / Hudds and then rejoining just north of Leeds before heading directly to Newcastle.  The black area is the area of most severe disappointment.

Interesting map, I've never been under a large scrotum warning IMBY before!

I'll fetch me coat...lol

[Nick L]

I do agree though that the Met Office can sometimes be frustratingly slow in updating real-time situations. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

All these warning maps over England.. Storms goona be Over Ireland now you watch 

[Cookie]

I do agree though that the Met Office can sometimes be frustratingly slow in updating real-time situations.

Agreed we. Same with the wind storm we got in January

[jmatt81]

You have misread my post, I never said there should be a red warning issued beforehand. 

 

I said ''I wonder if the met office will issue an amber alert later or even a red warning?''

 

I was only asking a question about whether one might be issued later, so hardly makes my argument invalid.

 

Last summer the MetO issued a wide amber warning across England for severe T-storms. Very little happened. As is the case with this kind of event it is all or nothing. And sometimes it surprises everyone with being a nowcast thing. IMO there is very little point in issuing a red warning for a storm already in progress which is on the move.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, however, to see certain regions upped to an amber nearer the time as models update.

[sparky1972]

its nice not to be reading that Lincolnshire is going to be the best place to get the storms tonight, thats gives us half a chance, lol

[Paul Sherman]

I do agree though that the Met Office can sometimes be frustratingly slow in updating real-time situations. 

 

And until we get warnings real time they will never change Nick

 

Thats the main difference with this tin pot country, there would have been Red Severe Thunderstorm warnings on those twin Supercells on Wednesday and on a fair few others as well but no way will it happen in this country due to radar restraints

 

I can only see an Amber for excessive rainfall for areas further west for tonight, its a Plain old Spanish Plume MCS, Give me back the 1980's Please!!!! When we had a satelite picture and a weather presenter and saw a biog black blob on the screen moving north towards the Uk, it just felt better then when we had no internet

[Andy Pepler]

can i get excited yet and do i put my cams online ... ....after this week .. iv just thrown faff all to the wind ..

[Spikecollie]

Interesting map, I've never been under a large scrotum warning IMBY before!

I'll fetch me coat...lol

It's the size of those balls that'll be coming down! Sorry...

[Paul Sherman]

Last summer the MetO issued a wide amber warning across England for severe T-storms. Very little happened. As is the case with this kind of event it is all or nothing. And sometimes it surprises everyone with being a nowcast thing. IMO there is very little point in issuing a red warning for a storm already in progress which is on the move.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, however, to see certain regions upped to an amber nearer the time as models update.

 

Good grief, try telling that to people who rode out the 1950's Supercell that had a Tornado on the ground from NW London to the North Norfolk Coast, if that happened today I am sure they might want a warning or two - Lol

[Wet'n'Dry]

Interesting map, I've never been under a large scrotum warning IMBY before!

I'll fetch me coat...lol

 

Need a helmet up north!!!

[Gordon Webb]

And until we get warnings real time they will never change Nick

 

Thats the main difference with this tin pot country, there would have been Red Severe Thunderstorm warnings on those twin Supercells on Wednesday and on a fair few others as well but no way will it happen in this country due to radar restraints

 

I can only see an Amber for excessive rainfall for areas further west for tonight, its a Plain old Spanish Plume MCS, Give me back the 1980's Please!!!! When we had a satelite picture and a weather presenter and saw a biog black blob on the screen moving north towards the Uk, it just felt better then when we had no internet

 

no internet red phone boxes 4 television stations spectrum comnputers the height of personal computing yeah would like to go back to those days

[ChezWeather]

Last summer the MetO issued a wide amber warning across England for severe T-storms. Very little happened. As is the case with this kind of event it is all or nothing. And sometimes it surprises everyone with being a nowcast thing. IMO there is very little point in issuing a red warning for a storm already in progress which is on the move.

 

I wouldn't be surprised, however, to see certain regions upped to an amber nearer the time as models update.

Met Office could make much better use of things like twitter IMO, if a strong supercell is moving towards a location and it is dropping large hail then a warning would be warranted. 

 

Obviously folk on here would not need this because most of us would be watching the radar and hoping that the storm veers towards our location, but the general public would benefit from being informed as the storm is happening, rather than being informed based on a prediction. 

[Nick L]

And until we get warnings real time they will never change Nick

 

Thats the main difference with this tin pot country, there would have been Red Severe Thunderstorm warnings on those twin Supercells on Wednesday and on a fair few others as well but no way will it happen in this country due to radar restraints

 

I can only see an Amber for excessive rainfall for areas further west for tonight, its a Plain old Spanish Plume MCS, Give me back the 1980's Please!!!! When we had a satelite picture and a weather presenter and saw a biog black blob on the screen moving north towards the Uk, it just felt better then when we had no internet

 

The problem with having proper real-time warnings like they have in the US is that we simply don't have the infrastructure in place to get them broadcast.

 

As you well know, when a tornado/severe t-storm warning gets issued in the states, it gets immediately broadcast on TV, radio, through mobiles etc. But we simply don't have that functionality here.

 

Plus, the number of occasions where it would be needed would probably not be worth the cost in having it in place. 

 

I was more referring to how on some occasions, when a forecast warning obviously hasn't gone to plan or is completely at odds with model data, the Met don't rush to change it.

 

I think on the whole the warning system we have is adequate, but in some rare instances as we saw with that supercell in the NE the other day, it's pretty useless.

[Paul90]

My hopes for tonight.

 

[Paul Sherman]

The problem with having proper real-time warnings like they have in the US is that we simply don't have the infrastructure in place to get them broadcast.

 

As you well know, when a tornado/severe t-storm warning gets issued in the states, it gets immediately broadcast on TV, radio, through mobiles etc. But we simply don't have that functionality here.

 

Plus, the number of occasions where it would be needed would probably not be worth the cost in having it in place. 

 

I was more referring to how on some occasions, when a forecast warning obviously hasn't gone to plan or is completely at odds with model data, the Met don't rush to change it.

 

I think on the whole the warning system we have is adequate, but in some rare instances as we saw with that supercell in the NE the other day, it's pretty useless.

 

Surely as Chezweather says Twatter could be an option for the rare occurences from reports of people downstream getting affected, would not cost anything to set up either, wanna set up an App ? Lol

[Nick L]

Surely as Chezweather says Twatter could be an option for the rare occurences from reports of people downstream getting affected, would not cost anything to set up either, wanna set up an App ? Lol

 

I'll pitch the idea to my boss next week 

[Mapantz]

I thought i'd do a map aswell.

 

Zone 1 is specific to potential supercell  development

Zone 2 is a 40% probability of lightning within a 50 billion light year point.

 

 

I'll tweak it when the 12Z data becomes available.

Edited July 3, 2015 by Mapantz