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Model Output Discussion - 1st July Onwards 18z--->


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Posted
  • Location: East Ham, London
  • Location: East Ham, London

Afternoon all :)

 

12Z will be rolling out soon but 06Z was fairiy uninspiring if you're looking for prolonged warmth and settled weather:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

 

The extended period of negative NAO is coming to an end as the Azores HP returns to its more customary location but unfortunately that's not enough as all that does is usher in Atlantic-dominated conditions with heights lowering to the north. The jet is too strong to allow adequate ridging from the SW and there isn't much hope under this set up for more than a passing glance of warmer air from the south.

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Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

Looking very good for Thursday of next week with the mean trough moving westwards allowing southerly winds and pretty respectable temperatures over the uk and possibly very warm in the south east:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=150&mode=0

As happy as Larry with that chart.

 

The GFS 12z for next week makes for refreshing viewing. Gone are the unseasonable cool temperatures and showers, and its looking like the low to mid 20s will be achieved for many. The highest temperatures to be found as usual across SE and E England.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

UKMO not impressed to day 6.

 

Rukm1441.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

There is a lot to like about the Gfs 12z next week and further ahead too. Looking at next week first and pressure rises to the east of the UK which helps to stall Atlantic low pressure and enable a lovely spell of summery weather to develop across the southern half of the UK, there isn't much rain at all next week on this run and most of what there is affects the more north western parts of the UK. Looking further ahead, really nice benign charts with a lot of very warm and sunny weather...this would be fantastic following the cool unsettled dross this week. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Lol, Frosty...Either you're an optimist or I need an optometrist!  :D  :D

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Lol, Frosty...Either you're an optimist or I need an optometrist!  :D  :D

LOL Pete I'm just trying to lift the gloom, there hasn't been much good weather recently but the gfs 12z would bring summery weather back to the UK..Fingers crossed.

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

LOL Pete I'm just trying to lift the gloom, there hasn't been much good weather recently but the gfs 12z would bring summery weather back to the UK..Fingers crossed.

I know. And someone has to! :D

Finally some summery charts to be had in the south gathering pace. August may be a good one!

A month ago, we were saying the same thing about July! :D

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

As far as I can see Nouska none of the models show any inclination for amplification of the MJO, certainly for the first two weeks of August.

http://www.frontierweather.com/MJOGraphics/mjoanalogs.html

 

The UKMO does.

 

I remember writing a post in June about how the UKMO was out on a limb with an amplified forecast - it was too progressive but nearer the mark than the others.

 

Today's forecast.     ALL_emean_phase_full.gif

 

The June one I mentioned.    Nuq5dcA.gif

 

Anyway, not sure it is a good omen as the composites I linked to show more of the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The GEFS anomalies tonight still pressing ahead with the pattern change upstream post T144 losing the LP NE Canada and weakening the trough to our NW by T240. So up to the latter the north of the UK will still probably be mainly influenced by low pressure at intervals but the southern half will be more subject to interjections from the Azores HP to the SW. After T240 until the end of the ext period the weak trough is confined to the Iceland area and a more westerly weak zonal flow around the Azores HP still to the SW becomes more established bringing settled and dry weather to the whole of the UK although temps still around average or a tad below. This is along the lines of the EC32 if perhaps slightly earlier.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

ECM and UKMO fairly close at T144 - heat nearby, but possibly just a "Kent Clipper"

UW144-21.GIF?31-19

ECM1-144.GIF?31-0

 

Further on, ECM T192 would be a good place to get to. Although T216 and T240 go downhill, I think there would also be a chance that the trough would remain a little further north, if we did get to this stage:

 

ECM1-192.GIF?31-0

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Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening all, the all familiar changeable south  and unsettled north up to T+96hrs Pointless looking at precip charts at this range...Interesting that ecm and gfs show a shortwave trough by T+96hrs, will be interesting if this is a feature in the next 24hrs..... :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The NOAA 8-14 not agreeing with the GEFS and keeps the upper trough over the UK thus keeping the generally unsettled scenario with the HP pushed SE and SW.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Great post Vorticity and I absolutely agree with your thoughts. Just an extra thought though, strong ridges over Scandi often get underestimated by models, could we see it push back towards the UK mid-month if it gets established? Pure speculation of course! (and rather up against it considering the strength of the Atlantic)

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Nothing much to add after that very informative post by Vorticity except to say the latter stage of the ext ECM anomaly still has the upper trough in place over the UK. The GEFS would seem to be on it's own.

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Vorticity.

 

Is the heat in Central and Eastern Europe and our cooler temps linked to the current El Nino?

 

Michael Ventrice â€@MJVentrice 5h5 hours ago

It's interesting other El Nino states similar to the current event saw more heat waves o/central-eastern Europe

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Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

With August on our doorstep, the UK is facing a period of unsettled weather especially for northern and western parts...

I agree with the others above. A lot of thought has been put into that analysis and the part about the contrast between the surface and upper heights was interesting. Good job!  :good: 

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(With the amount of knowledgeable posts, handy input and entertaining content from numerous members on here, would love to give more of you an award really). 

 

Just quickly looking through the main models and it does look as though the changeable conditions will continue with those troughs/low pressure systems to the West/North-West of the UK bringing some rain, showers and windy spells to places at times. And South/South-Eastern areas seeing the best of the less unsettled and brightest, warmest conditions with higher pressure looking to be more in control in those parts at times. 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.

Northern parts are going to get the worst of the conditions according to ecm ensembles chart up to 240 hours ahead wheras southern parts aren't going to have it too bad at all:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=0&type=1&archive=0

Which I can broadly support really.

 

The Icelandic Met office now has the ECM T+360 ensemble mean - looking similar to the NOAA one.

 

10 day.   ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean  15 day  ec-ens_nat_gh500mean_gh500std_thk500mean

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Time for a new thread for a new Month.

 

New thread here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83676-model-output-discussion-1st-august-00z/

 

Thanks PM.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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